Nowhere in the article does it state where these extra votes would be coming from.

A majority of Democratic voters say the Gaza crisis is either very or somewhat important in determining how they vote in November, according to the AAI poll.

Really? There are registered democrats who are honestly and seriously planning to vote for trump if Kamala doesn’t embargo Israel? Something is not adding up here.

This hinges heavily on the theory that we've got a bunch of single issue Anti-Genocide voters. And I've lived through too many American sponsored genocides to believe it.

However, three things poll really well in the United States

• Cutting Spending on Foreign Aid (to literally anywhere)
• Looking tough in front of foreign leaders
• Getting the TV/Radio to stop talking about genocide

I doubt she'd get a full 5% bump (unless she announces this the day before early voting starts), because there would inevitably be a bunch of spin and backlash, assuming media didn't just switch to New Thing and leave her position on Gaza in the rear view mirror. But it seems pretty clear that she'd get some noticeable benefit by siding with American voters on a broadly popular issue.

Harris would bolster her chances in key battleground states if she backed an arms embargo.

Lots of Muslim communities in these swing Midwestern states who are already marginally primed to vote for the Democrats. It definitely wouldn't hurt, given the Uncommitted Vote count in Michigan and Pennsylvania during the Dem primary were some of the highest in the country.

She might even benefit in states like Texas and Arizona, given how many Iranian, Lebanese, and Turkish ex-pats live there. De-escalation in the Middle East would personally mean a lot to a co-worker of mine who still has family living in Tehran, for instance.

But its also very possible that the risk of offending a NY/DC media that's heavily influenced by AIPAC is just too high. The Israeli Lobby is already biased towards the Republican Party and its Evangelical Anti-Muslim Base voters. Perhaps Harris is simply terrified of what a foreign government with a proven record of reshaping public opinion might do. If Russia can flip an election with a $46k Facebook ad buy, imagine what an irate AIPAC lobbyist could manage with tens of millions.

She doesn't need to support an embargo. All she has to do is to say that the US is going to follow its own laws. As a former prosecutor, all she has to do is be the law and order candidate.

We need to know which states. Can they swing a state for the Democrats, is all the democrats care about right now.

If she does announce something like this it will be in late October when AIPAC can't make a difference anymore.

I sent her a few bucks when Biden dropped out and a few more when she picked Walz. If she said the words "embargo" or "war profiteering", though, I'd send her a whole damn pile of money. Won't hold my breath.

If I'm going to be completely honest; I feel like these people in support of such a withdrawal of support (of Israel) are going to have to move the needle A LOT more than a mere 5% to get the attention they want.

Might be acceptable to get a little louder about your issue; and properly educate people about it.

Gosh, I hope Genociding Bibi doesn't hear this. Imagine the hissy fit he'll throw!

But then, upon further reflection, I'm ok with that.

Mmmmm that 5% difference is so yummy.

I'll dream about it if I have to.

This data is bullshit. The results were from 1 week after Biden announced he was stepping down. As of this week, Harris is consistently polling over 50%.

Also, voters have to choose from "Let's find a ceasefite" Harris and "Fuck them, Isreal should nuke them" Trump. It's not even a question, stop pretending it is one.

Is this nationally or do they break down to state level? Because it's unfortunately somewhat meaningless beyond the likes of Pennsylvania.

Edit: Just national.

Y'all in this comments section really underestimating polls vs voter turnout.

Did everyone already forget 2016?

Michigan turned red over a sketchy candidate. No way in hell it's gonna be blue if a literal genocide supporter is the candidate.

And for all the "but muh ceasfire" comments, I'll be happy to shove the 2 minute pro palestinian speech into your ears since Harris banned it from being presented at the DNC rally after pretending to care about American Palestinians.

Pandering for votes with no change from Biden's stance because all hail that sweet sweet AIPAC money and Israeli war machine.

Unfortunately it is a balancing act but I still see doing an embargo as the winning strategy. It might lose them Pennsylvania but it would certainly guarantee Michigan. It would also likely help in the other swing states because it would energize more of the base and get more progressives out. At the very least, every post on Instagram would not be flooded worth slacktivist comments about the genocide in Gaza.

Commissioned by the Arab American Institute (AAI)

Props to the author, for putting this in the first sentence of the article letting me know so don’t need to read any further.

And there it is