this post was submitted on 30 May 2024
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I appreciate your optimism and hope you are proven to be correct.
I hope he sees prison time for this. I haven't been able to think of a way for him to get out of this that doesn't involve a mask off fascist, subverting the rule of law, moment involving numerous people in positions of power, including Trump. Such as, having the military extradite him from prison if he hypothetically took office, or the SC choosing to rule on a case with no constitutional question, or the judge just fine him after his conduct in the trial. Also, that last one doesn't seem plausible to me because the judge knows who Trump is and the judge is unlikely to believe 34 counts are a small lapse in judgement. If someone does figure out a way he could get out of this legally, given what happened with the trial and the convictions, I would probably inclined to believe them if they could show their math, so to speak. I think Trump will of course take any legal means necessary to get out of this, but the fascists aren't going to want to make it even more obvious that the MAGA movement is a fascist movement. Especially not when it only amounts to an inconvenience for Trump if he is hypothetically elected.
Personally I find thinking about these kind of edge cases to be fun. It's unfortunate that this edge case has to do with a possible fascist takeover of our democracy.
https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/no-such-thing-as-white-house-arrest-legal-experts-say-even-a-conviction-in-hush-money-case-will-not-put-trump-behind-bars/
I found this article that explains why he would be fined but not given prison time. I think the legal experts didn't account for the fact that these 34 counts were upgraded to felonies because of their ties to an election conspiracy. These are not typical financial crimes or even typical upgraded financial crimes, so I don't know why the judge would treat them that way. Cohen was sentenced to three years, I think in part, because his offenses had to do with the 2016 presidential election, and these hush money payments, as well. I would be interested to see a case in New York state where someone was convicted of financial crimes that were connected to a conspiracy to influence an election and they did not receive prison time. If such a case has happened before this one.
Also, there need not be a White House arrest because Trump is not president currently. There is no rule that I'm aware of that a person gets to wait for their appeal because they are running for president. Especially since Trump can run his campaign entirely behind bars with internet access.