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Marshmallow Test (lemmus.org)

submitted 1 day ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

50 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Super-Fun-Pak Comix by Ruben Bolling for May 9, 2025 | GoComics

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

This experiment was not specifically about whether a kid would wait for the second marshmellow or not (which would be delayed by 20+ minutes), nor whether they would play with the roomful of toys, but to see how they grew up. The real test was to catch up with the adults and see how 'successful' they'd become. The experimenters found that those children who waited for the second marshmellow achieved higher grades and had more 'successful' better-paying careers.

It's the concept of delayed rewards vs immediate rewards and is prevalent in the world of machine learning.

[–] [email protected] 25 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

Excerpts from Wikipedia:

A replication attempt with a sample from a more diverse population, over 10 times larger than the original study, showed only half the effect of the original study. The replication suggested that economic background, rather than willpower, explained the other half.

Work done in 2018 and 2024 found that the Marshmallow Test "does not reliably predict adult functioning".

It's great for a confirmation bias, but such a study is way too simplistic to really reach a conclusion. Oh, and:

The results seemed to indicate that not thinking about a reward enhances the ability to delay gratification, rather than focusing attention on the future reward.