Image is of a protest in San Diego against ICE.
On January 7th, 37-year-old Renee Good was murdered by an ICE agent in Minneapolis. While a considerable amount of the discussion online has been about the direction her wheels were turning and things like that, truthfully, I think it's just fundamentally bad to shoot a person to death with a gun if you happen to be a state mercenary enforcing an incredibly racist federal policy, regardless of the circumstances.
The murder has since prompted a wave of vigils and protests, not only in Minneapolis, but also in virtually every major city in the country. The demands are justice for Good in particular, and the abolition of ICE in general, to avenge its many victims. The Trump administration has done all they can to inflame the situation, designating Good a "domestic terrorist" and saying that the agent who shot her will be immune from prosecution.
Protests and resistance to this administration's policies have, encouragingly, had an element of international solidarity - not only are flags from countries throughout Latin America (and also Palestine) present, but speakers in protests have even been actively condemning the recent imperialist actions against Venezuela. For it is, of course, one joint struggle. The imperial boomerang always returns - and in the modern day, it returns rapidly.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
On US strikes on Iran:
My opinion/assessment in the previous post largely unchanged. There has been no significant US military buildup in the Middle East. However, the US does not need a large military buildup to hit hundreds of targets in Iran simultaneously, given the global strike capabilities of Ohio class SSGN guided missile submarines (154 BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles), and the US Air Force's strategic bombers flying from the continental USA: B-1B (24 AGM-158 JASSM-ER stealth cruise missiles), B-52 (20 JASSM-ER), B-2 (16 JASSM-ER, but unlikely to be used), and F-15E (5 JASSM-ER) fighter aircraft currently in Jordan (12 F-15Es). You can do the math: one Ohio class SSGN, a dozen bombers, and a flight of F-15Es can hit hundreds of targets anywhere in Iran, without having to fly into Iranian airspace or surface. However, what has changed is the evacuation of non essential personnel and equipment from US bases in the Middle East, and the movement of air defence assets within Israel. This significantly increases the likelihood of a US strike.
Why no US military buildup? The US doesn't want to give Iran any pre attack indication, such assets would take weeks to mobilise (too long, especially for an aircraft carrier to get there), and would open the US up to pre emptive Iranian strikes. However, such assets could be moved later, if any incoming US strike is to continue over a longer period of time. To fly into Iranian airspace, the US would need F-35s and EA-18Gs with the NGJ pods to suppress/destroy air defences and open up corridors into Iranian airspace, and F-22s to provide fighter escort and sweep. These particular assets are not in place.
On the B-2: B-2 bombers were used last time because they are the only aircraft that can carry the 30 000lb GBU-57 MOP bunker buster/penetrator bombs, 2 each, but that was for a specific mission. B-2s can deliver a lot more mass than F-35s, a B-2 can carry 80 500lb bombs, 16 1000/2000lb bombs, or 8 5000lb bombs, all internally. An F-35A or C can only carry 2 500/1000/2000lb bombs internally, and can only carry 2 5000lb bombs externally. F-35Bs are the same, but can't carry 2000lb bombs internally. So the B-2 is a lot more mass per plane, in particular with 500lb bombs. These are all guided weapons with high accuracy. However B-2s overflying Iran would require the deployment of F-22s, F-35s and EA-18Gs, which are not in place.
As for the US approach, cruise missile strikes (Tomahawk/JASSM) on the IRGC will likely be the primary method of US attack, of it happens. To illustrate that the US can strike any part of Iran without overflight, I found these images with the ranges on these weapons imposed over a map of Iran.
However, Iran can retaliate, they have a large arsenal of Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs), lots of them with maneuverable warheads/re-entry vehicles), an arsenal that has been unaffected by the 12 day war with Israel, these missiles don't have the range to reach Israel and Iran only fired 12-14 at the US, and most of those fired were older missiles lacking maneuverability.
Iranian SRBM arsenal
The US strategy to combat this is known as the Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) approach:
Notably, IAMD does not require suppressing air defences or fighter escort or sweep, which the US currently cannot do, no assets in place. "Attack operations" would be attacks on ballistic missile launchers and launch sites/missile bases, along with attacks on command and control facilities, largely by cruise missiles with two way datalink, the latest Tomahawks and JASSMs.
Is there any evidence Iran has a military satellite or access to one?
Yes Iran has reconnaissance satellites and a relatively advanced space programme, also Russia and China could pass on intelligence to Iran.
It appears Turkey has been providing Iran with intel regarding the Kurdish incursions via Iraq
Turkey has an interest in passing Kurdish intelligence.
Pakistan has an interest in passing Balochi intelligence.
Saudi Arabia is no longer surrounded by Iran with Assad gone, but they're now surrounded by Israel: Syria (North), UAE (East), previously Yemen (South), and Sudan (West). I say previously, because Saudi Arabia is kicking the UAE's ass left, right, and center.
Iran's geopolitical weakness and isolation is turning into collaborative strength.
Today on Dialogue Works on YouTube, 13 minutes in, Iran's Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh claims that Iran doesn't have any military satellites and that this was a key issue for their accuracy in Operation True Promise I & II.
I think this would explain the pathetic results we saw in targetting that Israeli airfield.
This is a government-backed channel, so they are in Iran and still have internet access.
Is the FM lying about Iran's capabilities? Are Russia and China not passing on intelligence to Iran?
Iran does have earth imaging satellites, look up the Noor satellites, those were their first ones I think. Maybe he means that Iran doesn't have GNSS satellites, which is true. Him talking about GPS interference hints at that.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
I saw someone commenting that the lack of US naval assets near Iran was a sign that there wouldn't be an attack, but that seems a bit wrong to me. My understanding is that any US surface navy assets meaningfully close to Iran would be in danger of antiship missiles.
Yes it's wrong because of what the US can do with bombers, also the Ohio class SSGNs exist (the US has four of them), submarines that operate below the surface and can fire without surfacing, and are extremely difficult to track, and can be loaded with up to 154 Tomahawks each. That's a very big naval asset. (This is also why the Trump class battleships make no sense).
As for bringing in an aircraft carrier, the US would need to bring in one with a flight wing that operates F-35Cs and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods to overfly Iran. Not all aircraft carriers operate this technology, for instance the USS Gerald Ford that deployed to Venezuela only had F/A-18E/Fs, and EA-18Gs with AN/ALQ-99 TJS pods. In that case, the F-35s and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods would need to be deployed seperate to the aircraft carrier (the US did with regards to Venezuela, with those aircraft operating out of Puerto Rico), and the aircraft carrier acts as a large amount of supplemental firepower with 4th generation aircraft.
Reports are coming in that the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) Nimitz class aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East. This makes sense, as it operates an F-35C squadron and EA-18G Growler aircraft with NGJ pods.
JASSM will limit use of GPS jamming because it is required to use well. INS is very inaccurate for cruise missile and no way to make it accurate. Iran can also jam the GPS. Problem of electronic warfare. Radio is very easy to jam but will effect you too. Hyperbolic navigation always will be limited by jamming.
US will also need large strike to overwhelm air force or to keep Iran on the ground. JASSM cruise at a high altitude to achieve range and can be shot by infrared guided missile with a line of sight.
That really depends. JASSM, from the first tests 24 years ago, was designed to be used in a GPS degraded environment and has received various upgrades since then to its anti jamming capability, both on the receivers on the missile itself, and US satellites have been upgraded (M code GPS). It also has an imaging infrared seeker in the nose.
This will not prevent ground jamming. Jamming is impossible to avoid for parabolic navigation system because it rely on signal from the satellite is stronger than the jam signal and fix the frequency because need specific propagation. Improvement will help with lower power mobile jammer, will make easier to use with own jammer running, but physics do not allow jamming to be stopped. US technology can not defeat physics.
Infrared seeker can provide very good terminal guidance (any modern missile should use in my opinion) but can not get missile to target.