Image is of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline, which transports gas from Russia to China. This isn't an oil pipeline (such as the ESPO) but I thought it looked cool. Source here.
Trump has recently proposed a 500% tariff on goods from countries that trade with Russia, including India and China (who buy ~70% of Russia's oil output), as well as a 10% additional tariff on goods from countries that "align themselves with BRICS." Considering that China is the largest trading partner of most of the countries on the planet at this point, and India and Brazil are reasonably strong regional players, I'm not sure what exactly "alignment" means, but it could be pretty bad.
Sanctions and tariffs on Russian products have been difficult to achieve in practice. It's easy to write an order to sanction Russia, but much harder to actually enforce these sorts of things because of, for example, the Russian shadow oil fleet, or countries like Kazakhstan acting as covert middlemen (well, as covert as a very sudden oil export boom can be).
Considering that China was pretty soundly victorious last time around, I'm cautiously optimistic, especially because China and India just outright cutting off their supply of energy and fuel would be catastrophic to them (and if Iran and Israel go to war again any time in the near future, it'll only be more disastrous). Barring China and India kowtowing to Trump and copying Europe vis-a-vis Nordstream 2 (which isn't impossible, I suppose), the question is whether China and India will appear to accede to these commands while secretly continuing trade with Russia through middlemen, or if they will be more defiant in the face of American pressure.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
private capital porkies are ecstatic
bitcoin is at 118k, dow at 44k, seems they wriggled their way out of this jam (again), not-curious that with record profits, curious with falling out investment into primary means of production. Just straight worship towards oil/gas/weapons/ai
interestingly, industrial rare metals (silver/copper/palladium, nickel is the exception) going upwards as well, welcome back converter thieves.
it's MMT for markets and MIC
Not to suggest that history will certainly repeat in the same way it did before, but in the lead-up to the crash in 1929, the markets were rising at an absurd pace, yet the gains were extremely brittle and once things broke they broke badly. I don't think anyone knows what is going on right now but it doesn't seem healthy that the market should nearly double its worth in 5 years.
I have doubts. Gov nowadays sets floor prices on financial assets. They will buy up whatever trash needed to prevent it from falling too low if needed.
It shouldn't be seen as much more than moving numbers around.
Yeah true. I guess the bigger question is how long the govt can continue to prop it up. At some point, so long as there aren't major changes in the geopolitical situation, western economies can't just keep running larger and larger deficits forever. The British state already nearly had a bond market collapse in 2022.
The question is, why not?
You have the entire developing world having listened to the IMF that their way to “climb up the value-added chain” is to transform their economy into an export-oriented economy at the expense of serving domestic populations (of course, also under much coercion of the global imperialist institutions like the World Bank), so if no other country is going to take up their surplus export goods, they still have to sell to the country that is willing to run a deficit to buy from them.
The main issue for the US trade deficits comes internally, as decades of de-industrialization (a very deliberate neoliberal policy to crush trade union movements as its economic policies failed to resolve the inflation and later stagflation problems starting in the 1970s) disenfranchised its own domestic working class base, which after enduring the severe impact of the 2008 GFC, finally unleashed their discontent in the form of populist movements in the mid-2010s represented by Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.
What Trump has been doing since his first term (and followed by Biden) was exploring the means to resolve this inherent contradiction of American capitalism - how can the US continue to dominate while also reducing its own trade deficit.
There are plenty of non-Marxist/non-materialist “analyses” on the social media, mostly libertarians who fell for the Austrian school myth, that talks about dollar hegemony in the form of Petrodollar and various other nonsense, but truly one needs to understand it at the real production and consumption level taking place in an international system of free-floating exchange rate regimes (as opposed to the gold standard/Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate regimes that no longer happen and many still cannot come to terms with)
i think they can, because its not really going to anything productive, you are creating numbers buying numbers with numbers.
Bond markets only have the space given to them by the Government. They can peg yields if they choose, a stronger Government wouldn't have collapsed the same way as can be seen by the fact that Trump isn't gone despite record deficits with OBBB (it's not just being the reserve currency issuer). This isn't 'money printing' or inflationary, because it's just moving around numbers, nothing is going to anything real. Giving rich people tax breaks is similar, they get bigger number on their account. It matters to the poor more since poor actually use money, they have taxes and quasi-taxes to pay (rent, food etc).
Edit: The one avenue I can see is if everyone starts converting their currency in forex markets. But not much of a problem with flexible rates and especially not for the western countries high in the currency hierarchy, even the 2022 shitshow in UK didn't cause that much depreciation in the Pound. And if things get too worse like 50-100% instant depreciation, I'm sure theyll impose capital controls.
the issue is that margins have gone from 10 to 20% over pandemic, but if the inflation is gone, that means margins are sticky/real, so therefore by p/e metrics everything is fine, working class is fine with being exploited that much more. Now, consumer spending is tilting even more to upper quintile, but lower quintiles don't seem to be doing much worse*. There is some shit with leverages inside banking system (that they are overleveraged) and consumer debt itself, but with how quickly fed propped up svb, i don't think they are fatal or even a problem, they aren't even doing qe yet
*(vs spending and productivity, working hours have been rough for a long time+rent/medical expenses can be silently fucking everything out of sight of statistics), just roughly the same (inside amerikkka that is)
Ripping copper from the walls going well I see