this post was submitted on 27 Apr 2025
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From what I'm reading, the troubles should start to pick up now; harbors being quieter, truckers not having work, ... Are any shortages noticeable yet?

ETA:

Source: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trump-is-a-virus

Businesses have been filling their inventories. That's ending now. Economic pain in terms of job losses should accelerate now. It will still take up to a few weeks before inventories run empty, and the full impact hits consumers. Even a full reversal of Trumpism couldn't prevent knock-on effects that last into next year.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 hours ago

Curling up into the fetal position and crying in between protests.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

Cargo container bookings are down 60%. 60%! Thats an incredible drop, and it really hasn't even started yet.

I'm ready for a "Hot Tariff Summer."

I've been on a no-purchase kick for a while now, even before HitlerPig was elected. We have become such a culture of consumerism that it had started to disgust me. I've embraced the "re-use, repair, re-sell, recycle" philosophy. If i need something, i try to buy it used.

I'm a guitarist, so I buy used guitars when i get a good deal, clean them up, fix them, and re-sell them at a small profit. It puts a beautiful instrument back into service, allows a poor or new musician an opportunity to have an inexpensive but quality instrument, and its music makes the world a slightly more beautiful place.

I even went on a much-needed diet (down 80 pounds so far, and still going), and decreasing my consumption, and spending less money with evil corporations, is a primary motivation.

So let the shelves be empty of cheap Chinese-made consumer goods, i don't need them, despite how much advertising and marketing tells me i do.

The silver lining is that if tariffs become a longterm thing, people will be forced to come around to my way of thinking, and when the tariffs finally end, corporations may be surprised to find that nobody needs their shiny crap any more.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

clean them up, fix them,

As someone else that does "clean up" and "fix them" for other non-instrument items, are you concerned about your supply/cost of replacement parts and supplies? Most of mine come from China.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (1 children)

Somewhat, mostly strings. Most of the rest is just adjustments, using tools I already have. I still have a fair stock of strings, but I was thinking of buying a bunch more to hold me over for a while.

Cleaning is also a big part, but that's easy.

I suppose if it gets bad, and I need to buy tuners and bridges, etc., I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 hours ago

I can buy a few junk guitars, and cannibalize them for parts.

This is a future I see on my side too. The price will likely go up for our services to support this for a supply of parts though. If we get to that point, you won't be the only one buying up junk guitars as others will be buying them for the same reason. So the price of junk guitars is going to go up too.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 7 hours ago (2 children)

OP’s data shows the U.S. is stocking up tremendously in April, and then maintaining year-on-year patterns after that with a slight downturn that doesn’t even compensate for April’s glut.

I haven’t seen this data before but it shows the opposite of the shortage I was expecting.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago

May still be a few weeks more before it's critical then.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

You seem to be misreading that.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

Please correct me, then. The surprising moment came when I noticed the vertical axis is for year-on-year change and not raw tonnage.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Yes. It goes from much higher than last year to much lower.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 hours ago (2 children)

My read was that it was much higher to prepare inventory for the tariff shock

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

I think the issue is you're waiting for the negatives to be equal to the surplus of one month, when the trend (from three points of data so do with that what you will) is negative. So, ostensibly, after enough months of negatives, there will be much, much more negative than positives.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 hour ago

Yup that’s exactly what I was doing, and I was surprised that the negatives won’t catch up until at least 3 months which brings us to July at the earliest.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 3 hours ago

Yes, and then, or rather now, incoming shipping collapses.

[–] [email protected] -5 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Are they gonna blow up some vessels? What doe she negative number mean? XD

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 hours ago

The negative number means that far fewer ships are arriving in LA than at the same time last year.

[–] [email protected] 55 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Most aren't even aware that this is coming.

[–] [email protected] 17 points 19 hours ago (2 children)

I can't wait to watch all the Trump-suckers loose their shit when they find out it's Trump's fault. If they can actually comprehend it as true, that is.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 11 hours ago (2 children)

They'll just say it's Biden's fault...

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 hours ago

That is also my knee-jerk reaction, but with Tariffs it's a pretty direct correlation to Trump now. Hopefully this will be what finally breaks him?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 hours ago (1 children)

They'll say it, but they won't truly believe it. They'll know the truth, or at least those that still possess some human awareness. There will always be those that are irredeemable, you can't worry about them, they're just lost.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 8 hours ago

Casual Qur'anic comment, lol. 😅

[–] [email protected] 18 points 19 hours ago

narrator: they did not

[–] [email protected] 23 points 19 hours ago (3 children)

I'm far less worried about the imminent supply shock to the economy and far more worried about the long term damage to things like the FDA. We've decided we're going to try to go from ~10% vegetarian to closer to 80% or 100% because I simply don't trust that thing like meat and milk can stay safe to consume. I do have a solid amount of food in my house, and if shelves start emptying I think I'll be okay for a bit, but that'll pass. I can't really leave this country, so I need to be planning for longer term problems too.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 10 hours ago (1 children)

I have this fear that we won't even be able to trust fruits and vegetables. The most common food contaminations in the news always seem to be unwashed lettuce and such, which makes sense because of fertilizers.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago

I’ve been preparing for some kind of problem with produce for a few years, I just had a gut feeling so I built a vegetable garden 3 years ago. Also have been planting fruit trees everywhere.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 hours ago

Ive been stockpiling canned proteins like tuna, chicken, clams, oysters, etc. even Spam. They may not be trustworthy in the future, but they are right now, so stack them up.

I can make a cheap but killer soup with a can of chicken, some ramen, and herbs, and i can even grow the herbs myself.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 18 hours ago

While the nation was functioning, meat and dairy would have been regulated by the USDA, not the FDA.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 18 hours ago

I'm soupmaxxing

[–] [email protected] 10 points 22 hours ago

People don’t really know what to do, except save money, cut back on disposable spending, and watch carefully. Maybe buy some big things early like a laptop or EV now rather than wait for the shock. The big problems are a few weeks to months away.

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