this post was submitted on 09 Sep 2023
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Using Ukraine to offload old weapon systems, fund the US military industrial complex, test weapons in a peer to peer scenario, and destroy Russia as much as possible through Ukrainian deaths rather than American. They are spinning it as a moral crusade to uphold democracy, just like they do in every other conflict they are involved in. The Ukrainian government and a vocal part of the Ukrainian people are calling for assistance, but also a large proportion of those fighting were conscripted against their will, which shows they do not want to fight. I don't think the fear of escalation is why new weapons are being withheld for so long, if it was they wouldn't be sent in the end. I feel it is just to keep Ukraine and Russia struggling on in stalemate, which devastates the country and leads to more and more death.
Indeed there are wishes and reality. I told you my wishes so you don't think I hope for some 'Ruzzian genocide of all Ukronazis' or something. The reality is a ceasefire and peace talks will save lives. That's why I advocate for it. Where it goes from there is up to Ukraine and Russia, but an all or nothing mentality does not seem to be working for either of them.
Most neighbours are in NATO now, except Ukraine obviously, and those aligned with Russia. I don't feel that two diametrically opposed blocs sharing a big border while propagandising against each other is very stable, especially when you factor in that Russian support apparently includes countries outside the local region, just as with Ukraine.
The fact that Hungary, a nation that is clearly under a right-wing, reactionary government, is a part of NATO shows how little those in NATO actually care for democratic rule. Also the alignment with the Saudis, and the propping up of Israel despite their constant crimes against the local Palestinians. I'm not saying Russia cares about democracy, the results of Yeltsin's rule have clearly crippled them on that front, along with Putin's never ending run. The point is to see that these are two powerful and primarily self interested blocs, and any time they start talk about how they are fighting for good it should raise some eyebrows at least.
The fact that you keep ignoring is that Ukraine is asking for the equipment. NOT asking for any boots on the ground but their own. They are willing to fight this war, they need equipment.
Not just the President of Ukraine or the government, but pretty much the whole of civil society.
I'm not ignoring that, I explicitly stated that the Ukrainian government and a vocal part of the population is asking for aid. That doesn't mean the US isn't using them. There is also a large number of conscripts who are forced to fight, and were either prevented from leaving the country or some basically kidnapped. Those people would definitely benefit from a ceasefire and peace talks.
I am not so sure who is using who at the minute, but sure. What's for certain is that the Russian military, such as it was, is suffering heavy losses, with plenty of busted myths (invulnerable hypersonics, indomitable Armata etc...). It's a good return for the USA helping Ukraine, no doubt about it.
Turns out Russia are a second tier military, who was halted by previous generation US handheld anti-tank weapons and Ukraine are holding their own using second tier equipment for the most part. Turns out when you put loyalists in charge of the military, they might not be so effective. All the bloviating nonsense coming out of the Kremlin turned out to be hot rectal air.
As for a cease fire, sure, so long as Russia doesn't use that time to reinforce their positions in Ukraine. Because they are occupying Ukrainian land. Would it be acceptable to give up that land (because that is effectively what a cease fire would accomplish, no matter what the "talks" determine)?. Russia understands only strength and force, whether they are using it or recieving it. Giving them a chance to strengthen while "talks" are ongoing only strengthens their position. As we talk Ukraine is encroaching on Donetsk airport, occupied since 2014. Continuing to weaken Russia creates a better position to negotiate from.
And Russia reneged on a prior treaty with Ukraine too, so it's not like they are trustworthy. They have already openly stated Ukraine has no right to exist.
Yes the Russian and Ukrainian military, both made of up actual people many of whom were conscripts, are both suffering heavy losses. That means lots of death. I don't see lots of death as being worth finding out the Russians overhyped their weapons.
Second tier military remarks are pretty surprising to me. I don't get why so many people seem shocked that a country that suffered a decade of basically mob rule and ruthless resource extraction by oligarchs after the collapse of the previous political entity doesn't match up to the last remaining superpower that has had no real war or massive disruption on its land since the American Civil War. Sure, in a peer to peer fight, which Russia against Ukraine is, Russia is not doing the equivalent of 'impressively' taking Baghdad in three weeks. It's a completely different war. And yes the corruption obviously plays a huge role in how underwhelming the Russian menace seems to western audiences. I'm not saying this as some massive Russia supporting spiel, I am just constantly surprised by this take.
I imagine in a cease fire before official peace talks both sides would reinforce unfortunately, that tends to be what happens and I'm under no illusion that it isn't. As to whether it would be acceptable to give up this land, it comes down to whatever is agreed to in the peace talks. I personally am all for giving up land if needed, especially land where there was a legitimate civil war happening before the Russian invasion, but it doesn't have to happen that way. Before the inevitable accusations of 'thats literally appeasement, Hitler, Chamberlain, 1939, etc' a podcast called Citations Needed has a good rundown on why that is an often dishonest framing for situations. Episode 89.
https://citationsneeded.libsyn.com/episode-89-how-charges-of-appeasement-equate-diplomacy-with-treason
They also do a good episode on the idea of 'whataboutism' which I wish I had remembered earlier. Episode 66.
https://citationsneeded.libsyn.com/episode-66-whataboutism-the-medias-favorite-rhetorical-shield-against-criticism-of-us-policy
Obviously you don't need to agree with their takes, but it helps to put it into perspective.
There has been a lot of discussion around the Budapest agreement and the Minsk agreements on Lemmy already, so I won't go into that as others are more knowledgeable than me.