this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2023
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It makes sense that they won't allow their own skin to be ravaged (United States, Britain, Germany, France etc), but why not the Baltics and Poland, at this point?

I'm surprised they haven't done so, after these long months

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

What is to stop Russia from deciding to take Kiev in the winter with another couple tenths?

  1. Logistics. There's evidence to suggest last year's mobilisation was limited because MOD did the math and figured they couldn't supply a larger number. You can't just grab a bunch of people and tell them to go kill. You need to provide uniforms (multiple sets each, at least for different weather), arms, ammunition, body armour, food.

  2. Possibility that NATO will start shit from another angle. You'll the recent flare up in Karabakh. Last year there was an artillery skirmish between IIRC Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (conveniently at the time of SCO summit). There's a new such skirmish brewing already. Georgia, Kazakhstan, etc. Don't underestimate just how surrounded Russia is by NATO.