this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2023
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It makes sense that they won't allow their own skin to be ravaged (United States, Britain, Germany, France etc), but why not the Baltics and Poland, at this point?

I'm surprised they haven't done so, after these long months

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[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No Western power in modern times has put its troops inside the borders of a sovereign nation without being invited either by the nation itself or on behalf of an international coalition cooperating for what they believe to be the common good.

USA. Syria. Literally still happening. Your statement is still technically correct, if you're willing to go mask off. Feel free.

So we’re going with the approach of arming & training Ukraine’s military to hold the Russians to a standstill and maybe even push them back even though they are heavily outnumbered.

I'm not sure why you need "even though" there. Yes, Russian forces in country 404 are heavily outnumbered.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

I don't understand how people think that Ukraine is "holding" Russian forces anywhere.

How many of their total military personnel do they have deployed along the southern front, protecting their supply lines to Crimea? A tenth of their forces at most?

What is to stop Russia from deciding to take Kiev in the winter with another couple tenths?

NATO deliberately crossed Russia's diplomaticly stated red lines by courting Ukraine, and now they are just milking the war profits until the inevitable outcome of Ukrainian depletion.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

What is to stop Russia from deciding to take Kiev in the winter with another couple tenths?

  1. Logistics. There's evidence to suggest last year's mobilisation was limited because MOD did the math and figured they couldn't supply a larger number. You can't just grab a bunch of people and tell them to go kill. You need to provide uniforms (multiple sets each, at least for different weather), arms, ammunition, body armour, food.

  2. Possibility that NATO will start shit from another angle. You'll the recent flare up in Karabakh. Last year there was an artillery skirmish between IIRC Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (conveniently at the time of SCO summit). There's a new such skirmish brewing already. Georgia, Kazakhstan, etc. Don't underestimate just how surrounded Russia is by NATO.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

What is to stop Russia

That's a good question. Something clearly does. Can't afford to keep some other borders and Syria unattended for one. Also, that's pretty expensive and Russia is by no means unaffected by "sanctions", even if they didn't have the expected effect.