this post was submitted on 22 Mar 2024
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[–] [email protected] 173 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (9 children)

It's worth recalling when support for the Chechen war was low, Putin initiated a campaign of apartment building bombings in 1999.

Some chatter that there were around 8 shooters, and they walked into the hall and immediately shot 40-50, result might end up with over 100 killed. One of the shooters has allegedly been arrested, ISIS-K or Imarat Kavkaz would be under srict instructions NOT to be taken alive. There's considerable dueling narratives right now

No matter who is actually responsible - Putin will probably blame Ukraine

It looks like US Intelligence warned of this attack in early March.

People at the venue lost all phone and Internet connectivity right prior to the attack. Jamming was being used.

The entire city of Moscow is now on lockdown.

ISIS, through its outlet al-Amaq, just claimed responsibility for the terror attack in Moscow tonight.

[–] [email protected] 59 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

People were posting videos while the attack was happening. Where are you getting this information about "jamming" from? Nearby traffic distribution nodes were likely overloaded which resulted in degraded performance of Telegram and VK services. This is something to be expected when thousands or even millions of people start sending messages all at once, trying to figure out what's happening to their friends and family.

[–] [email protected] 40 points 8 months ago (6 children)

All the videos I've seen are CCTV which were distributed well after the fact. channel 12 from Russia reported the jamming. I'm aware of what a mobile network will do on overload since I used to design and deploy them. It doesn't quite work that way.

[–] [email protected] 24 points 8 months ago (4 children)

Telegram channels such as Baza, Ostorozhno Novosti and Vazhnye Istorii were posting eyewitness statements and phone footage as early as 20:15 Moscow time and throughout the event. There was no jamming. Degraded performance was reported for Telegram and VK. Whether the issue was with the local access points or Telegram's data centers is not clear.

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 8 months ago (1 children)

An excerpt from the article:

In October 2002, Chechen militants took about 800 people hostage at a Moscow theater. Two days later, Russian special forces stormed the building and 129 hostages and 41 Chechen fighters died, most of them from effects of narcotic gas Russian forces use to subdue the attackers.

[–] [email protected] 65 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (2 children)

Those are two separate events...

The false flag apartment bombings were carried out by actual Russian security services - not Chechen assets, or militants.

On an ~~related~~ unrelated note, ~~some of Russian agents who took part were comically stupid.~~ If you aren't aware of the Sims vs SIM card mix-up, do yourself a favor and look it up.

Edit: as pointed out below, the Sims vs SIM card was not part of the 1999 false flag operation, but a more recent one (2022). My bad.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 8 months ago (1 children)

The Sims comedy hour was a separate event from the other two, it was a 2022 attempt to frame Ukraine for terrorism.

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[–] [email protected] 22 points 8 months ago

It's worth recalling when support for the Chechen war was low, Putin initiated a campaign of apartment building bombings in 1999.

That was the immediate memory. It's interesting how much truth will be figured out in this current case.

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[–] [email protected] 105 points 8 months ago (4 children)

This is nuts. This better not be some bullshit to manufacture consent for war escalation.

[–] [email protected] 84 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Days after Putin's reelection? Sounds very suspicious indeed.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 8 months ago

Remember: no Russian.

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[–] [email protected] 27 points 8 months ago (1 children)

A lot has been said about Call of Duty MWII, but if your theory is correct then we'll have to say that, of all things, its plot was prescient. And i'm not ready for that

[–] [email protected] 35 points 8 months ago (5 children)
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[–] [email protected] 24 points 8 months ago (1 children)

I don't think so. The US actually warned about imminent terror attacks by ISIS in Moscow a few weeks ago.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Yeah at this point it seems pretty clear this is a ISIS terror attack.

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[–] [email protected] 66 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (16 children)

Has anybody claimed responsibility for this yet? This doesn't sound like the Ukraine. They hit strategic shit.

[–] [email protected] 56 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Not seeing anything yet but it can be hard to get accurate news reporting from a country that kills subversive journalists and is in a war. I think most are assuming it's either an internal or external paramilitary group related to the war in Ukraine, or domestic terrorists related to the recent elections, I think targeting a concert is more likely the latter but we'll see which group takes responsibility if any.

[–] [email protected] 38 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (16 children)

But Russia will immediately blame it on Ukraine and the west anyway lol

[–] [email protected] 37 points 8 months ago

Likely despite US intelligence warning about imminent terror attacks in Russia earlier this month.

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 8 months ago

The article mentions the US warned of an imminent attack last month and the Russian state dismissed it. Russia also has a history of utilizing false flag operations to start shit, so I’m leaning towards that atm (before more details come out)

[–] [email protected] 17 points 8 months ago (1 children)

I mean… Putin did get into power by running false flag terrorist bombings on his own country, so there’s that angle too.

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[–] [email protected] 39 points 8 months ago (3 children)

PSA. It's Ukraine, just Ukraine. Not "The Ukraine"

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Russia is not against doing false flag terrorist operations. That is how Putin came to power.

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[–] [email protected] 28 points 8 months ago

IS has apparently claimed responsibility via telegram

[–] [email protected] 24 points 8 months ago (1 children)

This would have the opposite effect for Ukraine. It would cause Russians to actually rally around the flag and be more pro war. The Ukrainian strategy has been to just kill Russian combatants and hope they kill enough that Russians themselves start protesting the war on the home front.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 8 months ago

And blow up oil refineries that fund the war machine.

[–] [email protected] 21 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

It wouldn’t surprise me if this was Putin’s doing. He has a history of committing violence against him own people and blaming others.

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[–] [email protected] 59 points 8 months ago (11 children)

The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement posted on affiliated channels on social media. A U.S. intelligence official told The Associated Press that U.S. intelligence agencies had learned the group’s branch in Afghanistan was planning an attack in Moscow and shared the information with Russian officials.

Respect to USA for trying.

[–] [email protected] 26 points 8 months ago (6 children)

The problem is that, this helps Putin. If we assume he has no regard for human life, then this is a massive opportunity for him. He's made the most out of opportunities like this one in the past.

This attack on innocent lives is a profound tragedy as it is. I wish I could spend more time dwelling on the plight of the victims but my brain won't stop panicking about all the ways Putin can exploit this situation to ruin even more lives.

It's why I couldn't shake the idea that this might be a false flag operation. It's why I can't deny the prospect that perhaps Russian security services didn't do all they could to stop this before it occurred.

My thoughts to the victims and those close to them.

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (10 children)

My bet: Russian false flag operation allowing them to pin the attack on Ukraine and stir up anti Ukrainian sentiment.

EDIT: My bet was likely wrong.

[–] [email protected] 45 points 8 months ago (1 children)

Didn't a lot of western countries warn their citizens to not attend any public gatherings in Moscow a couple of weeks ago due to an imminent Isis attack?

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[–] [email protected] 43 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (26 children)
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[–] [email protected] 27 points 8 months ago (17 children)
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[–] [email protected] 27 points 8 months ago (4 children)

Chechens finally making a move?

[–] [email protected] 30 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (3 children)

It could be. It certainly tracks with the separatists' move into guerilla tactics later in the second Chechen war.

Out of any time for them to start striking again, this would be it. Russia is stretched thin in manpower and supplies, and their attention is very focused on Ukraine and the West. Their ability to dump resources into the southern Caucus to tamp down a potential Chechen War #3 is definitely going to be limited. And coupled with the completion of Putin's sham election, it sends a very strong message against Russia's outward facade of "unity".

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 8 months ago (5 children)

They might have beards, hard to tell from the footage I've seen.

May be Islamic terrorism or a bad ol' fashioned Russian false flag. I doubt Ukrainians or Ukrainian supporting people would do a random terror shooting, they like to be more targeted and the shooting was at random people. There was a foiled group of Islamic terrorists arrested earlier this month, maybe another group.

We will have to see what Russia says.

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[–] [email protected] 23 points 8 months ago (1 children)

And of course uncle Putin is saying it was Ukraine.

US security services have notified Russia of an impending attack, they notified US citizens there to about large gatherings

Gunmen went in calmly, shot at people for 1.5 hours without being stopped, then calmly walked back into a car and drove off.

IS claimed responsibility immediately

All of this clearly shows it was the Ukraine!

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[–] [email protected] 20 points 8 months ago (7 children)

China and Russia just blocked a truce in Gaza. Makes sense.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 8 months ago (2 children)

So in essence:

  • US warns Russia for planned terror attack in Moscow

  • Russian government and Putin specific either ignore it for the reason the west is fooling them because would fit narrative for the war in Ukraine. Or

  • Russian government is just incompetent to do anything with that information. Or they know and deliberately don't do anything with it to link it to Ukraine (even though the perpetrators are IS). Since this was also done in 1999 to blame the Chechnyans, it would fit the profile.

Either way it will be Soviet style lying. The incompetence will be wiped under the rug. The deliberate holding back information and not adequate precautions will not be easily to be proven, yet it creates the narrative for the mobilisation. Fear is Russia's weapon of mass destruction, the lies are the instruments to fire those weapons.

“Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.”

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 8 months ago (1 children)

MSNBC is reporting that Russian sources are saying 40 dead.

CNN is reporting 40 dead, but that the shooting was at a shopping center outside the concert hall.

Still developing.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 8 months ago (1 children)

CNN is reporting 40 dead, but that the shooting was at a shopping center outside the concert hall.

In the video I wish I hadn't just watched it looked more like that to me.

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