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Aight, ima casually address the disparity in information. I'm in pain, so I'm not fucking with digging up links or reverifying stuff I've looked up a dozen times in the past, so keep that in mind regarding details.
So, is there a difference?
Maybe. There's really limited study done on the matter. This means that, depending on where you go looking for information about the distribution of trans people, you'll see either that the numbers are roughly the same (with mtf, ftm, and nb each being roughly a third of the trans population), or that there are roughly 2 trans women for each trans man, the most commonly given ratio of 2:1. I have seen it expressed as more 1.5:1 or as high as 3:1, but 2:1 is what I ran into most often when looking for info.
If there is a difference, there are multiple probable factors.
The big one is that there still isn't a difference in occurrence, only in reporting. This means that it's possible that the numbers are still roughly the same, but that trans men aren't always speaking up and/or being counted.
But there are suggestions that the underlying in utero changes that create trans people (and supposedly other variants of the human gender and sexuality spectrum) may simply occur more often in pregnancies where the fertilized egg is XY. That may is a big one, it should be MAY! There's a lot still unknown about what all variations can occur in utero vs being hard coded, so I can't pretend there's scientific certainty about how trans people develop vs cis people.
Now, beyond that it could also be social/cultural. It is often more acceptable for a woman to present in culturally "masculine" ways, so individuals may feel that they don't need to do anything beyond that for their personal path. It is unusual for men to be accepted for presenting in culturally "feminine" ways, and thus trans women may need to do more than some trans men do, including actually declaring themselves trans rather than quietly passing (which is why is possible it's purely a reporting issue).
And yes, as much as I hate to bring up passing since passing isn't mandatory to be your self, it's necessary to mention it. It isn't even a term I like, it just feels shitty to claim that anyone gets to decide what is and isn't the "correct" presentation of a gender. But for this purpose, it's the one that'll need the least explanation.
Anyway, there are trans men that can both be satisfied with, and pass with no more than changing their name and manner of dress. This is also possible among trans women, but less often as far as anything I've seen covering this subject has said. And it is possible that the number of trans women that aren't counted among trans women by virtue of passing is high enough that it would skew the ratio back to higher. But it is, again, often brought up as a possible explanation for any numeric imbalances.
The other factor I've run across is that trans men may be less aware of being trans, in part because of being more free to engage in traditionally masculine pursuits with less social stigma. By being able to freely live in ways that "feel" right to the person, less dissonance occurs and thus the need to discover one's transness is delayed or even negated. The dysphoria may never reach a point where it drives the person to transition in any way, they just do "guy stuff" and continue with their birth name and assigned gender, thus being uncounted. This is actually different from the kind of life aforementioned where the person does transition, but passes and remains uncounted.
That's the stuff I've run across in conversation and reading over the years. First in trying to understand the trans experience better, to internalize it so I could better empathize. Then out of personal curiosity about the medical side of things, which ties into the sociological and psychological factors. I can't be arsed to go link digging though, as my initial disclaimer said, so if you quote any of this, be aware of that.
Yeah, I have a trans son, and he had to literally come out to me, because my conception of womanhood is so broad that simply dressing like a fashion-averse 40 year old lesbian did not even register with me as anything boyish. I have other kids (when you have a lot of them you are more likely to get some of everything) who are gay so I just figured he was a butch girl.
Very good point. A HUGE underlying current of transphobia is misogyny. Historically women are the scapegoat class. The idea that a lowly woman would want to be a man only seems natural in this scenario. Little girls are encouraged to do “boy things” while little boys are often discouraged, disciplined or even outright abused for doing “girl things”. There’s a strict enforcement of male centric norms being superior so women do have more “freedom” to explore that realm as where men are ostracized at the slightest indication of femininity because it’s inherently “below” his assigned station - that’s why transphobes need to obsess over genitals, it’s critical for them to enforce this sharp misogynistic divide, man good, woman bad there for woman aspiring to masculinity good, man aspiring to femininity bad and disgusting. Strict enforcement of gender roles is both misogynistic and transphobic.
I wonder, if neurodiversity plays any role. As far as I know, autistic people have been reported to have a higher percentage of difference in gender presentation, and the number of autistic amab have traditionally been higher. Though maybe that is now changing, as the diagnostic criteria has started to shift towards recognizing the traits more commonly showing in afab people... I have not read any recent studies about it, though.
Its tricky to say when it comes to that. How do you tell if neurodiversity results in more likely to be trans vs neurodivergent people are more likely to break the taboo and are more likely to come out vs remain closeted? (Which is a feasible thought if there is actually a meaningful disparity and the way that autism can present in childhood?).
Either way its a really dangerous subject because it already gets vastly misused to claim that gender affiming care is abuse of ND (mainly autistic) people - simultaneously removing their own agency and treating them as simpletons who don't know what they are as well as indicating that trans people don't really exist because its all some kind of delusion from being autistic.
The more interesting statistic I saw was prevelance of gender diverse people with EDS - up to 17% (https://www.eds.clinic/articles/transgender-and-non-binary-identities-in-eds-community) but could actually in theory skew numbers towards more trans men... Its all a bit wooly unfortunately.