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There's some evidence to suggest he'll lose significant support: https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/48654-would-donald-trump-conviction-move-his-voters-evidence-from-past-present-bill-clinton-polls
But hard to know for sure.
I'm making a called shot of a drop into the 40's for July's polling.
He wont' drop below 25%, ever. That's his core. They may never support another candidate again.
However, dropping to high 30's low 40's only puts Trump back to par with Biden. Hardly a W, but at lease Biden would be back in the running.
Don't do that. Don't give me hope.
I mean it in a "There are still people who think gamestop is going to be a billion dollar stock" manner.
See: https://lemmy.world/c/gamestopstock
Cult/ Cargo cult level "They will never support another candidate again" is what I mean. They'll write him in. They'll have wild conspiracy theories. Not need to push. It will happen it on its own.
I would guess its around 25-30% of Republican voters. Its the conspiracy theory mind-set cutting backwards against those that seed it. There is no undoing this.
If Donald could please just die and they continue writing in his name for all future votes that would be great. They are the most ignorant and racist people within a party wholly committed to cultivating ignorant and racist voters.
Thats what I'm conjecturing. This is the cohort that thought JFK was going to show up to some event or something a few months ago.
A few months ago? Jesus Christ, I remember that dumb shit from the numerology crew and I had kinda lost track of them for a couple of years. This country would be so much better if they would throw their ballots in the trash. Here's hoping.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-qanon-believers-think-jfk-170839245.html
I don't think you need to worry about them throwing their ballots away as long as we can get through this gate.
Hi there! Looks like you linked to a Lemmy community using a URL instead of its name, which doesn't work well for people on different instances. Try fixing it like this: [email protected]
I suspect some people will mental gymnastics themselves into thinking this isn't a serious crime, and stipulating an abstract 'serious crime' yields more extreme results than we'll see as a result of this verdict.
But a few percentage point swing in a few key states is enough to ensure a Biden victory, so it may be enough.
The fact of the matter is for a lot of white Americans it's either support the republican nominee or those scary minorities will take over. To them, a white criminal is preferable to what they see as guliable saps at best or race traitors at worst.
That's before Facebook and Fox News kicks in though.
They can rewrite people's brains.
The end of the article after discussing the failure of the impeachment of Clinton to actually change polls despite a difference in the hypothetical poll question before it occurred: