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this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2026
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Ukraine
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I am declaring russian air defenses shattered at a systematic level, that is not the same thing as declaring "success" whatever you mean by that, it is also not the same thing as there being no air defenses left in russia.
Yes exactly, see the rise of Ukraine beginning to utilize glide bombs more and more with their fighter-bombers at intense flashpoints on the front as a direct example of that happening in real time.
Ukrainian drones are having a hayday in crimea too.
The hilarious part is I am sure the higher ups in the russian military in Crimea are praying for Ukraine to launch a counterattack into the Kinburn Spit and Crimea so they can withdraw from such an existentially unsustainable positions in Crimea before they hemorrhage all their logistical capacity... but Ukraine is playing the waiting game and it seems like the worst possible situation for russians to sustain and yet what can they do? They must know as well as we do that Putin is likely personally and politically incapable of pre-emptively withdrawing from Crimea... it is a wonderful little situation I think.
What a good thought! Yes, it's like a ceasefire would not benefit Ukraine right now, but/and putin would never ask for one because he's not a strategic thinker.