Image is Israeli interceptors trying and failing to intercept missiles over their cities.
Israel just carried out a widespread bombing of Iran, which has killed a number of senior officials inside Iran (though it seems the leadership is more-or-less intact) as well as a number of civilians. Important facilities have been targeted, but the amount of damage is unknown so far (note that many important Iranian facilities are deep underground, making them both hard to damage but also hard to determine if they are damaged from just satellite imagery, so reports of damage will be he-said-she-said).
It appears the attack took Iran by surprise, given that a residential block was targeted that contained some senior officials - if one saw an attack coming, one would imagine they'd be in bunkers. Nonetheless, like the rest of the Resistance Axis, I suspect that Iran has adapted their military structures to be resistant to decapitation strikes by ensuring that replacement figures are ready to take the place of killed officials.
Iran has delivered a massive missile barrage in response to Israeli aggression, even though Israel is continuing to bomb Iran. Iran is now aware of the location of many important Israeli sites, including secret nuclear sites, due to their recent intelligence haul, giving them a distinct edge.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Israel air superiority does not bode well for Iran
Israel has superiority only in the far west. Just like Ukraine they are in a much weaker position against their opponent. Even so Israel lacks the industrial base and moral to be like Ukraine as well.
Its a faaar weaker country than many imagine. Yet this doesn’t mean that iran would have a cakewalk, especially since they basically cant pull all cards. Western forces can strike from the many bases in the arab satellite states and iran cant block the straight of hormuz without basically declaring war on the world.
Simplicius has a new analysis he says the air superiority was overstated, https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/true-promise-3-iran-responds-with
I mean, Iranian missile superiority doesn't bode well for Israel either. idk what the ratio in value and explosive power between a F-35 and an Iranian missile is but y'know, we're seeing some real actual tangible damage in Israel now, buildings collapsing and shit. even Hezbollah's rockets were symbolic compared to these, and those took down a shitload of surveillance facilities on their border and forced hundreds of thousands of settlers to flee.
not a lot of good boding folks, more and more people are saying this
yeah i'm pretty sure all of this bodes very badly for all of us
Frankly I'm calling bullshit on the claim of Israeli air superiority, yeah if you keep sending a 100 jets every 12 hours you'll eventually achieve a form of "superiority" somewhere in Iran for a couple hours
But that's not gonna last long, Iran is a 1000km from Israel and F-35s are finicky and high maintenance boondoggles, I gureentee it more craft have already been taken out of commission due to severe maintenance issues then Iran has shot down
Attrition favors Iran in this fight
I think it might also be the semantics of superiority vs supremacy. A temporary suppression of air defenses works great for an attacking force, but does not necessarily mean your enemy cannot defend its skies if they choose to (say, for a high value target that is worth losing AD units to protect).
Meanwhile, the attacker must send SEAD/DEAD units with every sortie. That means less munitions, more maintenance, and still doesnt totally negate risks of strikes. Those strikes are also much more likely to include standoff weapons, drones, and cruise missiles which have limitations of their own.
I think Israel can gain temporary superiority, just like they can over Yemen, but just like in Yemen the lack of supremacy means that Israel cannot use tactics they would use to hit a target in, say, Syria. or even Lebanon.
True. I'm wondering how many targets Israel can take out during this period
beyond further assassinations or nuclear weapons I think we're seeing the limits of Israeli airpower. We've seen bunker busters, cruise missiles, even FPV drones, but since that first day the strikes are less ambitious and havent escalated in power but rather their targets.
lots of unwell boding today