this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2023
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Wait and see is not ignoring anything though, and have not read a single argument against it. Defederation can happen at any time for any reason in the future, why would you preemptively exclude a potential for ActivityPub to get major recognition?
I'm not excluding the possibility an EEE attempt, and meta's track record definitely shows they will try. But people using ActivityPub right now won't stop because a company forked it into their own standard, we are here specifically for the exact opposite. Meta literally has zero influence on any of us, if anything it's the exact opposite.
Also "learning from history" is a weak argument, every server admin as the possibility to defederate at any moment. When even the slightest misstep is placed, everyone defederates and Meta will live in their own little federated world, boo fucking hoo.
Here you have some arguments then:
Federating with a 10x larger entity that has a ton of very well known names on their list is going to dwarf anything that the fediverse so far has to offer. I‘m not saying in quality but definitely in quantity.
The argument is sound because its the exact same that happens with heroin. Your brain gets flooded with dopamine, you feel as happy as you have never felt in your life and likely will never feel again. The withdrawal symptoms are reported to be cruel. The reason is that „healthy“ amounts of dopamine just dont cut it anymore.
The same happens to people quitting big corpo „social“ media. I felt it and I have read of dozens who felt it as well (Obviously not as hard as heroin but the same mechanic). Now I‘m off the proverbial needle and meta federating is just going to bring us back to old habits. Endless, partly divisive content, potential for pushing ads with the posts and using our reactions for profiling.
Like the frog in the kettle we wont get dystopia tomorrow but like disney pushing their prices 50%, we get it eventually, bit by bit.
If meta ever defederates or limits the capabilities of fediverse instances, thousands of (again) hooked addicts will flock back to them. It’s literally obvious if you have any experience with addiction.
Also, we’ve had this discussion with covid, with climate change, with lgbtq rights, abortion… can we maybe start seeing the pattern here? Its always „not that bad“ while some are abusing and exploiting others and those who call it out have the „woke virus“ and are called fearmongers.
Fearmongering is if the media or the government does it, not people who are actually there using the stuff and suffering under things. That is called asking others for help/to understand.
You forgot profit.
If Meta/threads sees a way to cram ads into their instance(s), they will. If they offer money to others to put ads on their instances, they will. If they make rules or other demands of those making money - like no defederating from Meta/Threads, or requiring federating with other corporate instances, they will. On top of that, you’re going to get people drawn into the fediverse, like influencers, political spammers, more bots, and anyone else that follows that type of social media. Coders will start writing corporate-friendly instance code that will allow individuals (like influencers) to spin up profitable instances quickly that tie right into the corporateverse.
EEE will happen. We can argue about defederating from these corporate instances, but it’s going to be a running retreat.
Maybe hyperbolic. Maybe not. If, of course, if meta/threads finds the fediverse profitable.
I really enjoyed reading this although it is quite dystopian. Very well put. Thank you.
You know that someone with the ability to write like this could always write to the guy who founded mastodon for example (who apparently is on the hype train himself, who knows, maybe he has been paid already. But I got no evidence).
I‘m actually suspecting a lot of the „wait & see“ peeps to be paid actors or „true believers“ that already have a threads account and are working for the takeover.
I'm pretty cynical. I'm a huge sci-fi fan, and enjoy everything from Star Trek, to The Expanse, to William Gibson's novels. P K Dick, too.
You want to know which futuristic reality they projected is the one in the lead? I can tell you it's not the gleaming white space stations with hundreds of thousands of humans peacefully engaged in furthering knowledge and exploration.
Nope.
It's the despotic corporatocracy with the token ineffective government winning. The corporations rule all. Ever read Jennifer Government? Yeah, we're headed for Gibson's Sprawl and disparity in a hurry...well, if Climate Change doesn't get us all first.
I feel like I would like to read those but 1984 already made me wanna puke so I might have to pass.
Still, I very much get what you mean.
So then explain to me, how exactly does this impact you? What about you block the meta instance yourself? You will not see any threads content and will continue to use lemmy/ActivityPub in literally the exact same way.
If corporations get their hooks into the fediverse it will be like putting out fires. Plenty of people out there willing to sacrifice what the fediverse is for a few bucks. I don't want Threads/Meta to even get a toehold, that shit's poison.
Do you know how federation works? Because if you did you'd know that 'corportions get their hooks into the fediverse' does not mean anything. Defederation and forking of the source code is a click away, the reason lemmy exists is to move away from corporations. Contradicting that would just spawn a new lemmy federation.
Did you read what I wrote? Are you just being stubborn about human nature? Don't insult me by implying I don't understand this stuff at least at the surface level. All I'm painting is a potential future, and that future is depended on corporations finding the fediverse worth the effort. If they don't, NBD. If they do, I can assure you they will grind away at what the fediverse is until it's shaped like what they want, federation be damned. Like I said, maybe you can carve out a corpo-free area, but that depends on the instance operators wanting to put out the effort and money while corps are potentially waving cash in their direction. Humans are shortsighted and greedy.
Corporations will try ofcourse that's what they do, but denying meta federation from the getgo goes against the philosophy of federation. The points you're making NEED to be made, we NEED to observe how meta handles it and how all services are affected. We can decide from there whether your doom scenario holds any merrit whatsoever.
You curate your own feed, if you don't like seeing posts from that instance, then block it yourself. Like with NSFW instances, I don't see any in my feed, don't like them? Block them. For new users there will be instances who have defederated and those who have not. Why should your dopamine addiction be my problem? Advocating for every instance to defederate preemptively is more than counter productive, it's the very definition of fear mongering.
So no, your argument does not hold up.
Then we will defederate, people wanting that algorithmic dopamine hit are already getting it, and people in virtual rehab will know to block anything they want.
There is still no argument against the wait and see approach.
The same reason our taxes pay for mental health clinics, addiction therapies, methadone clinics and so on…
Because it is the right thing to do.
and secondly, because its not my problem. I‘m just aware of it. This article explains it well. There is a study about it but I can’t find it rn. https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/10/new-research-quantifies-why-you-want-to-quit-social-media-but-cant/
If you really want to compare social media to drug use, how does the need for decriminalisation fit into this? Don't limit what people can or can't do because you fear the outcome. Let everyone (ie users and admins) decide for themselves which platforms they want to see, and give them the tools to do so.
You probably see that you changed gears now, right?
I answered your question. That is why you should care and not jump on the bandwagon.
Just for completeness: i never said its completely the same. I said (and have proof) that social media can be and very often is addictive and keeping a profiting company out isnt keeping the drugs from people. Its cutting the dealer out. Basically the same as legalization if you will.
I agree with the premise that Meta is a horrible company and we pay close attention on how its federation progresses. I still have not seen a single argument that holds any weight, from you as well, against the wait and see approach.
"Because it's the right thing to do" is not an argument, it's a statement without anything to back you up. What is right is subjective to everyone.
Also, I have not changed gears, and still firmly believe there's a lot to be gained. Any concerns you have, I already answered. Anyone has a place in the fediverse, because its core principle is exactly that. Don't agree? Then block the fucking instance.
I have to agree with the other commenter now who said you're likely astroturfing. That or you have significant issues with empathy because the amount of dismissal you show towards other peoples concerns is staggering. Its obvious also from the lack of counterarguments you bring that no amount of sources, evidence or discussion would make you consider an alternative.
I would pity you but I cant say if you're not actually paid for what you do so I will just end this conversation now. At least other people are not only hearing your crooked perspective but also some sound arguments.
Lmao, I addressed everything you said, have not dismissed anything and countered every single one of your arguments and when you can't respond anymore you start with namecalling. Maybe don't pick fights you're not prepared for.
You responded with „thats not an argument“ or „i refuted your argument“ without anything to refute it with, just your opinion.
I‘m choosing to withdraw since you dont know how to debate. No point discussing with someone who doesn’t listen.
Edit: read my text. I‘m not namecalling you. I accuse you of having strong issues with empathy since you dismiss other people‘s problems so easily. You‘re not even able to refute that accurately.
So I tell you to block the instance, or join an instance that has defederated with meta, and you would have literally zero impact of any of what you said, did you reply to that? No.
So I follow your addiction rethoric and give you a real life example which contradicts that exact rethoric, did you reply to that? No.
I have the same concerns as you, express them but have a different approach, did you reply to that? No.
So now I'll tell you this, instead of projecting, pulling up a strawman and overall passive aggressiveness, do realise we're on the same team, we all want what is best for the federation. But the great thing about the federation is anyone can choose what they see, literally. For all I know federation with meta turns out to be a giant shit show, for all you know it turns into what could be the best thing for ActivityPub, more users, more publicity, more platforms joining in. I am open to being wrong, but are you?
Edit: Why not wait and see.
I do appreciate that you elaborate in your thoughts and opinions, I really do.
While that is true, I usually try to avoid biases. That is why I believe science, not people. I proved my opinion that social media has addictive qualities. The example you brought is not proof. That is why I didn’t think to refute it but felt like you were not being serious.
I accept that you probably want the fediverse to succeed but we have very different approaches to achieving that.
I can prove that the fediverse is growing organically. I can prove that aggressive growth is going to be very bad despite it being the current trend in business. I can prove that the fediverse is democratic and that meta is autocratic, and so on and so forth.
We are using different approached and have not been talking to each other but to ourselves, I‘d say.
If you‘re interested in a more open discussion, feel free to bring proof of your theories and we can discuss them.
I feel like we're having an actual discussion now. However, you go on about proving everything, while making unsupported claims yourself, don't you think that's a bit hypocritical? Ah wait, I'll give you some examples.
Claim 1: no proof this will happen, each instance can decide the degree of federation, no amount of users can dwarf an instance they cannot federate with. Blocking the instance yourself will exclude yourself from any of Meta's shenanigans immediately.
Claim 2: meta cannot limit the capabilities of the fediverse, if they change what ActivityPub stands for, we will fork ActivityPub into what it's supposed to be, having our federation sans meta like we have now.
Claim 3: Obsolete platforms have no way of defeating obsolescence, here's a paper on why dead internet platforms cannot be revived. There will ALWAYS be algorithmic, profit driven, centralised platforms, why would meta choosing to defederate lead to a mass exodus of lemmy when people who want that are already getting their fix? If anything, it could lead to more people joining lemmy instead. The point is we don't know. Also, making a statement like this is textbook fearmongering, which leads me to my next point.
Claim 4: Fearmongering - the action of intentionally trying to make people afraid of something when this is not necessary or reasonable. source
It is not reasonable to deny everyone the federation of meta because you fear a mass exodus back to facebook, according to my previous source people will find their algorithmic fix elsewhere, but rarely the same platform.
Claim 5: "the right thing to do" still does not mean anything: for ukraine the right thing to do is for russia to give back their land. If you're russia the right thing to do is for ukraine to give back their land. You see how this statement holds no value at all?
Claim 6: I agree with this one, so here are your sources why decriminalisation, ie not punishing users of them, but providing them the resources and tools to help them, is the way to go. Not one, but two sources backing that up.
Denying people the option of a federated meta instance will cause less people to switch over, period. Having a place where people can still access the other platform, without actually being on said platform will drastically increase the userbase.
Don't take my word for it, just listen to the lemmy devs:
source
So, from the 6 claims I listed, only one can be sourced.
Listen, I would really like to go through all this with a fine comb but the things you are saying just dont make sense to me. It is not disprovable that threads is 10x the size of the whole fediverse (larger by its inflated user numbers) and it is not a stretch to say they have much more content. I‘m sorry if you thought I was ready to discuss basic math.
Asking me to prove that eee is real and a real threat is not something I‘m gonna do. I don’t know what you‘re hoping to accomplish by this. You‘ll probably say I couldn’t but I referenced and linked relevant things like the article about the addictive qualities of social media and the downfall of the xmpp protocol. There even is a freaking wikipedia article about eee.
I cant help you if we cant agree on some basic principles
I‘m not able to continue this discussion as I feel like I‘m explaining things to a smart but inexperienced and extremely overconfident person which makes it excruciating to do.
The thing is, you‘ll always be able to wind out by some technicality and I would be working your posts 9to5 to disprove it all. If you were interested in gaining insight you‘d probably done so by now.
Good luck.
You are not able to continue the discussion because you have no idea what you are talking about.
Fuck you for wasting my time
There is your lack of basic decency from the beginning again. I learned a lot through the interaction with you.
Having been raised by narcissists, I often fawn if they start out brutal and become more tolerable, out of some misguided sense of hope. My own broken head I guess.
But I got that feeling talking to you when you started actually talking instead of just insulting me. I had to think about it again to actually find out the reason.
You literally need help.
What's wrong with you? Ignoring everything I say, getting yourself in a discussion you clearly know very little about, just regurgitating no original thoughts whatsoever. Garden variety psychologist, go back to reddit.
There are plenty of arguments. You're just not listening because you're likely just some dumb shill getting paid to astroturf for Threads like you assholes always do whenever corporations need your help convincing stupid people online corporate interests are what the majority wants.
Then go ahead, argue, I'm trying to have a civil conversation.
I host my own server to get away from monopolies, I actively support the development of lemmy and ActivityPub, what do you do exactly but detract credibility from your peers do have genuine concerns.
I ignore dumbasses like you and carry on with my life, knowing I can convince everyone else not to listen to you. Ignoring obvious astroturfing is an easy sell.
Clearly you are not, also having a civil discussion with people who don't share your point of view is an important life skill, try it out sometime.
So what exactly do you do for this platform except from spreading hate and intolerance?
Yes I am. Here, watch. Blocked.
What is EEE? Google insists it's either an expression or glee, or Electrical and Electronics Engineering.
Embrace, Extend, Extinguish, is a strategy tech companies (and a lot more outside of tech as well) have used to use existing open standard and over time slowly add, adapt and finally take over those standards.
It's a genuine concern this might happen to ActivityPub and Lemmy by extension by Meta, who is integrating ActivityPub as we speak.
Thanks for the explanation. I can see how this could be a concern, especially with the historical actions of every tech giant, Facebook included