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this post was submitted on 04 Aug 2026
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I think that after the takeover of Crimea in 2014 and the direct Russian interference in two Ukranian regions were it pushed for their separation from Ukraine and merging with Russia as well as its long ongowing interference in Ukranian politics, it's reasonable to think that the Russian actions were mainly driven by its leader's desire for the resources of Ukraine, namelly the Gas Fields in the Adriatic and its highly productive agricultural lands.
Russia has a long tradition of imperialism, most notably displayed in recent History when it transformed into the Soviet Union and annexed quite a number of independent countries as well as taking control of some more.
I'm not saying that America has not interfered and doesn't have influence in the region, I'm saying that the tradition of Russian autocratic leaders is to take other people's shit if they think they can get away with it, and given the size and military capabilities of Russia, that would make Russia under Putin a credible threat for any small nation bordering it.
I mean, just ask the Finnish: a good chunk of their country on the side of the Russian border even has their main roads going parallel to the border and very few roads in the a direction from the border towards the center of Finland, exactly to make it harder for any Russian invasion force.
Ukraine, which is one of the largest nations of Europe by territory and population (about as many people as the UK, but much larger) barelly avoided a loss by decapitation in the first week of the invasion and had Russia invaded a smaller country, they would would probably have succeeded.
I'm not saying that in Europe Russia would be a very credible threat to the likes of Poland, I'm saying it would be a crdible threat to the likes of Estonia and Latvia.
Russia has gas and agriculture. No need for them to reach for Ukraine's. But the prospect of losing Crimea once the lease was up for their naval base on the other hand, I think Putin saw as existential. And taking it was a slippery slope, because once Ukraine diverted water from Crimea they needed the provinces upstream from Crimea, and here we are.
Again, not making excuses for Putin. As you point out, Russia has not given up on imperialism. All of Russia's bordering states have to be constantly vigilant of this, and not just in Europe for that matter. Individual countries like Latvia can't ward off Russia, so a defense alliance is necessary for sure.
But ultimately I think that for Europe, Russia is a nuisance compared to the United States.
Your claims about Russia not needing Ukrainian Territory and thus not having desires for it contradict what Russia ALREADY did back when it created the Soviet Union, which I already pointed out.
Historically Russian behavior has been one of wanting to take over territories bordering it so it makes sense to at the very least suspect they still want to do it, especially given that the actually HAVE BEEN DOING IT repeatedly.
Putin's claims of "existential" threat "if Russia didn't take over Crimea" fall into the category of "self-serving red-line defined by myself only", or in other words, a paper-thin bullshit excuse to do what he wants - anybody can claim to believe whatever. It's something in the same category as America's Bush Administration "Weapons of mass destruction" excuse for the invasion of Iraq, but even more fragile as an excuse since it entirely rests on what Putin's claims of what his own beliefs are.
That said, I totally agree that for Europe, right now, Russia is a nuisance compared to the US, especially considering just how far Europe has made US surveillance-enabled software and hardware part of just about everything. My point is that about how 10 years ago, before having seen how Ukraine managed to stop their military, the belief that Russia was a credible threat to the European nations was entirelly valid since there was a perception of Russia's military capability both on the European side and on the Russian side (which indirectly meant they were more likely to get into "military adventures" thinking they would win) which was much bigger than the reality shown in Ukraine.
Ultimately we're both speculating. We can't know why exactly Russia has been attacking Georgia and Ukraine. I see your point that historically Russia has tried to consolidate both territory and ethnic groups; my assessment is that if they wanted farmland there were much easier targets than Ukraine. But I think we're in agreement that Russia is not trustworthy, having conducted all kinds of covert operations inside the EU and constantly testing European defenses.
I think that most people 10 years ago thought that Russia would just have steamrolled Ukraine, and that's the point I tried to make with my first comment. I was the complete opposite, but for the record, I wasn't right either! I thought that Russia knew that it wasn't going to be able to take enough territory in Ukraine to end up with a long-term sustainable situation. So I genuinely didn't take the threat seriously, up until they started building field hospitals at the border, and I barely believed it even then.
So I'm not at all holier than thou here. I'm just frustrated that more isn't done to preempt the United States while they're on a trajectory that I think they've been telegraphing quite clearly.