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this post was submitted on 17 May 2026
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amusingly also using trucks as mobile platforms
Such vehicles are highly conspicuous; the AFU uses civilian vehicles to maneuver.
Look—these are new AFU drones manufactured in Europe; judging by the build quality, these weren't cobbled together by amateurs in a garage.
https://youtu.be/wpwvcvVun18
probably Europeans buying from the US and reselling https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/use-of-lucas-drones-in-iran-puts-focus-on-affordable-fast-moving-acquisition/
Oh, I forgot to mention: a friend of mine has a son living in Kyiv, and the latest nighttime raid made a huge impression on him—even more so than his very first night in the city.
Now, on top of that, there’s been a strike on St. Petersburg... It’s terrifying to think what might happen next.
It seems to me that civilians here are going to suffer far more now. These new strikes will impact the civilian population much more heavily.
It gets pretty loud here at night, too... and during the day. Every now and then, through my open window, I hear the buzzing of drones in the distance—and the sound of fire being directed at them.
Unfortunately, I also expect there's going to be a lot more impact on civilians now. Also, with the talk of Budanov replacing Syrskyi it seems like the plan is to transition to doing terrorism instead of conventional warfare. Budanov has no experience commanding anything, but he specializes in special forces and working behind enemy lines. So, if he is put in charge it's clear what the focus is going to be going forward. Also notable is that it appears to be American decision. Blumenthal came to talk to Zelensky, and seems like this came as a directive from the US.
Yes, this is definitely a new round of escalation.
I just recently mentioned this "sweet couple"—read what they're up to. Their rhetoric also tells you how serious this really is.
Look at them... two Orthodox elders, preparing to perform a mass ritual sacrifice.
https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/6/3/686479/
Yes, Trump also had a plan on the table to nuke Iran, but he didn't go through with it. But Russia's situation is more complicated; after defeat, Russia might not exist.
I'm looking at how this Malofeev got rich. It turns out he's doing the same thing my brother-in-law does in M&A.
My God, how awful, it's not hard to imagine what's going on in that idiot's head.
He's absolutely certain that God helped him earn billions. That's 100%! Medieval obscurantism!! He's convinced he's chosen by God.
In the army, they call Syrsky General 200. A friend of mine came to see me recently; someone he knew had been busified and ended up in the "Skelya" unit. He told him some horrific stories. The core of this unit is made up of former prisoners. There's a culture of abuse there. The criminals abuse the busified. That guy told me they're sending them to slaughter. There was a case where they sent 30 people who had been busified, told them to check something and come back... It's very simple. The column was torn to pieces in 15 minutes. Only one man remained, who hid among the corpses for 24 hours to avoid being finished off. Only one man survived... Syrsky personally oversees this "Skelya."
Yes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' tactics have changed recently. The emphasis is solely on deep strikes and stagnation at the front.
For now, Ukraine's offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector has stalled, while the Russians are advancing very slowly, as before.
But the situation at the front has somehow faded into the background.
You've seen that the Americans have again started blaming Putin for his reluctance to make peace. Also, the 400 million package that was previously allocated to Ukraine and frozen is now being transferred to Ukraine from the US.
We've also seen the US change its position. I think this is related to Trump's visit to China.
It's always concerning when you get religious nuts close to the levers of power.
And yeah, the whole busification thing is basically to create single use units. They basically get thrown at the artillery in attempts to take some ground, and they're not expected to survive. I've always been amazed how freely the regime wastes people given the demographics problems.
I told you trip to China didn't go well. They also just published this https://www.state.gov/pax-silica
But, I can't overstate just how fucked Americans are here. China produces both rare earths and silica needed to make chips. They have a monopoly and cannot be replaced. So, there's no trick Americans can pull out of their hat here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKUkgjNaMDE
Hello, Comrade!
It was very loud last night. The drones were buzzing for a very long time.
The entire ring road is blocked off with nets; there's a battle for the logistics arteries. The Ukrainians, just like before, are delivering painful blows every night into Crimea and deeper into Russia. You've probably heard that Crimea is currently experiencing serious fuel shortages. The resort season is being disrupted. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are methodically destroying gas stations on key roads.
Regarding the front line, the Russians broke through at Kostantynivka. The Ukrainians were planning to advance on Kursk or Bryansk again to divert attention from key areas of the front, like last time. They use this tactic when they start having problems at the front.
This breakthrough to Kostantynivka has probably thwarted their plans, because they'll have to redeploy reserves to Kostantynivka.
It feels like the Russians have somehow managed to eliminate the Ukrainians' drone parity. I could be wrong, of course, but we'll see. Kostiantynivka was taken very quickly. This city, if I'm not mistaken, is larger than Pokrovsk. We'll see if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can stabilize the front in this direction.
But still, this doesn't mean anything yet. You've probably heard that Abramovich came to Kyiv. This suggests that Putin isn't interested in continuing the war. And that says a lot. Abramovich is Putin's behind-the-scenes liaison with the West. Because Abramovich lives in London and maintains good relations with everyone. Abramovich was also present at the negotiations in Istanbul. His old business partner, Arakhamia, was also present in Istanbul, but on behalf of Ukraine.
Trump has completely disappeared into oblivion. No one listens to him anymore, neither Europe nor Zelensky. Now they're playing their own game, judging by Zelensky's last visit to Britain, where they looked very pleased, judging by their faces. Zelensky looks more cheerful and upbeat than ever. And Trump's days, in my opinion, are numbered. He won't pull through.
Putin actually addressed that in SPIEF, and he rejected any proposals. It could be Abramovich went there to give an ultimatum. It's very clear to me that Russia isn't going to compromise and isn't looking to end the war right now. I think we might be approaching the end game. The US is fucked in Iran, the war just restarted again, and the US economy is on the brink because they're running out of the reserve and won't be able to stabilize gas prices for long now. Europe is collapsing as well, and nobody in the west cares about Ukraine at this point. It's barely even mentioned in the news here now. It's over.
Zelenskyy wrote a letter to Putin following a meeting with Abramovich. Putin responded to that letter with a refusal—one that was rude and boorish, accompanied by blackmail and threats. It was impossible to respond to that letter in any other way.
The fact is that during his visit to Kyiv, Abramovich met with Arakhamia—whom I mentioned earlier; Arakhamia is a business partner of Abramovich. Abramovich arranged a private conversation between Putin and Arakhamia. Mind you, not with Zelenskyy, but with Arakhamia! No one knows what they discussed, but Zelenskyy soon found out about it; it was only after learning this that he wrote an open letter to Putin—effectively burning all bridges. Arakhamia is the head of "Servant of the People," Zelenskyy's party.
On one hand, we are witnessing a certain internal political rift in Ukraine, which could eventually lead to an escalation of the domestic power struggle. On the other hand, the situation is not quite so simple; the fact that Putin deigned to speak with a secondary figure reflects poorly on him. Peace benefits figures like Arakhamia or Budanov, as one of them could become the future president—a president considered legitimate by Russia, provided they agree to Putin's terms (which would be more lenient than the Istanbul agreements).
While the situation on the ground has currently stabilized for the Russians, the blockade of Crimea and strikes deep within Russian territory are fueling growing discontent within Russian society—among both the elites and the general public. After all, most of the factories being hit belong to Russian oligarchs, and they are suffering colossal losses from the war every day.
Every night, hundreds of Ukrainian drones inflict real damage on the Russian economy. Last night, sirens sounded in several Russian regions for the first time since the war began. The geographical scope of the strikes is gradually expanding. Recently, there has also been widespread use of "Flamingo" missiles, which have a range of thousands of kilometers. The strikes have become combined operations. Russia cannot inflict equivalent damage in return because all major industrial and energy sector facilities have already been bombed repeatedly since the start of the war. What would truly make an impact is the destruction of the bridges across the Dnieper. Furthermore, the Russians are currently systematically dismantling the port of Odesa with their strikes. Yesterday, Ukraine struck the Sevastopol State Museum, a symbol of the city. We see Zelenskyy escalating the situation more and more. This implies that retaliatory strikes on Kyiv or the bridges work to his advantage; the greater the destruction, the more money flows in from Europe. And don't overlook nuances such as the fact that India is the largest supplier of diesel to Ukraine—fuel refined in India from Russian oil. Similarly, Romania and Hungary supply gas to Ukraine that they themselves receive from Russia. Ukraine's energy system has been fragmented into small, isolated segments; when a single facility is hit, it can be repaired very quickly. I believe that, under these circumstances, Ukraine will hold out at least until the autumn cold sets in. This is evident in Zelenskyy’s recent smug and brazen demeanor. He weathered the crisis surrounding the Mindich tapes and shifted his war strategy, yielding results. The current situation resembles World War I, with the key difference being that Germany did not possess nuclear weapons back then. Had uprisings not broken out in Germany at that time, they likely would have erupted in France shortly thereafter. We do not know for certain the extent of Russia's resilience compared to that of the united West. The question is who can suppress mass unrest—which will sooner or later erupt—for the longest time and most effectively. We are leaving Ukraine out of the equation; Zelensky and the united West have the Ukrainian people in a tight stranglehold.
As for Russia, it faces daily strikes, the intensity of which—at the very least—will not diminish...
Whether the Russians can turn the tide on the front line on a large scale remains a major question at this moment.
You can see that my view of the situation differs somewhat from yours.
I wonder what would happen if Trump were impeached right now and a new president took office? How would they handle the Iran issue? Say, if the Democrats came to power, for instance.
It seems to me that the easiest thing to do is just blame everything on Trump and bow out.
Yes, I think Iran has a much better chance of decisively defeating the US than Russia does. Iran has a clear stance, whereas Russia constantly wavers. At times, Putin resembles Trump with his "red lines" and loud rhetoric. This is because Zelenskyy has adopted the Iranian strategy of warfare, where—despite the enemy's overwhelming superiority in weaponry and resources—one can still deal them very painful blows. There is currently no effective countermeasure against this type of strategy. The strikes target the economy for the most part, rather than military installations.
Yes, if Trump fails to stop the war, something bad might well start happening by autumn—both in Europe and in the US...
However, I don't think this will affect the war in Ukraine in the short term. Although rumors are circulating here that the war will end in the autumn—I haven't found the original source for this, but I'm hearing it from various quarters. We shall see.
I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn't between Russia and Ukraine, it's between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I've said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China's western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China's Ukraine. Therefore, it's obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There's no two ways about it.
Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia? Again, the answer is obvious, China being the industrial superpower, is in a far better position to support Russia materially than the US is to support Europe. In fact, the US itself is largely dependent on Chinese imports to function. And China cutting off critical things like rare earths is already affecting military production in America.
So, given all that, there's only one way this war can go. You can look at all the palace intrigue, and the drones, and all the media about attacks on Russia, but what I explain above is the underlying hard reality of the situation. Everything else is just surface noise. If Russia loses then China is fucked, and given that China is the strongest player here that just will not happen.
And I don't see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.
I can't see how anything changes in a major way in Ukraine before autumn, but once the global energy shock hits, that's when things are going to start moving fast. Right now, the US and other countries are frantically dumping their oil reserves on the market to depress the prices, but those are going to run out very soon. After that there's just not going to be enough oil to go around.
To you, Russia’s defeat means Russia’s capitulation—something that is hardly likely. Yes, you’re right.
For me, Russia’s defeat means having Nazis left in my city.
Yes, you are absolutely right: China won’t allow Russia to be defeated, but it has no need for a strong Russia, either.
Freezing the conflict would be quite acceptable to China. It is also not in China’s interest for the West to lift sanctions on Russia; that is a fact.
And another fact is that China is profiting handsomely from this war. It sells dual-use goods to both sides of the conflict.
Yes, I agree that China acts solely in its own interests... its GDP is skyrocketing. China is prospering—that is indisputable.
Yes, if it wanted to, China could help Russia win. But let me repeat: if it wanted to!
You can see that the US and Europe have essentially gone all-in right now; they are stretched to their limits—especially considering the war in Iraq. Meanwhile, China is taking it easy. Confucianism advocates for victory without a fight. That’s certainly wise.
I’d like that too—sitting on the couch with popcorn, watching a brutal slaughter, and winning in the process. That’s not something I know how to do; I guess you have to be really smart for that... )))
If I’d made smart moves like that in my life, I swear to you, I’d be a millionaire by now! There was a time when I could have climbed the ladder of success by stepping right over the heads of my loved ones and partners. I could have shortchanged my workers while raking in huge profits. I thought that was the right way to do things—that somewhere up in heaven, it would be duly recognized... what a naive fool I was!
But when I suddenly found myself cast aside by life, I had an epiphany. First, I stopped going to church because I realized it only "helps" the rich and successful. Second, I realized that in the capitalist world, you won't get anywhere if you’re honest, open, and decent—you simply won't survive. That’s a dogma, Comrade! A Biblical one, at that. ))))
The capitalist world is a three-headed serpent; the names of those heads are cunning, meanness, and betrayal!
Yes, I fully agree—however cynical it may sound—that Russia was lucky in this regard.
In southern Russia, especially in Crimea, people are facing major fuel shortages. I agree with you that this won't be fatal for the situation at the front, but for the people, it’s a huge problem.
Listen to this guy—he’s Russian; I’ve marked the spot. Just keep in mind that he might be downplaying the issue, since he’s a Komsomolskaya Pravda correspondent.
https://youtu.be/hGi66DHc5TI?t=309
He’s a war correspondent of this caliber:
https://youtu.be/UoEqtyhCf-g?t=185
I don't think Russia can stay stable if the conflict is frozen though. That's just not gonna fly politically, and political instability creates a risk for China in the long term. You gotta keep in mind that Chinese tend to have a very long perspective on things, and they're not looking for quick wins. They know the west is coming after them next, and they understand perfectly well that the war is bigger than Russia and Ukraine. If they don't defeat the west here, then the west gets a chance to regroup and try again. This is the same danger Russia and China face here together. And when Russia wins, it's till going to be highly dependent on China economically which means China will continue to exercise a ton of influence over Russia. On top of that, Chinese will probably get a ton of reconstruction and resource development contracts in Ukraine. All of that cannot happen if there's a frozen conflict. So, there's simply way more to gain by winning than letting this fester.
Letting the war drag out to drain the west certainly does seem to be what China is doing. I think they're aiming for a comprehensive victory here where the west becomes so depleted that they have to accept a new world order. You say they're supplying both sides, but here's what's actually happening https://www.mining.com/web/us-business-group-says-some-critical-minerals-are-nearly-unobtainable-from-china/
China cut the west off from critical inputs they need to produce weapons. So, now the west isn't able to restock what they've spent over 4 years in Ukraine and now in Iran. The inventories here keep going down, and there's nothing the west can do about it lacking its own industries.
And this is what I was saying about Bunaov being shuffled to the head of the army. The strategy is shifting towards naked terrorism now.
There are various possible scenarios. In one of them, Russia wins, and relations with Europe—along with the Nord Stream pipelines—are restored. This scenario is not in China's interest.
A moderate victory—that’s optimal for China.
I would really like it to be that way!
At the moment, Syrsky is handling his duties reasonably well; he is doing everything he can, regardless of the cost in casualties. So far, however, there have been no major breakthroughs. Besides, one has to hold the front line, not just wage a campaign of terror.
I really can't see how relations with Europe could be restored at this point. There would have to be a revolution in Europe before that happens.
And I'm just going by what Zelensky said when Blumenthal visited. They openly stated that they're going to be shuffling Syrsky out by fall, and it's clear the directive is coming from the US. It could be that Americans are hoping to transition to something like Chechnya soon.
Yes, I agree; the EU looks relatively united right now. Trump has backed down, the global fuel crisis has been averted, and while there will be complications, they won't be critical—unless Bibi sticks his long nose in again. Because, it seems to me, if the war ends, Netanyahu will be ousted. For him, just as for Zelensky, the end of the war spells political death.
And Trump has finally realized he can't break Iran.
Trump is shifting his focus back to Ukraine. That "dynamic duo" will be heading to Moscow again.
I don't get it—isn't Putin tired of this? Flirting with Trump again, sending warm birthday wishes... The circus act is starting all over again. After his setback with Iran, Trump needs to do something before autumn: either secure peace in Ukraine, attack Cuba, or something similar. I think he’s lost his appetite for war after that last incident, so he’ll opt for "peace" in Ukraine. What leverage he’ll use this time, though, is unclear to me.
The G7 summit is taking place today, and—as always—Ukraine has crossed yet another red line. There was a massive strike on Moscow. This is bound to happen regularly from now on; things will only escalate.
Yes, given the unfavorable situation at the front, Ukraine has little choice but to resort to deep-strike attacks and terrorism as a countermeasure. However, this is unlikely to affect the actual frontline; it is aimed at the civilian population to sow fear and create hardships—financial and otherwise. That said, I believe Russia has been preparing for this since winter, back when the blocking of social media platforms began.
I suspect Putin won't make any rash moves right now; he has made it clear that he is banking on developments on the ground—at the front. We shall see; perhaps he knows something more.
If we’re talking about Chechnya, it probably would have been better to make Budanov president and install a military government.
By the way, there has been a noticeable rise in public opposition to the TCK [military recruitment offices] recently. Something will have to be done about this in the foreseeable future, too. Incidents of mobs beating up TCK officers have become more frequent. I’m not saying this will necessarily lead to an uprising anytime soon, though. It’s just that TCK officers feel very uncomfortable in the city because everyone hates them—both Western and Eastern Ukrainians. It turns out that a common enemy unites both the "Banderites" and the Russian-speaking population of southeastern Ukraine. You can see it all on social media here. There is growing hatred directed at both Zelensky and the TCK. Even those who want Ukraine to win have come to hate Zelensky and the TCK. It’s like a parallel reality here. Everyone here—the ones with "pots on their heads"
https://youtu.be/H2Pratb_TNw?t=52
—seems to have developed bipolar disorder.
I used to say that being American isn't a nationality, but a diagnosis—back when I listened to American politicians or watched CNN. It was nothing but contradictions. Now I see the same thing happening with Ukrainians. I’ve now fully realized from personal experience what American propaganda is all about.
If you dig deeper, it’s not even just American propaganda; it’s Goebbels-style propaganda—the kind that turns people not only into schizophrenics but also into cruel, ruthless individuals.
I don't think the crisis has been averted. It's going to take a long time before energy prices get back to normal because restarting production can't happen overnight. Just clearing the backlog of tankers in the gulf is going to take over a year. I also don't see Israel stopping attacking Lebanon which means the fighting is likely to restart soon.
Trump wants to get out desperately, but he has no way out because Israel won't play along. From Russian perspective it makes sense to play along though because it drives Europeans up the wall. And I don't see what leverage he has left either.
And completely agree that strikes just serve to remind people in Russia why the war is necessary. The overall situation on the front won't change, but it will help with firming up public support to remove the threat.
It does look like Russia is ramping up deep strikes on infrastructure especially now that the US ran out of patriots during their Iran fiasco. I think this will be significant over time, and affect logistics going forward which will accelerate the events on the front.
I saw a video just yesterday of some kid beating up TCK cause they took his dad. Yes, public is definitely starting to turn on them.
And American style propaganda does in fact have its origins with Goebbels, I might've sent this before. It explains everything very clearly. https://royallib.com/read/artemov_vladimir/psihologicheskaya_voyna_v_strategii_imperializma.html#0
So far, Lucas has not been spotted in Ukraine.