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I'm rather worried that we're inching ever closer to option 1.
We definitely are worryingly close to it. They still haven't really made up their minds. The MAD theory is being tested.
Provided we can avoid nuclear war they will first kick their legs and struggle in an attempt to prevent things happening but when that doesn't work they'll transition into managed decline and acceptance.
Indeed, my expectation that if we don't all die in a nuclear holocaust, then the US will circle the wagons and rule over a diminished empire.
My only hope that we will not see nuclear war is that they coward at heart that would like to live for eternity if possible. But there has been a worrying amount of articles pushing the idea that a nuclear war is winnable. I think that they will try a final sanction war with China at a minimum or try to use they pawns in the pacific to destroy China.