this post was submitted on 09 Jan 2024
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Statecraft
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I have no doubt in Ukranians at all. russian can and will go to the hellhole it originally came from.
Can't say I fully trust the western politics to keep supporting them at a necessary rate, though :(
There are plenty of Russian assets in Western politics that are doing all they can to help Putin win.
I'm more concerned about Chinese manipulation. Russia may have practically invented social media foreign manipulation in 2015, but China is now much better at it. If China wants Russia to win (debatable), their influence campaigns may be more effective. And I expect this year to have the most effective influence campaigns ever. This year won't just be hundreds/thousands of troll farm accounts. With AI the bandwagon, pushing an opinion will be able to outnumber the genuine accounts. You won't just have one shilp with a couple shill responses. You'll have the first dozen comments be shills, with most having several shill comments in agreement.
It's an all-too predictable consequence of FPTP voting systems, ultimately. That may be too systemic a lens for this conversation though. Zooming in a little, it's a consequence of two party gamesmanship during an election year. US and UK-wise, at any rate.
First past the post is a huge problem, but I think the lack of support for Ukrainian freedom and effective defense of the US' security interests in this case is because of interference from the Kremlin. On social media and directly working with key Kremlin assets in the Republican party.
I remember when they spent July 4th in the Kremlin. If the parties weren't so insulated from their electorate by (dark campaign finance and) the voting system, I feel confident that this wouldn't be such a weakness of the American political system.
I have to admit I've never thought about this. What would the alternatives to FPTP be?
I'm always stumping for an Approval Vote, since it would select for greater consensus and force parties to get in line with their electorate. But just about anything would be an improvement. RCV is more popular in the conversation, but represents a rather watered down benefit.