this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2024
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Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.


The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.

Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.

Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
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English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 12 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

That's the opposite of what Derek is saying in his newsletter:

Events in Syria are moving farther and faster than they have at any time since insurgents swarmed into Aleppo city over the weekend, and the time remaining for Bashar al-Assad as Syrian president may be closer to hours than months or years. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and affiliated groups followed up their seizure of the city of Hama on Thursday with a rapid advance all the way to the outskirts of the city of Homs by Friday evening. They’ve obviously met little resistance from the Syrian military or the residents of the towns and villages they’ve swept through along the way, and it’s unclear how much of a fight they can expect in Homs. If they’re able to take that city—and there’s no reason at this point to think they can’t or won’t—the main question surrounding this offensive will shift (if it hasn’t already) from “how much longer can the insurgents keep this up?” to “when is Assad going to leave the country?” That’s assuming he hasn’t yet done so—very sketchy claims are circulating via social media that he’s already fled.

A rebel seizure of Homs would cut the main direct route between Damascus and the coastal northwestern provinces of Tartus and Latakia, which are home to Russian military bases and the Assad family’s main social support base. But it is not the only front on which the Syrian government is now foundering. To the east, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces group took control of the city of Deir Ezzor on Friday, which is a huge development if one that is less immediately critical for Assad. Deir Ezzor was the Syrian government’s main hub in the eastern part of the country and its loss leaves the SDF in a much stronger position though it’s now facing heightened threats from Turkey-backed rebel groups. To the south, insurgent factions have been battling security forces in Daraa province and late Friday the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that they had taken control of the city of Daraa. The Jordanian government closed its only border crossing into Syria on Friday due to militant activity on the Syrian side.

The United Nations estimates that some 370,000 people have been displaced since the rebels began their offensive last Wednesday, and it’s warning of the risk that up to 1.5 million might eventually be displaced. This is happening so quickly that I’m sure there’s been no serious consideration given to humanitarian needs, and displacement camps are predominantly located in northern Syria, in territory controlled by the groups that many of these people are fleeing.

That 370,000 figure may not include the tens of thousands of predominantly Alawites who have fled Homs over the past day or so, according to the SOHR. Their flight highlights perhaps the biggest concern as HTS expands the territory under its control—namely, how this jihadist group, which has shed its ties to al-Qaeda but not necessarily its ideology or its intolerance for minority groups, aims to treat its new subjects. HTS appears to be going to some lengths to present an image of liberality and good governance in Aleppo as a demonstration of what it would do in the rest of the country, but that could well prove fleeting. As The Washington Post reported on Friday, Christians in Aleppo seem pleased with their treatment so far but are concerned that there may be another shoe that will drop once things quiet down. Much less has been reported about HTS’s intentions toward other groups, but the evacuation of Homs’ Alawite population suggests that community is deeply concerned.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 weeks ago

the main question surrounding this offensive will shift (if it hasn’t already) from “how much longer can the insurgents keep this up?” to “when is Assad going to leave the country?”

Yeah on the episode he was still thinking in terms of the first question, with the assumption they would need to regroup and plan their logistics before they could continue. Bad sign.