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Unfortunately, it could happen.
Most of the country is dealing with a 30% to 50% cost of living increase, and they're going to blame Biden for it. Trump got elected the first time because 6,000,000 were foreclosed upon when Obama was president.
It's possible, but as much as people are exhausted with Biden, nothing would get blue to turn out to vote like another chance of Trump. Blue would vote for a tent full of mosquitoes if it meant voting against Trump. Trump supporters have gotten more fanatical, not more numerous. Some of my own family members are currently in orange pill recovery. Not to mention all the Reds that died of COVID denial. Then you factor in young people now eligible to vote skewing blue. The only person I think Trump could beat honestly would be Hillary. Red would show up to vote against her if not for Trump.
That was the argument people made for Hillary's certain victory on Election Day, that the notion of Trump being elected would mean a huge Democratic turnout.
Thing is, people aren't going to give a shit who the candidate of change is when they can't afford their grocery bills, and Trump isn't going to have to lie about how little Biden has done to alleviate people's poverty.
I'm not saying it won't be close. My parents who voted for him complain about how often they get asked to donate to his campaign slash legal fund. I don't think that's a great look if it's about grocery money.
I remember 2016. Bernie bros felt maybe rightfully so that he got shafted in the primary. Many didn't turn out. Trump as obvious of a con man as he was to us, was a successful business man to many centrist voters. I think that illusion has mostly faded. On top of that people on the right were programmed to hate Hillary since the 90s. The vitriol for Trump now is the best shot Biden has, and I think it's enough.