Killed by

My post here laid it out: the US needed a pretext to declare force majeure on COMEX silver deliveries; attacking Iran over a weekend (Friday OPEX) provided that cover. The silver physical delivery pressure was screaming for a reset, and a war in the Strait of Hormuz gave them the perfect external shock to suspend contract fulfillment without admitting the dollar is weak or the exchange is insolvent.

And it is still NOT doing well.

Now look at what is happening with oil.

The April 21 options expiration is the key. May 2026 WTI crude futures and options expire on April 21, 2026. The US‑Iran ceasefire is also set to expire on April 21 (OPEX is on the 21st EST, ceasefire is on the 22nd IRST). That is not a coincidence. The US has been trying to tank the futures market by selling contracts into the rollover period; they want to pin prices lower ahead of the May contract expiry. But Iran is letting them do it.

Iran is waiting for the rollover to fuck up the US plan. The US (most likely the treasury itself or other proxies) have placed massive bearish bets. The idea is to drive oil down once the Strait of Hormuz "reopens." But Iran controls the strait; they can flip the switch at any moment. By waiting until after the rollover, Iran forces the US to hold short positions into a delivery period where physical barrels are not available. When Iran then "closes" the strait again (or kinetic warfare escalates when Israel breaks the ceasefire), the short squeeze will be brutal. The US will be forced to buy back contracts at any price, and the paper game unravels.

Iran is posting bullish statements before market hours for a reason (some have been accusing the Iranian government and the IRGC as being at odds with one another, this is not the case). They want to lure the US into selling more cheap contracts, letting the shorts pile up. Every time Iran says "the strait is open" or "negotiations are progressing", the US adds to its short position. Then, when the rollover is locked in, Iran reverses course. That is exactly what happened on April 17: Iran announced the strait was open, oil tumbled 9%, and then the next day Iran "closed" it again after the US continued its blockade. The US got trapped.

Kinetic warfare cannot be shrugged off. The 1970s oil shock took 7 years to recover from; the physical damage to infrastructure, shipping lanes, and refining capacity does not just disappear. Pricing models will start pricing in longer periods of low oil supply, and that is when the real pain begins. Europe/etc have months of supply, but if they know the strait will be closed for 6 months, 12 months, 18 months? Rations will start immediately so they don't run out in ~June and the price of oil be >$200. The strait could go back to 100% fully normal capacity TOMORROW, and we would not avoid this supply shock. It will take (at minimum) MONTHS to "restart" the strait when all is said and done.

• AI is like the 00 crash (Massive overvaluations into massive leverage)
• Oil is like the 70s crash
• PC/PE Stress (Private Credit / Private Equity) is like the 08 crash
• Iran War is like the 2021 crash (ignore it and it'll go away? Right?...)

But AI is much worse than the dotcom crash (>3x the leverage than in 99), this supply shock makes the 70s look like a game (roughly 3x more of a supply disruption), PC/PE makes 08 look like childs' play, and this insane 12 day run during a war makes covid look like a joke.

This is genuinely THE largest bull trap for the markets the world has ever seen. If/when the United States fails to fuck with the futures markets, first the markets, and then the actual economy are going to crumble.

I know of a couple nice tasting dishes but they both involve deep frying it. I know about pressing on it to remove moisture, and coating it with corn starch to deep fry.

What are your favorite recipes and techniques that have made your dishes taste great? Looking for some magical secret that will make anything taste as awesome as deep frying shit.

It was a Bluesky post that I edited so the text would be at the bottom because it's funnier.

https://bsky.app/profile/moranstephen1000.bsky.social/post/3mjr7xwuwvk2j

not much to tell beyond the picture. Some of them are hand cranked, others include e-motors with throttle either because there's legal modes for it or maybe you're at a bikepark where usual public regs against that don't apply.

Mostly niche-builds, so custom things adapted to specific customers or small scale lines

Hey comrades I don’t really know how to start this. I’m writing this scared and tired, just trying to explain what’s been happening to us. We are a small group of trans and queer sisters living in Juba, South Sudan. Before all this, three of my sisters Charity, Pretty and Model ...were actually preparing for their flight to Canada after 6 years of moving through refugee camps under UNHCR protection. We had finally reached a point where things were starting to feel hopeful. Last Friday, while we were coming back from an IOM appointment, six of us were taken by an unknown group of people wearing black masks. They forced us into a car with tinted windows and brought us somewhere we still don’t recognize. It’s now been about a week. We are being kept in a small, cold room with almost no light. We sleep on the floor, there are mosquitoes everywhere and it’s been really hard to rest. They give us only one proper meal a day, one bottle of water and a small packet of biscuits for all six of us to share. We are weak, exhausted and honestly really scared. At times some of us just sit quietly because we don’t even know what to say anymore. They told us to call our families and ask for money or we would “disappear.” But we don’t have family here we can turn to. When we tried to explain that we are under UNHCR protection, they warned us not to contact UNHCR or the police. They allowed me to use my phone briefly just to ask for help. They are demanding $1,800 for our release. I don’t even know how to ask this properly, but if anyone can help, share or keep this visible, it could mean everything to us right now. We are just trying to get out of here and be safe

Support link is in my profile.

https://xcancel.com/i/status/2045174019415064943

Linku https://x.com/Nhim_Art/status/2045161702359245276

Waifishness.

We need for Waifs. I want to see more people fey like frolicking in the meadows.

Foppish would also be a good one.

I love her she has great foraging content but this just felt perfect for here.

Like don't get me wrong, I don't mind them. They mostly keep to themselves, and they even take care of bugs for me which I appreciate, but they've kinda been getting on my nerves with some of this stuff.

Here are the rules, they didn't seem outlandish to me, but we've been having lots of run-ins lately:

• Stay away from my food! (no issues so far tbh)
• Clean up after yourself! They're pretty good about it, but twice now in two days they've blocked the front door and it's just a mess to deal with.
• Stay out of my personal space! Like no, we don't need to share a couch, stay in the corner lol. I feel like they literally choose to sit close enough to give me anxiety.
• No sex! They definitely don't use protection or anything and I really don't want to have to deal with a million little ones running around down the line. They can do that activity elsewhere.
• Announce yourself if I knock on the bathroom door! I keep freaking walking in them when the lights are off and I get no response, but then they're just in there when I walk in like I wouldn't notice?? I don't get this one.
• No running in the house! They act like I scare them when I come into the room in MY OWN HOUSE! Drives me nuts. Just stay put lmao
• No drama! This is zero tolerance for me. If you look aggressive or like you're gonna come at me for any reason, you're getting evicted. End of story.

So what do you guys think? Am I being unreasonable? I want to help them out but idk sometimes.

These gals are pretty cool.

For context, Imam Husayn/Hussein has big significance as a martyr for Shia Muslims, who annually commemorate his death during the first month of the Islamic calendar. A custom is to raise a red flag with text commemorating him, usually simply saying "O Husayn/Hussein".

If any Westerners know of it, it's likely only from the one flown by the Jamkaran Mosque in Iran, which got dubbed the "flag of revenge" by Western press because aside from the annual religious use, it was used to announce revenge for American or Israeli attacks on its land or leaders.