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this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2025
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The US has had air supremacy in every conflict it has been in for a long time and it hasn’t won a single one of them. It would topple the Iranian regime with a ground invasion, but air strikes won’t do that. And the US would certainly lose an insurgent war just like it did everywhere else.
Air supremacy, on its own, doesn't win wars. It does, however, lead to massive civilian casualties.
So now the Iranian people will bleed because someone wants the imams gone, just like most of the Iranian people do.
Judging from all this I think the US will just kill the theocratic dictator Mr whoever and let Israel do what they want to do next, so there's no winning or losing here to the US at least.
Given that the regime has been around for fifty years, I really doubt that killing the head of state would destroy the state. They have a much deeper bench than that I would assume
They also have decent records of relevant political figures which are in no doubt in the hands of the US.
Seriously, the nazis were able to compile lists of political enemies (suspected to be) in Brtiain 85 years ago.
It's not a stretch to suggest the US knows exactly who is relevant to keeping the regime alive, whom to imprison and whom to kill.
Collapsing a nation is far easier than establishing a new one after all.
The Ba'ath Party was in for almost that long in Iraq. It didn't help them.
Though the Iranian theocracy has more rule by committee, so they're probably more resilient than a paranoid one-man dictatorship.
At least they won't be state level threat anymore.