Easy way to stop this, leave Ukraine entirely.
this post was submitted on 14 Aug 2024
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Hopefully the Ukrainian military thought this all through in advance and had a good idea of where those reinforcements will come from, and have some surprises in store for them.
To armchair general for a bit- they send out small, fast, agile squads in all directions that make a show of fighting then rapidly retreat. The enemy follows into dug in positions and a sky full of drones. Repeat until you've put enough of a dent into the enemy then massively counterattack the direction most of the enemy is coming from.
Why counter attack (with the majority of forces) right away? Russians have shown poorer abilities when organizing offensives compared to defending. The incursion into Russia by Ukraine forces the Russian military into attacking. This is as opposed to sitting behind a thousand minefields in unmoving lines inside Ukraine.
Ukraine can set up elaborate layered defenses and enjoy the defensive advantage to grind up more Russian military assets. This also gives Ukraine opportunities for small detachments to hit the Russian reinforcements on the move, which is something they've already been doing.
If I read it correctly, Ukraine is facing a very large force to the north and struggling to repel it. If you open up another front, you force Putin to hopefully take troops from there to use on the defence in Kursk, thereby lessening the load on the soldiers defending in the North.
Peeling off Russian forces is exactly what Ukraine has already done with this force. I believe it was entirely the point.
Russia is forced not to ignore this for numerous reasons, and it forces them to attack to expel the Ukrainian forces. Successfully attacking with conscripts is a more difficult proposition than defending.
Ukrainian forces inside Russia can continue to force the confrontation by advancing into undefended territory and/or launching limited small scale attacks to be a constant wound inside of Russia. Ukrainians have already been conducting these attacks on reinforcements on their way to stop the main Ukrainian forces.
All the while Ukrainians inside Russia can refuse to assault defended positions. Which is exactly what they did initially. They bypassed the heavy positions and refused to engage in heavy force on force assaults. Instead as local defenders they are creating a lopsided local situation.
As an aside, where are Russian air assets? Inside Ukraine the skies were contested, but the apparent inability of air assets to repel Ukrainians from Russian territory with air power is not a good sign for Russia.
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In many ways this gives Putin an out from this incredibly stupid war that he created.
Agree terms with Ukraine, peacefully take back the land they lost, declare victory, and stop this war for good. He can save face and maintain power until he dies while Russia stays a pariah to the world. Ukraine will still naturally join NATO, but without the threat of war Russia can just sit on what it owns.
IMO, this is the ideal time for some final sanctions on Russia by heavily fining all western companies that don't leave within 30 days. Cut them off entirely, and then bring them to the table to negotiate the return once Putin is gone. I don't see a progressive candidate entering Russian politics any time soon, but a non-KGB candidate without ties to the Kremlin might find power by having the west on their side - they just need to stay away from radiation and balconies.
He can't do that. Losing Crimea would be a death blow for him. Some trash human standing close to him has already picked out the window he will fall from and he knows it.
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Even when sanctions lift, it'll be hard to reenter Russia for practical reasons. My company left entirely, and it would be very hard for us to turn it all back on now. We'd be basically doing a whole deployment from scratch to the region.
Which is to say that, yeah, you can negotiate a potential return, but companies may not be quick to want to reinvest.
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At the risk of once again offending the people who read this as actually Cyrillic, this calls for another Rukraine post.
My Cyrillic reading eyes!!! They burn!!!
I tried to read that out loud and now there's a fucking Russian potato mephit just FOLLOWING me everywhere.
R?dui? D ?ocja iote?
Pretty much how I called it a day or two ago. Putin will now have to put more troops on his border with Ukraine permanently. Ukraine can continue to harass those troops. First though putin has to put together a successful attack to stall and repel Ukraine's advance. Meanwhile the troops already engaged with russias invasion may be able to put enough pressure on what remains to push them back.
Has no fresh ones in stock it seems
It reminds me of when rome did the same against hannibal and carthage
K now launch invasion of Crimea while they're busy with kursk
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