this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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Wheel got you covered
Nope!
I wish I had your restraint. EVERY time!
First three times I got the wheel it triggered.
I didn't understand the memes.
Then it never happened again.
But poly is going to fix all my problems!! At least thats what the OF model told me.
I don't care what the dev says: that thing ain't 1:4.
It's 1:4 but everytime the card is played a new set of 1:4 starts, so fuck knows what the actual odds are.
Humans are bad at probability, and that's mostly why they gamble too.
Every wheel draw is supposed to be independent (it's not totally so because computer "random" is really a pseudo-random algorithm, but close enough). So every time you draw, the odds are 1:4. Previous draws don't matter.
On an infinitely large number of draws, you'd see a 1/4 success rate. This doesn't mean you can't fail a dozen times in a row (the probability of that is (3/4)^12, about 3%... It happens).
It's always 1:4 then but that doesn't mean in 4 goes you're guaranteed a win.
Of course it does, or the odds wouldn't be 1 in 4...
If you flip a coin, you "start" a new set of 1 in 2 odds too -- that's what makes it always 50/50