A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Students in front of the Mujahidin Grand Mosque in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, with an ominous, thick haze obscuring vision.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe last week has been quite a busy one for world energy markets. The first big piece was the reveal that the US is removing sanctions on Russian fuel exports until April 2027. This has been yet another fascinating collision of the Ukraine and Iran Wars, and, of course, another example of all the complicated situations that countries that are otherwise geopolitically aligned can get themselves into, as obviously Russia being allowed to export more diesel does bend the curve on shortages to a degree. China "helping" the West by reducing their demand for foreign oil purchases for much of this year as they drew from their enormous domestic oil reserves is another example of this kind of dynamic. Given how much Russia has helped Iran - especially now, with large increases of Caspian Sea vessels helping Iran mitigate some of the blockade's impact - I don't view this as a betrayal, but more of a unfortunately necessary geopolitical tactic, particularly if increased Russian state revenue lets them defeat the NATO-backed forces they're fighting a bit easier. Regardless, it would be very unfortunate if most of Russia's diesel went directly to the US and not to other struggling countries (not least among them, Cuba), as that would give the US a bit more road to kick the can down.

Ukraine has not taken this news well. It can be hard to figure out to what degree Trump is using kayfabe in any particular situation, but Ukraine immediately striking a Russian diesel export station (to which Russia retaliated by knocking out power throughout much of Kiev) seems to have genuinely annoyed him, e.g. saying that Ukraine should get a new leader. He also tried his classic move of willing a ceasefire into existence purely by social media decree. This worked during the Twelve Day War, but not here - at least not yet. I'm currently cautiously disregarding rumors that the US is going to actually take away intelligence or material support from Ukraine. It's not impossible, and would actually be another data point in the trend of the US withdrawing from Europe (with their bombers evacuating their UK base very recently too), but this antagonization of Russia has been a plot in the making for over a decade, and I would be surprised if Trump was allowed by the powers that be to interrupt this plan in any meaningful way. Perhaps there will be some largely symbolic move instead.

Over in West Asia, Ansarallah is tidying up their encirclement of Taiz, with the noose tightening around PLC forces. The Saudi counteroffensive was very Ukrainian; i.e. it existed mostly as a media phenomenon, but somehow even more half-hearted. Their sole territorial acquisition up to me writing this is 10-20 miles of largely empty coastal plains and an airstrip that Ansarallah, without an airforce, has no real use of. In return for Saudi bombing, Ansarallah has continued hitting oil infrastructure, and additionally escalated by striking terminals at King Khalid airport. Ansarallah gave several warnings to immediately evacuate everybody inside, and the Saudis did not even bother to sound the alarm of an incoming missile, which is emblematic of their desperation to maintain the illusion of the pre-war status quo. The strike on Terminal 3 killed about a dozen people and injured a few hundred. While Saudi airlines are trying to maintain operations, several Western airliners are pausing flights for now, which mirrors the air blockade that the Saudis have forced on Yemen for several years. Meanwhile, Iran has escalated strikes on tankers both inside the Strait of Hormuz and far outside it, as it truly starts to slam the hammer down on what limited illegal transits were making it through. This comes in the form of both missile/drone strikes and naval mines and will keep physical oil prices elevated well into the short and medium terms if maintained. Additionally, the US continues its reported buildup of forces for another try at striking Iran, possibly before the midterms, but I sincerely don't know what they could possibly hope to achieve beyond trying to get more votes from chest-thumping jingoistic morons while yet further degrading their position in the region militarily and economically.

Meanwhile, over in Southeast Asia, air pollution has dramatically increased over the past few months due to manmade wildfires in Indonesian forests and peatlands, which were caused by profit-seeking slash-and-burn farmers clearing land with fire, and then further exacerbated by one of the worst El Ninos on record. This bourgeois idiocy has caused untold environmental damage, hundreds of thousands of cases of respiratory illnesses throughout Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, prolonged closures of major institutions like schools, and required the distribution of oxygen cylinders throughout parts of the populace to try and keep them alive and at least vaguely healthy.


Last week's thread is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 70 points 22 hours ago* (last edited 21 hours ago) (20 children)

🚨 Egypt’s National Defence Council, chaired by President El-Sisi, approves deploying troops in Saudi Arabia. Parliament due to convene for emergency session today to authorise defensive measures to support the kingdom

https://nitter.perennialte.ch/ahmed/status/2111737975046582285

another day in comprador excellence. hopefully mrx. ansarallah just mine the strait and adopt zen posture around bread prices in egypt.

in indonesia semi-news, stock market fallent by 11% in a day:

A warning from MSCI that it may exclude Indonesia from its stock market indexes — benchmarks ​used by global financial investors — risks cutting the nation off from international capital and relegating it to an investment backwater.

as you can see it's not that bad, yet.

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  • [–] 7 points 7 hours ago* (1 child)

    Is Egypt going to deploy their Russian made S-300VM/SA-23 Gladiator/Giant ballistic missile defence (BMD) system to Saudi Arabia? Very different system from the S-300P series which is not designed for BMD, SA-10 Grumble/SA-20 Gargoyle (Chinese HQ-9 and HQ-9B lineage is from S-300P, HQ-9C is more similar to PATRIOT PAC-3 and S-400/S-350 equipped with 9M96). S-300V is specifically designed for BMD during the cold war, Israeli Arrow 2 is similar on the interceptor side in some ways. Putin joked about selling it to Saudi Arabia before. Pakistan don't have HQ-9C, only HQ-9BE, which they already deployed. It looks like Saudi Arabia is looking for more ballistic missile defence capability vs maneuverable ballistic missiles, in short supply globally.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 hours ago

    So Egypt wants to involve itself in this to... dump all its Russian interceptors over Riyadh?

    Ignoring the big "well duh they're a US asset", their most immediate military threat comes from Israel's expansionist rhetoric, and their long running goal of circumventing the Suez by digging a trench through Gaza. Plus, their BMD stocks could be enough to blunt Israel's ALBM arsenal, which is much fewer and less advanced than Iran's (and potentially Yemen over time). Israel is the closet Egypt has to a "peer" rival military, at least amongst the militaries they can expect to be engaged against within this decade.

    Meanwhile, fighting the YAF is a lost cause, at best you're gonna take some nasty hits to sensitive targets, at worst you're gonna face down Iranian missilesn too when they rightfully lump you with the gulf states - and the cutoff date for who makes that club for the next wave of fighting is nearly here.

    Perhaps there is some benefit to building combat experience with these systems, and perhaps there's some favour to be curried with the imperial core, but there is also inherent risk with joining in the Gulf's crab-in-a-bucket grand strategy.

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  • [–] 17 points 17 hours ago (1 child)

    Does the Suez infrastructure have missile defences? Does Ansarallah have anything that can reach that far? Egypt's government might not want to go poking this bear too much.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 hours ago*

    Ansarallah has struck Israel (ie. north of the Suez) multiple times with heavy drones and ballistic missiles already. The ballistic missiles themselves weren't the most advanced models available to Iran at the time, and the evidence points to their capabilities improving since then. Oh, and that was with the US and EU placing a bunch of warships in the red sea to bolster Israel's air defenses lol. Perhaps Egypt sees the port city of Um-al Rashsash ("Eilat") as a model for Egyptian economic development?

    Does Ansarallah need to strike Suez, though? You could blockade it along the Bab el Mandeb with less resources and political outcry, and the Suez itself likely has some defensive and engineering capabilities. Additionally, keeping the Suez open gives Ansarallah the option of permitting friendly ships passage, rather than blocking everyone.

    If a country wants to pressure a neighbour whose settlements are downstream of some large river basin, they don't need to bomb anything; they just build a dam.

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  • [–] 16 points 17 hours ago (1 child)

    A warning from MSCI that it may exclude Indonesia from its stock market indexes — benchmarks ​used by global financial investors — risks cutting the nation off from international capital and relegating it to an investment backwater.

    If I can't see it, it's not happening, lalala, economy good, line go up, exclude more data

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  • [–] 24 points 19 hours ago (3 children)

    Sisi is old as fuck, hated, and doesnt have an heir to the presidency. try it.

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  • [–] 26 points 19 hours ago* (2 children)

    in imperial center USA, 71 is barely old enough to run for president

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  • [–] 31 points 21 hours ago (7 children)

    They're setting up their own guys for when MBS get hit by a missile. #trusttheplan

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  • [–] 38 points 21 hours ago (6 children)

    egypt cannot even imagine making a plan, much less a daring one, they just get cia directives from usa embassy and ask for loans.

    arrest convoys to gaza? got it, boss.

    strike sudan? got it, boss.

    deploy aa systems to fight yemen? believe it or not, also got it.

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  • [–] 24 points 20 hours ago (5 children)

    they could not even protect the Suez from Yemen!

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  • [–] 21 points 19 hours ago (4 children)

    they couldn't even protect it from a boat and those fuckers are supposed to be there

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  • [–] 7 points 17 hours ago (3 children)

    I know nothing about cargo ship logistics, but are there internationally-agreed security measures about in depth cargo inspections before a ship can transit the Suez or Panama canals? What's genuinely stopping some group from just loading up a cargo ship with massive load of high explosives and detonating the whole thing in a sensitive area in the passage?

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  • [–] 11 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (2 children)

    they stopped dreaming big sometime ago.

    no, but fr, it’s not inspections issue (there is always a shit port somewhere without fancy scanning machines), it’s bureaucracy or crew issue (the mysterious shipment will have starting point and name on a document), and for big vessel you will need maybe 100 tons top of deck to do it via containers, not very good for crew. much easier to attach magnetic mines, no evidence, no trail, small foot print, no crew victims, cause it will be slow sinking.

    it’s rather a question of the missing joker in the world, nobody who can afford two divers with rx charges will want that to happen, the last joker was joker-laden

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