NATOs resolve? Putin had better hope we can all hold Poland back from finally acting on what has been the burning national desire to turn Russians into a fine pink mist.
We won't hold Poland back. We'll be right there, shoulder by shoulder!
Kyiv Post tends to be a little less bombastic with their reporting:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/79532
They word it differently, saying the US warned that Russia was "considering" an attack. This is probably true, and has probably been true every year for the past several decades. Simply because a nation's military planners "consider" pretty much everything they can think of.
Thanks. Updated the post to include Kyiv's perspective.
Now i'm no military expert but even I know out of all the possible ideas Russia could have, this is the worst.
Poland is quite literally chomping at the bit for the ruskies to try something. They've been prepping for it for god knows how long now. The Polish Military would absolutely kick the russians teeth in on their own without the need of NATO if it called for it.
russians are stupid but this is just posturing. empty threats. For the decades of russian lying they've never been able to get good at it. like someone who has been playing the piano for years but still can't play twinkle, twinkle, little star...at some point you just need to tell them "stop, you're not good at it, and you never will be."
I genuinely thought about 3 years ago that Poland was going to join the war, with or without consent of Nato on the side of Ukraine. From their pov, they won’t get an opportunity to hurt Russia as much as it would now in the next 50 years at least. If this was a game and no actual lives were at stake, or if Russia had no nukes, they would have pulled that trigger already.
That being said, if sufficiently provoked, I don’t expect them to sit idly by. From a geostrategic pov it might actually be necessary for them to secure their eastern flank, given that Germany is rearming and afd is very friendly to the Kremlin.
Considering how badly they seem to be doing in Ukraine, this seems like a fairly large tactical error.
Putin needs to mobilize the Russian populace to make any progress in Ukraine, but doing so would make the urban centers of Moscow and St. Petersburg revolt. He needs a damn good reason. If he doesn't mobilize, Moscow and St. Petersburg are going to revolt, and he's going to end his days hanging from a lamppost.
We can but hope
a lamppost
There's also the Gaddafi option.
Then EU members should leak that they're considering taking Kaliningrad.
"US Warns" is like, "ChatGPT said".
It might be true. But it has no credibility and might be full of shit.
They had been right since Ukraine though. Nobody, except Ukraine of course, before the invasion believed the US warning because 1) invading a country that historically hates you and expecting no resistance is stupid. That's like Britain invading Ireland again. 2) the US lied about Iraq before. I hate to say this as someone who loathe US for invading Iraq under falsified intelligence report, but this time the US intelligence is telling the truth. Broken clock is right twice a day and all that while also the US is the boy who cried wolf.
This news is the usual border movement and sabre rattling from Kremlin to compensate from the fact that they are proven to be paper tiger. All bark and no bite. It's like Kevin Hart wanting to fight Andre the Giant because Kevin feels so insecure.
"Why would NATO do this?"
Oh that's interesting. And plausible.
This mildly concerns me because I've had a paranoid thought that the orange turd has been planning to announce the official US withdrawal from NATO on July 4th.
Not to say Poland and the other NATO allies couldn't handle a deeply weakened Russian military but no idea what downstream effects this may have
Oh shit... I never thought about that.
It's the same shit Germany pulled before WW2. If we'd have had a different president we'd have been aligned with Germany.
Either way we were going to wait and watch and jump in with the winners.
Shouldn't trust the word of Russian sympathizers but it wouldn't hurt to be on guard just in case.
Poland will mop up the floor with what's left of his troops. He'd be fucking stupid to even try. Makes me wonder if he's spreading this rumor via his puppets for some other reason-- and it most definitely has something to do with Ukraine.
Failing in Ukraine... so Russia will now also provoke a heavily armed NATO country, and neighbour to Ukraine: Poland.
No. Serious doubt this is real.
Doubt it. Even Putin knows not to check for electricity by pissing on the fuse box.
"The US government says" a lot of crazy shit. Russia doesnt have the oil or cash reserves, or troops or hardware to initiate an attack on NATO. I imagine its the US spreading fear for its own advantage before the NATO meeting.
Sure, create a new front when you're getting the shit kicked out of you at the current front. At least you've got plenty of air defense to defend you from two attackers instead of one. Oh wait... You don't even have the air defenses to stay safe from Ukraine.
I'd also imagine they're almost out of drug addicted convicts to send to the front lines as well
From the article this seems less like opening a full-on front in conception and more like a teehee wow our drone seems to have gotten turned around and flew into a substation sort of provocation. An unambiguous invasion will activate more or less everyone but relatively piddly incursions don’t typically excite as much of the population because many away from the area tend to see the cost of war as worse than the cost of tolerating those incursions. So ironically a well-calibrated attack in this gray zone kind of way that falls just short of the line can actually divide people in the victim country rather than unite them, and if a particular sort of incursion is tolerated once then it’s not a far step for Russia to keep spamming that out and take advantage of the additional flexibility. I think that the former is more of the goal because there is a burgeoning division in Polish society on aiding Ukraine or not that Russia is trying to make as wide as possible, things get much more dire for Ukraine if Polish help is cut.
Every once in a while Russia does screw up with where the line is (ex. when Turkey blew up a jet they were flying over Turkish territory) but even in that case where they did get a vigorous response they kind of won anyway because it drove a big wedge between Turkey and the rest of NATO. Then isolated and threatened-feeling Turkey sought to improve relations with Moscow and among other things actually started officially allowing Russian jets to fly over their territory to Syria, up until the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
I just want to tell you I always love reading your comments. They're always thoughtful and interesting. I know you with the tag "Knows Chinese history" and when I see this tag, China-related or not, I know it will be good.
Aw thanks, that’s kind of you to say. =) I am still relatively new to Lemmy and didn’t even know it was possible to make custom tags for users so I’d also like to say thanks for broadcasting out neat info!
I don't think it's part of Lemmy per se, rather it's an app feature. I use Voyager.
It's like undersea cable-cutting, paying dumbshits to sabotage infrastructure, novichok, interfering in politics, and sabre-rattling in general. It raises tensions, but they lie about their involvement.
Not again this warmongering crap...these days Russia is supposedly attacking western countries left and right.
Several choices:
Which one it is, no idea
Or US trying to sell some equipment faster.
I'm not sure what to think about it - a risk certainly exists, but I can't put a probability on it currently.
I live in one of the countries which has been warned about a provocation - Estonia. Over here, we've been preparing for this at some kind of a pace (IMHO too slow) for quite some years. An admission must be made: both Ukraine and Russia are way ahead in mass production and use of drones. They both punch above their weight with drones (and both have considerable weight too) and have considerably more antidrone defense set up than neighbouring countries.
Russia manufactures an awful lots of drones per day. But as long as Ukraine fights it with an equally awful lot, Russia simply lacks resources for a big provocation, since Ukraine is tying down all their resources.
Russia has fuel shortages, manpower shortages, armor and artillery shortages, no surplus of drones either (they fly to Ukraine within days of leaving a factory). There could be a stockpile of 100 or 200 Iskander short range ballistic missiles, less of other types. On the background, of course, the Soviet-built strategic missile forces exist untouched. But they're not capable of being used with conventional warheads, since their precision is too low.
Meanwhile, Putin's popularity is finally dropping. Parliamentary elections are approaching. It's fairly obviouls that special services must be considering "creative" ways of taking back initiative. But I can't clearly see what they would hope to achieve with this kind of activity.
Hypothetic perspective from Russia: "let's f*ck around and see if NATO has resolve"
I don't see a winning option.
I believe the idea is that they fuck around in Poland, NATO responds meekly, and Poland therefore blocks Ukraine aid to not risk further attacks from Russia if NATO doesn't have their back.
But it sounds like a very stupid plan, agreed.
seems like lockheed martin wants to sell more weapons
I think they are more working with bots and trolls to raise anti-Ukrainian sentimente in Poland. Thry are succesful at that
russia desperately needs to be conquered so it can get aid.
Fuck off Putin!
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