this post was submitted on 09 Nov 2024
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electoralism

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The top reasons voters gave for not supporting Harris were that inflation was too high (+24), too many immigrants crossed the border (+23), and that Harris was too focused on cultural issues rather than helping the middle class (+17).

Other high-testing reasons were that the debt rose too much under the Biden-Harris Administration (+13), and that Harris would be too similar to Joe Biden (+12).

These concerns were similar across all demographic groups, including among Black and Latino voters, who both selected inflation as their top problem with Harris. For swing voters who eventually chose Trump, cultural issues ranked slightly higher than inflation (+28 and +23, respectively).

The lowest-ranked concerns were that Harris wasn’t similar enough to Biden (-24), was too conservative (-23), and was too pro-Israel (-22).

We have a lot of work to do. The general public doesn't understand their own economic system and blames everyone except Capitalists for their eggs costing $5 instead of $2.

Also those numbers around "Israel" and Palestine... yikes

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Honestly the more I think about it the more frustrating this poll is, I don’t just think this is unhelpful for these issues in this election, I think this is a stupid methodology for any election that doesn’t have compulsory voting.

By the very nature of polling people who voted you’re inherently selecting for people who agree with at least one of the candidates, more likely the winning one. In a system like the US where elections are won on turnout and not changing votes, that’s completely fucking useless when it comes to figuring out what went wrong and how to win future elections.

You went to what is statistically a Trump rally and were shocked to find that everyone you polled supports Trump.

[–] [email protected] 12 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (2 children)

A poll from a few days before found that 34% of respondents in Pennsylvania would be more likely to vote for Kamala if she vowed to stop giving weapons to Israel. Michigan it would’ve been a bigger shift than that.

That simply does not line up with this Blueprint poll, but of course it doesn’t because those are the people you’re specifically excluding from this poll.

Edit: Sorry I was misreading that and giving them more credit than they deserved. That 34% was among all respondents, if you looked at undecided voters who voted for Biden in 2020 it was 57%. Undecided voters who voted for Biden being the people who lost you this election. And similar numbers play out in every swing state.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Got any links for this? Seems like very useful analysis.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

Here is the poll I’m talking about, and a couple articles talking about the poll 1 2 and then also this one from months ago because we’ve known this since before Kamala took over the campaign and have been screaming it the whole time.

@[email protected]

It’s a somewhat small poll but not that small and big enough to draw some conclusions from, even if it’s twice the margin of error it’s still a huge number.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 6 days ago

Hit me up with a link to that poll so I can have of on hand when you can.