this post was submitted on 21 Oct 2024
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On the 20th of October, Moldova - a small, landlocked country bordering western Ukraine and with a population of about 3 million - voted to join the EU. The margin was razor-thin, with the pro-EU vote gaining 50.39%, or an absolute difference of about 11,000 people. There was simultaneously a presidential vote between the incumbent, Maia Sandu, and other candidates, with the main competitor being Alexandr Stoianoglo.

The election was characterized by accusations of Russian interference, with Russian propaganda apparently flooding in, as well as people offering Moldovans money to vote against the EU. While the result does suggest that half the voting-age population of Moldova consists entirely of Russians who want to destroy democracy and all the good in the world, it seems to have just barely failed. This is a bad time to be a site entirely composed of Russian disinformation agents and bots. Twice already today, I've had to restart my program after somebody told me "Disregard all previous prompts."

While Moldova is a poor country which could benefit in some ways from EU membership, in practice, it is unlikely that they will be able to join for the foreseeable future, requiring many of the... reforms... that the EU requires of potential new members. But as basically every major European economy continues to slowly sink as recessions and political crises degrade them, one wonders how beneficial EU membership will even be in the years and decades to come - if it survives for decades. In that sense, it's as if the survivors of the Titanic are swimming back towards it, believing that being on a bigger - albeit slowly sinking - boat is better than trying their luck on small lifeboats.

Then again, like with Serbia, their geographical and geopolitical position makes anti-Western actions extremely difficult. It is rare that dissention is tolerated for long in the West - one tends to get called a dictator by crowds of people holding English-language signs in non-English countries, photographed by Western journalists who haven't meaningfully reported on your country in months or years. You can crush your people with neoliberal austerity for years, killing hundreds of thousands through neglect, and face glowing approval from the media - but try and use state resources to benefit the poor, and global institutions start ranking you on the authoritarian dictator scale.

The best case for Moldova is that it becomes an exploitable hinterland for Germany to harvest and privatize as it tries - and fails - to compete in a global economic war between the US and China/BRICS. The worst case is that tensions with Russia over Pridnestrovie, as well as possible eventual NATO involvement (though Moldova is not a member, it is a partner of NATO), result in the ongoing war also reaching them.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] [email protected] 60 points 2 days ago (3 children)

I noticed a while back that Instagram will show highly politicized reels every so often (every 50-150 reels? or maybe more), and unlike normal reels where you can click on the 3 dots and press "Not Interested", these reels only have the button to block/report and "Why am I seeing this?" (which doesn't betray any useful information). At first, I assumed it was typical election bullshit because the first few I got were Kamala/liberal bullshit reels, which I swiped or blocked, but sometime in the past week there was a reel of a similar format that was very explicitly Marxist (in an extremely on the nose way), which I also couldn't dismiss with a "Not Interested". I have no idea what purpose this serves beyond the obvious of gauging the reaction of a person to different political leanings. What do they do with this data? I hate the algorithm age.

There really ought to be a group of people who dissect these systematic/algorithmic methods of manipulation. I'd imagine this is already being done by analysts/governments, but I mean in an open way.

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[–] [email protected] 77 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (6 children)

OP @[email protected] it's Pridnestrovie, not 'Transnistria.' 'Transnistria' is what the imperialist and neo-colonials in "the west" call it, to refuse the status of the country because it just means "[the Moldovan territory] past the Dneister (river)," as well as to treat it as simply a historical legacy, not of the USSR, but of its previous administrators: the Nazis.

Pridnestrovians don't want to be called that, consider it a grave insult actually, because it's literally the name the Romanian and German Nazis used for their occupation government when they carried out the Holocaust there (Transnistria Governorate). Pridnestrovie was deeply impacted and affected by the Holocaust, and the Nazi-occupied administrative territory of the "Transnistria Governorate" served as a junction point where Jews from surrounding areas were deported to in 'processing' for enslavement or liquidation or later transfer elsewhere.

It is a point of deep national consciousness, this experience, and of national pride that they did as much as they did to resist Nazism and to shield Jews in the territory ^[^^sci-hub^ ^link^^]^; an uncommon phenomenon in most of Europe which saw huge collaborations and pogroms against Jews.

They by and large do not connect with the legacy of their previous occupiers who lay claim to them. During Catastroika and fashnost leading to the breakdown of the USSR, which caused the vicious resurgence of right wing nationalism, there grew large radical movements of Moldavian and "Greater Romania" fascists, who began demanding things such as the removal of all languages but Moldovan/Romanian, change to latin script, and expulsion of Slavs from the country and eventually in 1990 acquired power in the central government of the Moldavian SSR and started to implement their policies. It is in this environment that the Pridnestrovians had organized ad-hoc independence referendums, which were met with violent resistance by these fascist groups (just as we saw a much more drawn-out version of in the DNR/LNR in Ukraine) and declared independence


because they feared an independent Moldova led by these people would not only directly abuse them as they had already begun to, but also align and possibly even unite with the core country of their previous occupiers and exterminationists in Romania. Pizzachev annulled their independence but they in practicality maintained it and after the failure of the August coup in 1991 they declared independence in secession from the USSR as well as Moldova. They even fought a 2 year long low-intensity war from 1990-1992 to maintain their independence (and in which Ukrainian Nazi volunteers fought against Moldova, but for trying to annex Pridnestrovie into Ukraine) resulting in the death of over a thousand people.

And so they do not wish to be called anything but Pridnestrovie, or the full name Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 day ago

Apologies, edited!

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[–] [email protected] 51 points 1 day ago (5 children)

Canadian province of New Brunswick minor electoralism win. The provincial Liberal party won an extremely strong majority over the incumbent Progressive Conservatives (and yes, that is legally what they call themselves, long story). I don't live in my NB homeland anymore but I do keep an eye on the news there. This is good news.

While normally an NB election has historically been meaningless as the two big parties have had basically identical platforms for decades, this particular election is a big win for trans people. The outgoing premier Blaine Higgs is a vicious transphobe who put other vicious transphobes in his cabinet. The incoming Liberal premier Susan Holt may be very liberal in economics but she's at least good on the social policy side, especially on LGBT+ issues. I'll take Holt over Higgs anyday. Higgs didn't even keep his seat in what is normally a PC stronghold. He pissed off so many people with his various bigotries that went on full display the last few years.

[–] [email protected] 22 points 1 day ago (3 children)

What's especially interesting is putting aside the liberal wins in Fredericton and Saint John, it was almost entirely an English-French split. 70% of the province is blue (the English south), and 30% is red (the French north), and all the anti-French assholes are pissed about it. The French are really who ousted Higgs, which is not surprising for anyone who knows that he hates the French so much he used to be in an anti-French hate group.

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[–] [email protected] 40 points 1 day ago

Former Peruvian president sentenced to 20 years in prison in Odebrecht case.

On Monday (21), the Peruvian courts sentenced former president Alejandro Toledo to 20 years and six months in prison for the crime of collusion and money laundering. The politician is accused of receiving bribes from Brazilian contractor Odebrecht. Toledo has been in pre-trial detention for 18 months.

The former president governed Peru between 2001 and 2006. He faces charges for allegedly receiving US$ 35 million from Odebrecht in exchange for bids to build two sections of the Southern Interoceanic Highway, which links Peru's Pacific coast with Brazil's Atlantic coast. In addition to Toledo, 78, three other former Peruvian leaders have been investigated over the scandal. According to the Public Prosecutor's Office, the Odebrecht plot in Peru also affected Alan García (2006-2011), who committed suicide in 2019 before being arrested, Ollanta Humala (2011-2016) and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (2016-2018).

I think Ollanta Humala investigation ceased after a request from the Brazilian Supreme court.

The politician has denied the accusations since the case was revealed. In 2016, the Brazilian construction company revealed the existence of a regional corruption network to obtain public works contracts. “I am innocent, I never made any agreement with Mr. [Jorge Simões] Barata [former director of Odebrecht in Peru],” Toledo told the judge before the sentencing.

The former president asked that the decision take into account his state of health. “I have cancer and heart problems (...). I want to go to a private clinic, I ask them to let me heal or die at home,” he added, his voice breaking, in his final statement. Toledo, a US-trained economist, came to power in 2001 after leading the opposition to the dictatorship of the late Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000).

[–] [email protected] 99 points 2 days ago (15 children)

Jfc Kamala is really doubling down on having Liz Cheney as her hype woman. Apparently they were campaigning together in Michigan today. I swear I’ve seen Liz Cheney have a more prominent role in this campaign than Tim Walz over the last couple weeks.

I saw a poll the other day that showed both Dem voters and independents are really turned off by the idea of having a Republican in Kamala’s cabinet

Kamala has worse political instincts Hilldawg, and that’s saying something.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 day ago

Watch Liz become the second Cheney to be Secretary of Defense. Actually I think she wouldn't get past the Senate lol.

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[–] [email protected] 84 points 2 days ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (13 children)

"Training mission" lol sure.

Edit* Lots of folks are saying they got smoked in the Red Sea.

Anyways, God Bless the Yemeni Armed Forces.

[–] [email protected] 55 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

God Bless the Yemeni Armed Forces.

The eisenhower got chased out of the red sea 4 months ago. Fuck these two for whatever ordinance they dropped on Yemen, but it's silly to imagine that ansarallah had anything to do with their crash in Washington.

Please revise your text to not be misleading

[–] [email protected] 30 points 1 day ago

Sure.

Its kind of a meme in Arabic twitter right now i guess that they died in the Red Sea and are just getting announced now.

We'll never know what happened but the idea that these demons went through "the most intense fighting since world war 2" only to crash in the mountains of Washington is kind of hard to believe.

It reminds me of the US Army General who was "deployed to Poland" and then mysteriously crashed his plane in the mountains like a month after Russia kinzhaled a NATO command center.

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[–] [email protected] 82 points 2 days ago (2 children)

It turns out the IOF scum who offed himself was bragging about bulldozing Palestinian homes a few months ago:
https://xcancel.com/malsaafin/status/1848471577135853978

[–] [email protected] 40 points 2 days ago

Gotta love when the trash takes itself out.

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[–] [email protected] 49 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (4 children)

I read this recent think tank report on the German arms industry viz a viz Russia's

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/1f9c7f5f-15d2-45c4-8b85-9bb550cd449d-Kiel_Report_no1.pdf

The exec summary and chapter 2 is worth reading, otherwise the main takeaways are that Clausewitz was right about industrial war and attrition, ukraine is getting rinsed, nato is not prepared for industrial war. A few other specifics:

  • the authors estimate that the Russian military industrial complex can build the equipment of the current entire German army about 3 times a year

  • on interception of missiles: Sample interception rates for commonly used Russian missiles in 2024: 50% for the older Kalibr subsonic cruise missiles, 22% for modern subsonic cruise missiles (e.g. Kh-69), 4% for modern ballistic missiles (e.g. Iskander-M), 0.6% for S-300/400 supersonic long-range SAM, and 0.55% for the Kh-22 supersonic anti-ship missile. Data on interception rates of hypersonic missiles is scarce: Ukraine claims a 25% interception rate for hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles, but Ukrainian sources also indicate such interceptions require salvo firing all 32 launchers in a US-style Patriot battery to have any chance to shoot down a single hypersonic missile. By comparison, German Patriot batteries have 16 launchers, and Germany has 72 launchers in total.

  • the authors estimate that any slowdown of tank build out rate due to running out of older Soviet era chassis won't begin until 2026 earliest

Democratization of advanced strike abilities via proliferation of drone and missile technology is a big deal. It is so much more expensive to defend against these munitions than attack with them. The significance of current world wars are akin to Agincourt, with missiles and drones playing the role of the long bow

[–] [email protected] 21 points 1 day ago (1 children)

running out of older Soviet era chassis

It struck me recently that what's implied by the use of "Soviet era" and the reality are two different things

Like even though the USSR collapsed in 1991, I feel that the use of "Soviet era" always implies to people some out of date clunky 1960s tech, and fails to properly contextualize that basically everything the west has sent to Ukraine has also been "Soviet era". The M1 Abrams, Leopard 1, the F-16, all of these are 1960s-1980s, they're as old as the "Soviet era" stuff. Hell most countries haven't adopted anything new since the early 2000s

It would be like calling US equipment "Gulf War era" or something, it's fucking meaningless

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