We could really use a covid-style lockdown for a few years.
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I expect climate change to be consistently worse than the mainstream predictions.
There's a huge political incentive to err on the side of downplaying than to exaggerate, and those models should have been bad enough to make the point.
About a decade ago a group did a study on it.
They first created a simplified model. That model was still a fairly good match with the fully featured models. They then varied the parameters around reasonable possible values. If scientists were using most likely assumptions, you would expect a 50/50 split of better/worse predictions.
In practice it was 93% worse. Scientists were (unconsciously) using a lot of best case figures, not expected case.
When I read about that, and the complete lack of follow-up coverage, I knew we were fucked.
Which I don't blame the original scientists or studies for. Their predictions were bad enough that we should have done something then. It's been clear for at least 30 years.
They did what they thought would have the most traction and not get them dismissed as crackpots. And, to be clear, they were still within a margin of error. They weren't generally wrong, considering their margins. It's just that they're not going to be perfect and they made the better choice.
Even now it would be easier to dismiss climate change if the reality ended up better than predicted, even if it was still bad.
I am convinced all the climate change predictions were WAY too generous and reality is gonna be far worse.
They were
Scientists always were afraid to be too alarmist and be ignored, so they always went conservative with their estimates.
Now we are here
The cynic in me imagines that the media purposely promoted the longer timelines to lull people into thinking we had more time, and so there was no rush.
I think it's more about scientists being extremely conservative with their estimates, because they know they'll get impaled over being 'alarmist.'
And then (effectively) fired from their job.
Also, you should check out conservative coverage. There is no timeline compression, its strait up cynicism, hostile denial.
EDIT: I forgot hand wringing. A perfect example: fairly scientific family showed me a WSJ article about how future geoengineering is going to make climate change a non-issue.
"Offended" did not begin to describe my reaction.
I've been reading geoengineering research papers for years, and they amount to things like:
Well, if we redirected a significant portion of the global economy to custom airplane and chemical production, we could rain sulfuric acid over the poles and wipe out all life beyond a certain latitude, and maybe counter the warming some if we keep it up... ecological implications aside, its still rather impractical, but an order of magnitude cheaper than previous proposals. Shows table.
This is one of the reasons my spouse and I opted to not have kids. This place is doomed.
Dude I feel so incredibly guilty for bringing my kids into this horror. You're doing the right thing.
Chat are we cooked??
Chat we're not just cooked we are battered and deep fried.
”salivates in southern US”
Doesn't matter what your intentions are.
Doesn't matter what earnings you posted this quarter.
Doesn't matter if you believe in climate change.
Doesn't matter if you need this truck.
You're on this rock of wind and water and it'll do what it needs, to get back to it's equilibrium. That might be at a level we don't exist anymore nature is emotionless and you can't control it.
Nobody cares anymore now that datacenters and AI exist.
Corporations have never cared, it’s always deflection and distraction.
Example: the myth of recycling
We're sitting in our rooms agitated, causing life long issue with sleepless nights, all while these fuckers that did this for greed sake are building climate controlled bunkers.
Fuck rich removed
see you next Tuesday is sencered? What else can we call them...
There's been a 73% decline in global vertebrate populations since 1970. We're in the beginning of a very serious mass extinction and it's kinda like we don't care which is interesting.
Well that's because we are the mass extinction event.
As a Person Living In France, I can confirm it feels like someone put an oven in every room. Even places with A/C mostly can't keep up with the heat. The only safe space is the car with working A/C.
We are rapidly reaching temperatures where life becomes impossible, and we'll need to be indoors from May to October. And we are just getting started.
That's 43 celsius? Holy shit, good luck to the french, it will soon be everyone.
Yeah just don't fall into the old mistake of weather = climate. Heat waves happened before climate change as well. But our current changing climate makes them more likely to happen more often and more intense, if I am informed correctly.
It's not high summer, and 40C is crazy. This is climate chang. Saying it's weather is oil propaganda.
Look up how many heatwaves happened in France during the 20th century, and how many happened in the last 10 years. Yes, weather on any single day is not climate, but we are quite past "oh heatwaves happened before".
Not just heat waves, average has also increased - https://showyourstripes.info/s/europe/france/all
And people continue to deny that global warming is real...
No, that was plan A.
Plan A: tell people there's no climate change
Plan B: tell people climate change is natural, not man made
Plan C: tell people climate change is man made but there's nothing we can do about it
We're at plan C now.
A lot will admit it’s real but then shift blame to China while overlooking the facts that chinas pollution is largely made by western countries outsourcing the dirtiest parts of their supply chain to China and that China is vastly outperforming and outspending literally every country in considerably bringing down their emissions
Some have stopped denying the warming. But they've moved on to "humans can't cause enough pollution to affect the entire earth" and "It's god's will to bring the end times" fml
Truly wild.
I'm in the northern us and traveled to Austin, TX for work recently.
I departed at 72 degrees and raining and landed in 98 degrees with a 78 dew point. It was a heat index of 116.
I understand exactly why the world is burning, watching all the people scurry from AC to AC in a state which derives most of it's power from fossil juice. And then of course, everyone is driving a monster vehicle and coal rolling pedestrians and e scooter renters.
We're so fucked.
This is not supposed to be personal, but an additional point is how it is completely natural to us as a society to fly somewhere. Even if it's for work.
You can argue with scientists all that you want to, they're not infallible, it's true.
But you were warned for many decades, don't act all shocked and surprised.
This depresses me so badly. I don’t think we can fully grasp right now just how bad the next few decades are going to get
I've accepted that we won't survive the coming storm. Covid showed us that people couldn't be bothered tonwear a mask or get a shot to fight off a disease that was visibly killing millions. If we can't come together on that, there's no way we'll come together to survive the climate crisis.
Climate change deniers: "I'll be dead by 2050, why do I care?" or "Fuck you, I got mine already."
Reality: FAFO.
You know what would help this situation?
AI
Lots and lots of AI.
Also more religion.
But car goes WROOM WROOM!
The fictional one has something along the lines of "as usual" while in reality it's exceptional (for now). Though europe is especially affected by climate change, due to some meteorological phenomenas. And it's concerning that we get a few more over-30°C days each year.
Edit: language. hard.

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