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There's only a handful of people in the world trump could beat in an election...
And he never imagined Biden would actually get out of the way, so he has no idea what to do now that it's not Biden.
I am absolutely convinced that Trump's entire election strategy was to just coast to victory on "Biden old" and "I got shot". By the time of the republican convention he was confident that he had it in the bag and didn't need to keep trying, so when Biden dropped out it completely shattered his plan and he's got nothing to replace it. He does not have the cognitive ability to pivot against Harris/Walz and his ego is way too big to actually listen to his campaign strategists (if he even has any that aren't just yes men).
* this should not be interpreted as complacency. It is definitely not a sure thing that Harris will win
Harris isn't a guaranteed win, but she'd have to royally fuck up to blow this election.
trump just isn't as popular as he used to be. The last two elections there was trump shit all over my red state. I haven't seen a single trump bumpper sticker. Not even old ones from prior elections.
If there's one thing I've learned in my life, though, it's to never underestimate the ability of a Democrat to royally fuck something up.
She's got a long list of stuff to fix that will require both houses of congress. If we give her a majority of non-moderate Dems there's hope. Obama didn't fuck up too bad besides trying to compromise with Rs for "bipartisanship" until they retook the House and Senate at which point they kneecapped him politically. He was too much an idealist imo. She seems wise enough to not fall for that. Maybe I'm giving her too much credit but being media quiet while VP has allowed her to more easily distance from Biden's shittier policies like Israel-Palestine and push for more on climate/women now that she has a campaign lead by herself.
Since I know and support many of her stated policy stances the biggest question for me is how to reform SCOTUS, regulate voting rights (e.g. RCV or France style) and stop media disinformation without infringing on the 1st amendment.
The only reason anybody has ever put out a Trump flag, bumper sticker, worn a red hat is because they want to bait people into a confrontation. It turns out, it's just a way of telling people not to talk to you because you are just looking for a confrontation.
I think this is something that is hard to overstate. Back in 2016, I went out to northern Pennsylvania to see a friend out there, and the amount of Trump shit I saw blew my blue state mind. Then I did another trip down to North Carolina and saw so much.
In 2020, I went out to both of those places again and there was a bunch of 2016 stuff out there, but not as much new stuff.
I haven’t been up to see my friend in a few years now, but driving through parts of North Carolina I don’t see anything, new or old. I think the rank and file are getting sick of him.
And on top of that, I think Democrats are genuinely excited about Harris Walz. Everyone I know in my blue state went from quiet resignation in voting for Biden to energized. Obviously it only matters if you actually vote, but hopefully everyone feels like they have a good reason this time to vote for someone instead of just against someone. It’s not enough to just win the presidency, we need to run up the numbers and take congress.
That shit is still everywhere where I am. Vote as if he's a popular as he ever was, because in some areas he sure seems to be.