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Half-Life 3 is reportedly playable in its entirety and could be announced this year
(www.engadget.com)
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I'll wait for the official announcement before getting hyped up.
After Oblivion, I wonder if they would announce it and release it at the same time, too.
No because its not a rehash of old shit.
Shadow dropping isn't a new thing Bethesda just invented, so I doubt Oblivion would have anything to do with it.
Valve does what Valve wants to do. Always have. And they don't have a tendency to announce anything years in advance to generate hype, because frankly, I don't think they care.