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[-] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I'll read the rebuttal of EA, but I'll trade you if you read this EA unmanifesto.

Effective altruism distills all of ethics into an overriding variable: suffering.

This is actually not true. Givewell, for instance, publishes their findings as spreadsheets and lets you set weights on different aspects of human experience you consider to be good or bad.

Effective altruism discounts the ethical dimensions of relationships, the rich braid of elements that make up a “good life,” and the moral worth of a species or a wetland.

This is also just objectively not true and suggests to me you've never even talked to an effective altruist. But it is generally believed by EAs that horrible suffering, such as the kinds of suffering caused by easily-preventable illnesses, is much worse than any of the subtle and varied experiences of a good life which can be bought with the same amount of money are good. So if you just want to "do good," donate to stopping horrible illnesses before donating to subtler causes.

But setting that aside, the idea of charity is rooted in the theory that you need a popular buy-in before you can achieve significant lasting change.

I actually think this is the idea of socialism, not charity. Ozy Brennan again, on difference between leftism and EA:

I think neglectedness is actually the core disagreement between effective altruists and many leftists [...] Leftists emphasize organizing and mass participation. From a leftist perspective, all things equal, the fact that a movement is big is a point in favor of joining it. Leftists believe that nothing you do is going to do much good unless it’s part of a broad, coordinated effort to permanently shift the balance of power. [...] From an effective altruist perspective, all things equal, the fact that a movement is big is a point against joining it: if lots of people are working on janitorial justice, probably the problem is already well-handled.

I don't actually believe this about leftism personally, but I think this should be taken evidence against charity being rooted in the need for a popular buy-in.

When you’re relying on a few plutocrats to dictate philanthropic social policy, you’re banking heavily on their omniscience.

Agreed. You may have missed this, but I'm advocating for socialism, not charity.

[-] [email protected] 0 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Givewell, for instance, publishes their findings as spreadsheets and lets you set weights on different aspects of human experience you consider to be good or bad.

This is still a fixation on an individual subjective human perspective. Which is a bit confusing, given that the EA manifesto explicitly leans on Bayesian statistical analysis. The end result is a round peg (perceptions and emotional priors) being shoved into a square hole (hard numerical figures). It also isn't effective as a policy guide, because the layman fiddling with weights on a spreadsheet still doesn't have any actual control over the scale of political economy that a government or a mega-millionaire commands.

This is also just objectively not true and suggests to me you’ve never even talked to an effective altruist.

We're running into a Jordan Peterson line of argument, wherein "you just don't understand my line of thinking" is used to dismiss critiques you're not equipped to rebut.

Can I counter with "You've never even talked to a non-effective altruist?" and conclude you've been too cloistered to explore ideas outside the EA space? Or would you consider that a personal attack rather than a statistically informed observation?

horrible suffering, such as the kinds of suffering caused by easily-preventable illnesses, is much worse than any of the subtle and varied experiences of a good life

This isn't either/or. You can go back to the old Bill Gates plan to mitigate overpopulation in the third world. He initially tried to push out contraception to the local populations of communities he'd hoped lower birthrates would help. Instead, what he discovered was routine vaccination and standard modernized health care drastically reduced infant mortality and resulted in parents choosing to have fewer kids as a result.

In hindsight, we discovered similar patterns of behavior across the US and Europe, Latin America, India, and China. But as a knock-on effect, we've seen the US/EU focus so exclusively on disease mitigation as a strategy for improving relations in countries they wish to ally with that they neglect their domestic populations (who are comparatively much wealthier, but see the foreign aid as coming at their expense). The iterative result has been a series of claw-backs of positive disease mitigation policy fueled by a popular media that's vilified the very act of disease mitigation and denigrated the people who received it as subhuman. And the true irony of the affair is in how many of these popular media institutions are owned and operated by self-proclaimed EAs.

The EA strategy of trying to decouple and distill policies into their individual components, then min-max solutions at a spreadsheet level, have produced a backlash their narrow focus failed to anticipate.

I think this should be taken evidence against charity being rooted in the need for a popular buy-in.

Until the AI wonderkin can fully divorce themselves from the public at-large, they're going to need to rely on human labor and ingenuity to accomplish large, complex projects. The strongest card that EAs have to play is typically their ability to quickly roll up a highly educated, multi-talented workforce underneath them. Even then, they're notoriously inefficient in their application of these skilled technicians.

But we're already seeing the results of the Bullshit Jobs and Bullshit Bosses, as the bigger Tech companies stumble through the 2020s. Without people who want to work beside you on a project they are deeply invested in, the work slows down and the work product becomes flimsier and more ineffectual. In the end, you're left with Bloomberg 2020 tier work, where you've got tens of thousands of people collecting a paycheck to do nothing.

I’m advocating for socialism, not charity.

Socialism requires a popular consensus to function. You can't impose a collective project by executive fiat.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Bayesianism is about reconciling your squishy priors with hard math. If there's a round peg and a square hole, the square hole is Frequentism.

I don't understand your point about Bill Gates. You're saying he had one plan, but then found another plan worked better. What does this have to do with EA? Givewell isn't an armchair-thinktank, it does pretty solid research and analysis comparing the effectiveness of real-world charities that already exist.

The loss of USAID was really bad. Here's EA Scott Alexander talking about just how bad the scaling back of USAID is. If there were self-proclaimed EA's involved with villifying USAID, that is ironic indeed.

Socialism requires a popular consensus to function. You can’t impose a collective project by executive fiat.

Well I agree. I don't have executive fiat. I'd like to increase the amount of popular buy-in. This is one of the main reasons I post on Lemmy. However, that socialism requires concensus whereas charity does not -- this is exactly Ozy Brennan's point. So I think that we don't disagree at all. Ozy's observation is that EA charity organizations generally focus on the opposite of buy-in; they look for areas of neglect -- places where big strides can be made because other people aren't working hard on those problems yet. Perhaps because they sound strange. Like electrocuting shrimp so they don't feel pain when they die in factory farms (yes this is a real charity).

[-] [email protected] 0 points 1 day ago

If there’s a round peg and a square hole, the square hole is Frequentism.

Frequentism won't work with a contained set of inputs. But now we're getting into Abstract Algebra rather than probability.

I don’t understand your point about Bill Gates. You’re saying he had one plan, but then found another plan worked better.

I'm saying he kept coming at the problem dead on without exploring the second and third order consequences of did policies.

Lots of maths up front but the models were shit. The end result was a reactionary mess precisely because Gates and his lackeys didn't care about the popular politics of their policies.

Ozy’s observation is that EA charity organizations generally focus on the opposite of buy-in; they look for areas of neglect

The observation that mosquitoe nets and medical interventions have a long term benefit isn't a problem on its face. But, again, Ozy is attacking a complex problem of supply chains and sustainable development from a very boiled down "do things that look good on my spreadsheet" as the "Effective" solution.

When these plans fall apart, because the proponents fail to account for second order problems, they denounce everyone else as another problem they need to strike head on, rather than considering where they went wrong.

Case in point

Poverty and food insecurity are the main reasons why some fishermen in Malawi use mosquito nets as illegal fishing nets, an analysis conducted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Communication Programs has found.

Because the focus was on disease and food security was discounted as a less pressing problem, the primary tool for mitigating disease spread became an environmental catastrophe.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I'm legitimately curious how Abstract Algebra relates here. I thought that was all about group theory and such.

Lots of math but the models were shit

Mkay, but, this doesn't mean math is wrong. It means actual research is needed. Trials and case studies and comparative analysis and so on. Fortunately, that's exactly what givewell does. You can criticize Gates for not predicting second and third order consequences, but I'd argue the only thing we can do in the world where the higher-order consequences are somewhat predictable in advance is preserving the status quo.

The misuse of mosquito nets for fishing is bad, yes -- and depressingly ironic -- but you should check out the Against Malaria Foundation's response, where they say basically the misuse of malaria nets is not very widespread.

[-] [email protected] 0 points 22 hours ago

I’m legitimately curious how Abstract Algebra relates here. I thought that was all about group theory and such.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_theory

In abstract algebra, group theory studies the algebraic structures known as groups. The concept of a group is central to abstract algebra: other well-known algebraic structures, such as rings, fields, and vector spaces, can all be seen as groups endowed with additional operations and axioms.

I got a degree in it, so I know a few things.

this doesn’t mean math is wrong

The application of a model to a set of data which fails to predict outcomes reliably is "Wrong Math".

The big problem with EAs is empirical. They don't deliver on their promises.

The misuse of mosquito nets for fishing is bad, yes – and depressingly ironic – but you should check out the Against Malaria Foundation’s response

The distribution of nets had failed to yield the promised benefits. I site the misuse as a very prominent example of how EAs misjudge externalities, but its one data point in a much broader picture.

If you really want to drop the hammer on EAs - particularly chronic fraudsters like SBF and the Zuckerberg CZI - it is that they're fair more interested in self-enrichment than altruism in the basic sense.

I cite the mosquito netting distribution effects as a very straightforward calculation error, because it is at least superficially a sincere effort with lackluster results. But once you get under the tip of the iceberg, EAs are as riddled with con-artists and bullshitters as any Clinton Foundation or UN Food for Oil initiative.

That's the wages of unilateralism in a nutshell.

[-] [email protected] 1 points 21 hours ago

I got a degree in it, so I know a few things.

Please explain. I took a few courses in group theory, ring theory, etc., though I was never particularly good at it. How does it relate to probability?

Zuckerberg/CZI are not EA, and SBF was disowned by EA. It's not obvious to me that SBF was not interested in altruism, I think he was just catastrophically bad at it.

lackluster results

AMF stopped 20 million cases of malaria in 2023.

[-] [email protected] 0 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago)

Please explain.

Sure, let me just dust off my notes from a decade ago.

How does it relate to probability?

It has to do with the available range of outputs given all available inputs. And the degree to which iterative actions can have a feedback effect.

But the math on this kind of thing gets hairy fast.

Zuckerberg/CZI are not EA, and SBF was disowned by EA.

Zuckerberg hires from the community and its affiliates. Sarah Wynn-Williams being an excellent example.

SBF being disowned after he went broke is hardly a point in the movement's favor.

AMF stopped 20 million cases of malaria in 2023.

The impact of these nets is expected to be

FFS, they printed this in November of 2023. Really getting out ahead of your skis, when you're a data driven organization that's making claims on total reduction in cases before the period is even closed.

To date, I can find no evidence of a 10% drop in malaria cases in any of the targeted countries between '22 and '23.

On the contrary, the WHO reports an 11M case rise from the prior year. Neither have we seen a plunge in cases in '24 or the Q1 & Q2 of '25.

this post was submitted on 13 Jul 2025
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