this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2024
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Oh. So the intersections between Russia and Israel are even bigger than I thought.
Frankly IMHO Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Israel are in fact a system (maybe even a de-facto alliance) allowing them to be "in different blocks", but work for the same interest. It's not very well hidden though, Israel wouldn't have fuel, steel and textile without Turkey, Turkey would be the main target of justified hate and freedom fighters on ME without Israel, Azerbaijan would quickly find its forgotten place without Russia, Russia wouldn't entertain its corridors and logistics ambitions without Azerbaijan (and also power projection via its hands but with western military tech), Turkey wouldn't have leverage on western countries without Russia, and Russia would have less power to stir shit up without Turkey.
A bit similar to how Armenia and Georgia are sort of a micro-system, where together they won't be immediately eaten by countries from the previous list. But with them it's clearly visible - if Azeris\Turks\Russians press Armenia down enough, they don't need Georgia, if they press Georgia down enough, they don't need Armenia. Both are very close to happening and would mean the end of both countries, unless somebody intervenes militarily, which is unlikely.
Israel always plays all sides and will happily destroy their "allies" to install leaders which are loyal to them.
It's also the reason why israel never openly sent weapons to Ukraine and withheld from condemning Russia at the UN (there are reports of israel being pressured into secretly sending weapons to Ukraine by the US)
If America starts falling as a superpower israel will gladly switch sides and volunteer as a military base for Russia or China. Backstabbing their allies is a timeless israeli classic.
I don't think they'll drop the relationship with USA ever. They already have the kind of relations with Russia, China, India that any other country would get punished for. They just have too many spies and blackmailed politicians in there. It won't ever be weak enough to stop being valuable.
But I think the moment Israel loses the protection of nuclear superpowers, it's done.