Australia

He's very careful not to criticise Dutton but he's clearly cognisant of the problem Dutton has caused for the LNP.

Dutton for probably the last 10 years has gone about politics like we're the US or UK where you only need to actually motivate 20% of the population to win an election. You ramp up fear and anger and you get your base chomping at the bit, and you sow division so your enemies can't unite against you (look familiar, "Progressive No"?)

The problem is Australia has compulsory voting, which means Australia has the highest voter turnout in the democratic world at over 91% - and Australia has preferential voting, which means a divided opponent that outnumbers you will still elect one of your opponents.

To win an election in Australia you have to appeal to the political centre, and you have to appeal to people who are the opposite of rabid - to people who are just living their lives and don't care about issues that don't affect them.

So what does Dutton do? He stokes the flames until we have Cookers and Nazis rioting in our streets over things regular Australians don't care about. He goes on and on about Nuclear when 1/3 of Australian homes have solar and can see the huge difference on their bills.

He has to convice the centre to be scared of the LGBT community, after 2/3 of Australians voted in support of gay marriage. He has to be able to convince the centre to be scared of China, when 20% of Australians are asian. Australians at the centre enjoy the status quo, and the status quo is no longer the Australia Dutton is trying to resurrect.

People are concerned his strategy is working because he's winning the No vote. But a zero-sum election between change and the status quo is perfect for his political strategy. In a real election he's going to drive the LNP towards Mark McGowan levels, and like in WA the Nationals might start to rethink the balance of power in the party.