[–] 4 points 2 weeks ago* (1 child)

So here’s the thing, AI labs got billions of dollars to spend on making this “rogue” accident happen. They can buy a lab, kit it out, do some random sequence mixing with already deadly viruses, have natural selection do the heavy lifting, and then claim that they were trying to cure cancer, but their AI is so good it made a supervirus. (Of course, the supervirus is unlikely to be all that good, but it doesn’t have to be, they’ll just hype up what could have happened).

That is basically what they did for hacking, and they didn’t get in any kind of trouble, so they will be escalating and escalating. Keep in mind these folks have always been about applying “fake it until you make it” attitude to the end of the world. They had been promising their investors a double digit % chance of ending the world, from the very beginning of these companies.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 weeks ago*

    Started on it and realized that I did in fact read it a long time ago. TBH it's really weird to reference cyberpunk as somehow relating to real tech. It's in that particular niche where it is neither an attempt to predict the future nor is whimsical enough to just be free to describe some extremely specific nonsense that may coincide with something created many decades later. Nothing wrong with that, of course.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 weeks ago

    I'm saying that it seems to me you are retconning to make LLMs fit a story that was never meant to be about LLMs at all. Also, the idea of a "swarm intelligence" or a "hive mind" is much older than 1970s.

    If you do reinforcement learning, then the reinforcement learning pipeline converts lucky choices of tokens into learned behavior by raising the probabilities that LLM computes for those tokens, whenever the result is "successful". A sort of evolution, leads to some weird shit, "goal driven" only in a metaphorical sense, much like evolution.

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  • [–] 8 points 2 weeks ago* (11 children)

    I'm not terribly familiar with that story but from reading a synopsis it strikes me as ret-conning LLMs onto something that was written without the writer ever having in his mind anything even remotely resembling a "large language model".

    And the same cultural tropes that influenced the writer also influenced how LLM vendors are trying to sell the need for more tokens, especially because datacenters build out exceeds by far the actual demand for generated text of all kinds (as evident in e.g. your typical workplace where there's suddenly a lot more than 2x of every kind of text). The reason for LLM "swarms" is that they need to sell companies generation of vastly more text than humans wrote within a company before AI.

    There's a Stanislaw Lem's short story where Trurl and Klapaucius defeat a space pirate. You can read it here: https://github.com/ilonajulczuk/laughing-archer/blob/master/library/Science%20Fiction/The%20Cyberiad-Stanislaw%20Lem.txt (search for "the sixth sally") and there's a brief summary: https://everything2.com/title/Demon+of+the+Second+Kind

    Lem describes an LLM down to the use of randomness, although his LLM is essentially "perfect" and only outputs factual statements, such as "how Kipling would have written the beginning to his Second Jungle Book if he had had indigestion just then".

    I think Lem's story would help to recalibrate with regards to what "LLM described in fiction ahead of time" actually looks like.

    Also, LLMs do not pursue any sort of long term goals; things like HuggingFace hack only superficially resemble it because they're presented as such. Of course, tampering with something like HuggingFace would be discovered; if they didn't have good monitoring then all of their containers run with GPU access would be mining crypto already. They're pretty much a honeypot - almost no protections but robust monitoring. An LLM can easily explain to you why hacking HuggingFace would be counterproductive; but the same LLM with its context full of hacking related tokens from the ExploitGym benchmark, will treat anything that comes up as another ExploitGym type target.

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  • [–] 24 points 2 weeks ago (13 children)

    Even by "AI" standards, LLMs are extra dead: fixed weights, tiny "feedback" solely through appending next tokens, etc. Somewhere between bang-bang thermostat and a PID controller, maybe?

    They took all of the scifi that related to far more potentially-alive constructions and they're applying them to a static chatbot which is as dead as a database.

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  • [–] 9 points 2 weeks ago

    I've long been feeling like I'm living in some bad TV prequel's prequel series that provide unnecessary backstory of why it is not named a "Butlerian crusade".

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  • [–] 12 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

    I'm kind of dubious that a large volume of DDR3 would be intrinsically cheaper per GB than a large volume of DDR5 . It was more expensive per GB when it was new, uses more silicon area per GB, and so on. It is cheaper now thanks to obsolescence, but it wouldn't be cheaper if everyone was using it.

    In a normal market (i.e. pre AI shortage), due to growth in memory capacities over time, the total consumer installed gigabytes of DDR5 would very quickly exceed the total gigabytes of DDR3 and earlier technologies, because DDR5 has greater capacity per chip.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 weeks ago

    Skippy: Opening frequently asked questions item "Why can't I kill more than fifty people?" Answer: "The fuck is wrong with? Go see a therapist, psycho. (note to self - rewrite later, do not forget)."

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 3 weeks ago

    I’m specifically interested in “neural networks” and transformer architecture and limitations of what it can and can’t learn, though. Specifically, if blinded to some number pairs, can it learn to multiply numbers it hasn’t seen?

    Or with all number pairs but some pairs being more common than others.

    The curious thing about learning, is that what can be learned in practice is only a minuscule fraction of what you could get if you could just guess the right weights somehow.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 3 weeks ago (2 children)

    Hmm, I guess they could have written a lot of code lines, but its not like the code they write would be equivalent to million LOC of a coherent whole.

    You can also do a lot with contractor code for RLVR, like have contractors make extremely comprehensive regression tests (simulate user clicking etc etc, compare screenshots) and then you can do a lot of training on replicating pieces of the app.

    My understanding is that LRVR for mysterious reasons results in somewhat better generalization, probably because the training samples are always tailored to the model they are applied to.

    I do actually have a decent GPU i bought 4 years ago in my PC, so maybe I'll do a few simple experiments again... my preferred approach is to pick a simple but nonlinear problem e.g. binary multiplication of two large numbers, where you e.g. skew the training sample distribution or omit some number pairs and see if the resulting model can learn correct multiplication anyway.

    If a reasonably small model doesn't generalize multiply beyond seen numbers, then of course a large model isn't gonna do the whole "soulstealing" thing that the techbros hope would allow jobstealing. And if it only generalizes beyond seen numbers if using RLVR, that bodes well for making various tools that could perhaps actually generate some value, which is very different from antiemployment shit techbros originally embarked on doing.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago*

    Regarding it being a compiler, I can get behind that: no compiler artifacts in the repo, lol. edit: in fact I'm pretty sure if they were putting compiler-generated assembly into the repository, which is awful and you shouldn't do that, they would keep information what compiler shat them out.

    I can see in some 5..10 years, deterministic coding tool that either converts specification to code or asks for clarification and then edits said specification to disambiguate. One way flow, generated artifacts kept out of the repos. That's not gonna even begin to happen until the bubble pops though.

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  • [–] [S] 1 point 3 weeks ago* (4 children)

    I wonder how much code they could have gotten contractors to write in a year or two, though. Got to be only a fraction of total open source code lines. Also, open source comes with existing tests that could be used for some validation.

    If you actually exclude some project from the bulk pretraining data (or just use code that is after training cutoff) you could e.g. have it replace a function but still pass the test.

    They might also be somehow using all of their customer's usage as training data, which would explain why now there's also a hard disk shortage.

    I'm thinking RLVR and such got to be the largest, then open source, then RLHF and commissioned training data.

    They also did a lot of training for decompilation, which makes me think they train on decompiled closed source as well. They definitely "anonymize" variable names etc etc to avoid getting nabbed for plagiarism, so de-compiled closed source may not be that much worse than "laundered" open source.

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  •  

    So, I was thinking about how modern LLMs got better at coding in the last 1 year, despite not having much good new training data.

    The way it was done is largely via reinforcement learning with verifiable reward (and a little bit with human feedback).

    Basically, you use an LLM to make slop, random token choice and everything, monkeys on typewriters style, and then if slop passes a test, you use said slop as the training data. You use the compiler, unit and integration tests, any static analysis tools, etc etc as verification.

    For natural language, attempts to do anything like this work miserably, the whole slop centipede, model collapse, all that. But for coding this turned to be unexpectedly effective.

    So that raises the question: can an LLM coding assistant be developed like a normal corporate project, with no YOLO exemptions from software legal compliance, without any special treatment like it's a favorite child that grows up to be a techbro? Like normal fucking software?

    I think, the answer is probably a yes on the purely technical level but still a hard no commercially.

    On the technical level, an LLM could be pre-trained on compatibly licensed open source projects, RLVR'd in a license-compliant way.

    The end result isn't going to be good for plagiarism, though, and won't use plagiarism to cover every gap in capabilities. I think it's pretty obvious all the folks who are trying to clone Adobe or whatever would reject such a product.

    Meanwhile the one "strength" of LLMs is this intuitive argument that if you have a good enough predictor of what your workers do, then you don't need workers. That is the whole reason the "AI companies" are rolling in investor money and are able to operate at such large loss.

    The other thing is that having done copyright infringement, OpenAI/Anthropic/etc etc have to portray it as necessary, and alternative as impossible.

    Anyhow basically my thought on this is that I'll continue not using any LLM coding tools in my personal projects until some acceptable tooling appears and proves itself actually useful.

    edit: For a concrete example if someone makes a tool that can take the compiled assembly, run it through non-LLM translation to some much abridged Lean and prove that nothing depends on exact timing of threads (no race conditions) or identify race conditions, or complain it could do neither, would I use it? If the carbon footprint is not insanely greater than what I would do instead (which is either a: run stress tests overnight, or b: ship buggy software that users have to restart, which also has a large energy footprint), sure.

     

    As I was using LLMs at work (I never use LLMs for personal projects), a question occurred to me:

    What in the fuck are these new data centers supposed to actually do?

    The enterprise users are all in on having LLMs write 300% of the code. And yet, both OpenAI and Anthropic are still giving these "$200 gets you $10 000 in API costs" subscriptions to every victim of AI psychosis.

    Why do we have RAM, hard disk, SSD, GPU and CPU shortages and no "token shortage"?

    I mean, we all know the answer, these are the offerings for the robot god, but like how in the fuck are they still obtaining loans for this shit?

     

    Took a peek at what our good friends the rationalists are talking about. That's gonna teach me not to gaze into the abyss.

    Apparently some AI related bigshot CEO is telling Stuart Russell that our best hope for survival is an "AI Chernobyl" which would royally piss everyone off even more.

    Our "leaders" are quaking in their boots and hoping a bunch of us would die so we the people take the reins and lead them somehow out of a peril of their own construction. That's whole another level of completely fucked up.

    You all know I'm the last person to expect this shit to get 3 vegetables across the river without going back, and yet the latest evolution of their bullshit is making me feel rather doomer-y.

    Reading between the lines, Chornobyl = chain reaction = forkbomb = agents hacking their own company to launch more agents with the same prompt. Do I think this is possible? Sure as shit I think its possible. their cybersecurity is terrible. And LLMs did turn out great at finding exploits: humans screw up in stereotypical ways and there's a gazillion "fixed blah blah" git commits to train on.

    Okay, so we got a tremendous cluster fuck. Ideally all that happens is another "human coding appreciation day", whatever.

    Except as can be told from their recent hacking leaks, what happens when a clusterfuck like this runs, with the context full of hacking, it would keep trying to hack whatever, until stopped. Hopefully, "whatever" is other AI companies, but it's not like they can't train or fine tune to diversify the whatever.

    Other bit that is very disturbing to me is that they are talking about a billion deaths scenario, instead of talking about outright extinction. Why the sudden modesty?

    My cynical take is at the core their concerns are still insincere, but this time they actually think something serious might happen, not just having fun with fantasies of infinite importance. And so they are inventing new scenarios that would make that serious thing seem like we got off lightly, or perhaps turn it into a regulatory capture opportunity.

    Which is just an escalation, or perhaps de-escalation, of their old game of talking over any realistic concerns with "existential risk".

     

    There's a very long history of extremely effective labor saving tools in software.

    Writing in C rather than Assembly, especially for more than 1 platform.

    Standard libraries. Unix itself. More recently, developing games in Unity or Unreal instead of rolling your own engine.

    And what happened when any of these tools come on the scene is that there is a mad gold rush to develop products that weren't feasible before. Not layoffs, not "we don't need to hire junior developers any more".

    Rank and file vibe coders seem to perceive Claude Code (for some reason, mostly just Claude Code) as something akin to the advantage of using C rather than Assembly. They are legit excited to code new things they couldn't code before.

    Boiling the rivers to give them an occasional morale boost with "You are absolutely right!" is completely fucked up and I dread the day I'll have to deal with AI-contaminated codebases, but apart from that, they have something positive going for them, at least in this brief moment. They seem to be sincerely enthusiastic. I almost don't want to shit on their parade.

    The AI enthusiast bigwigs on the other hand, are firing people, closing projects, talking about not hiring juniors any more, and got the media to report on it as AI layoffs. They just gleefully go on about how being 30% more productive means they can fire a bunch of people.

    The standard answer is that they hate having employees. But they always hated having employees. And there were always labor saving technologies.

    So I have a thesis here, or a synthesis perhaps.

    The bigwigs who tout AI (while acknowledging that it needs humans for now) don't see AI as ultimately useful, in the way in which C compiler was useful. Even if its useful in some context, they still don't. They don't believe it can be useful. They see it as more powerfully useless. Each new version is meant to be a bit more like AM or (clearly AM-inspired, but more familiar) GLaDOS, that will get rid of all the employees once and for all.

     

    They train on sneer-problems now:

    Here’s the “ferry‑shuttle” strategy, exactly analogous to the classic two‑ferryman/many‑boats puzzle, but with planes and pilots

    And lo and behold, singularity - it can solve variants that no human can solve:

    https://chatgpt.com/share/68813f81-1e6c-8004-ab95-5bafc531a969

    Two ferrymen and three boats are on the left bank of a river. Each boat holds exactly one man. How can they get both men and all three boats to the right bank?

     

    I think this summarizes in one conversation what is so fucking irritating about this thing: I am supposed to believe that it wrote that code.

    No siree, no RAG, no trickery with training a model to transform the code while maintaining identical expression graph, it just goes from word-salading all over the place on a natural language task, to outputting 100 lines of coherent code.

    Although that does suggest a new dunk on computer touchers, of the AI enthusiast kind, you can point at that and say that coding clearly does not require any logical reasoning.

    (Also, as usual with AI it is not always that good. sometimes it fucks up the code, too).

     

    Tried my duck river crossing thing a few times recently, it usually solves it now, albeit with a bias to make unnecessary trips half of the time.

    Of course, anything new fails:

    There's 2 people and 1 boat on the left side of the river, and 3 boats on the right side of the river. Each boat can accommodate up to 6 people. How do they get all the boats to the left side of the river?

    Did they seriously change something just to deal with my duck puzzle? How odd.

    It's Google so it is not out of the question that they might do some analysis on the share links and referring pages, or even use their search engine to find discussions of a problem they're asked. I need to test that theory and simultaneously feed some garbage to their plagiarism machine...

    Sample of the new botshit:

    L->R: 2P take B_L. L{}, R{2P, 4B}. R->L: P1 takes B_R1. L{P1, B_R1}, R{P2, 3B}. R->L: P2 takes B_R2. L{2P, B_R1, B_R2}, R{2B}. L->R: P1 takes B_R1 back. L{P2, B_R2}, R{P1, 3B}. R->L: P1 takes B_R3. L{P1, P2, B_R2, B_R3}, R{2B}. L->R: P2 takes B_R2 back. L{P1, B_R3}, R{P2, 3B}.

    And again and again, like a buggy attempt at brute forcing the problem.

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