Socialism

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 3 months ago (11 children)

I don't think anybody takes what Trump says seriously at this point. He'll say one thing than another, it literally changes day to day. What matters is that the US is exhausted now. They just lost a major war against Iran, their weapons stocks are depleted, and China has them by the balls. So, Trump is doing a bit of posturing right now, but it's not going to translate into anything material because the coffers are empty.

And I can't see Russia taking out the bridges because it's almost certain they plan to use them. The goal of the Europeans is to provoke a big reaction right now so they can rally their public. The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they're trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

Artemov explains everything correctly, and reading his book really helped me see how American propaganda machine works a lot more clearly. The direct inspiration from the nazis and the evolution of the narrative was very interesting to read about as well.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 3 months ago (10 children)

I don’t think anybody takes what Trump says seriously at this point. He’ll say one thing than another, it literally changes day to day. What matters is that the US is exhausted now. They just lost a major war against Iran, their weapons stocks are depleted, and China has them by the balls. So, Trump is doing a bit of posturing right now, but it’s not going to translate into anything material because the coffers are empty.

As we expected, Bibi won't allow the war to end, as that would mean the end of his career. Negotiations have broken down.

And I can’t see Russia taking out the bridges because it’s almost certain they plan to use them. The goal of the Europeans is to provoke a big reaction right now so they can rally their public. The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they’re trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

They started destroying bridges across the Dnieper in the south. Where supplies come from Romania.

They turned on our hot water. Just so you understand, before the war, we never had hot water in the summer. The last time we had hot water in the summer was under the USSR. I still don't understand how they do it. By the way, they bombed Thermal Power Plant 5 again yesterday, and the lights were flickering.

The support for the war is at all time low in Europe right now, so they’re trying to put pressure on Putin to do something big to start scaring people how Russians are coming for them.

Yes, there's a massive propaganda campaign on TV, along with strikes deep into Russia. Yes, it's putting pressure on ordinary people in Russia. This will continue for several more months.

By the way, let's get back to our long-suffering sheep.

A Chinese proposal for interceptor drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has leaked online. These aren't even dual-use items anymore. And you're saying someone's going to run out of something...)))) If it all goes wrong, the Chinese will help...)))))

This infuriates me so much, Comrade!

China is so mired in this capitalist shambles, where profit is king, that it's disgusting to watch.

And China won't sever relations with the US, just as the US won't sever relations with China. Too much is tied to it, involving enormous mutual risks.

The US is imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. No, China isn't offended by stopping supplying these goods; China is circumventing the sanctions by reselling the goods to the US through Mexico.

Artemov explains everything correctly, and reading his book really helped me see how American propaganda machine works a lot more clearly. The direct inspiration from the nazis and the evolution of the narrative was very interesting to read about as well.

This vile lie was exposed back in the USSR. Then the USSR collapsed, and we were forced to believe this nonsense again!!!

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 3 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (9 children)

They started destroying bridges across the Dnieper in the south. Where supplies come from Romania.

Amazed it took them this long to finally start cutting supply lines from Europe.

oh and here's how relations between China and the west are actually like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVOS6RVr6H0

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 3 months ago (8 children)

oh and here’s how relations between China and the west are actually like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVOS6RVr6H0

At the beginning of the video, the situation in the US is similar to the current situation in Russia. There's also something going on with government bond rates and depositor confidence, only the numbers are different. All those forecasts can be projected onto Russia as well.

I also really liked that Ma was hit with US sanctions..)))

This can also be mirrored in Russia, where Russian oligarchs are hit with sanctions and are willing to do anything, even betrayal, to get the US to lift the sanctions. Oligarchs are saboteurs because their actions and intentions can run counter to state interests. Even if, as I've been told here, oligarchs in China have no influence over the state.

It's hard to imagine how much of his money Ma has taken out of China. He's essentially robbing the country.

Amazed it took them this long to finally start cutting supply lines from Europe.

No, I don't think it will be systemic.

For now, everyone is waiting to see what Russia will do. There's a strange silence.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 3 months ago (7 children)

Seems like what Russia is going to do is take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk at which point they will control all of Donbas and there's going to be a big panic in the west. I personally agree with the analysis here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xgcv0PiLJTY

Basically, Russia is winning and right now situation is under control. Any type of escalation will introduce uncertainty, so there is little point to gamble by doing that.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 3 months ago (6 children)

Seems like what Russia is going to do is take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk

It would be a major success for Russia if it could capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of the year.

But that is not the whole of Donbas.

For the most part, everything depends on how Russia handles strikes deep within its own territory.

Last night, Ukraine launched an attack involving more than 600 drones.

Russia is currently trying to push drone launch sites back beyond the Dnieper River. They are destroying gas stations and truck stops where drone launchers might potentially be located; on this side of the Dnieper, the Russians have already destroyed 160 gas stations. So far, there are no fuel shortages in our city.

In Russia—even as far away as Siberia—there are massive, miles-long lines for gasoline.

As I said back in the spring, Russia needs a decisive push to turn the tide. Right now, things aren't going very well for Russia in that regard.

Russia is also currently losing the information war.

Basically, Russia is winning and right now situation is under control.

Not quite, Comrade. Right now, the situation at the front is mixed. The AFU is still conducting successful counter-offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Russia has lost the territory it had previously captured there.

Russia is seeing successes in other sectors as well, though the pace is not as dynamic. In some areas, the situation has been at a standstill for months.

You surely realize, Comrade, that Russia’s very slow rate of advance—combined with the fact that Ukraine can strike Moscow—is precisely what convinced Trump to drastically change his opinion.

No matter how weak the US might be, Russia is going to face a very difficult time in the coming months.

One more brief note: Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with Storm Shadow missiles for the first time—this set a precedent.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 3 points 3 months ago (1 child)

Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale. And that's what's happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.

Russia has been shit at information war since the very start. They never really cared about it. It's possibly a mistake, but that's just how it is.

And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.

I don't think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there's nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there's no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.

I do think we'll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we're coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he's the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn't been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don't have any new tricks to play here.

And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6a411d079a79474cc1ecfd21

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 3 months ago

Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale.

Yes, but as you realize, strikes deep inside Russia are dangerous primarily due to their impact on the media narrative, which undermines Russia's internal stability.

Did you see that a new Prigozhin has appeared recently? Peskov has already spoken about him. He is threatening Putin, just like Prigozhin did. This means the Russian elites have now gotten involved—exactly what we discussed earlier.

However, it seems to me that the situation inside Russia remains stable for now. Everything is still under control.

And that’s what’s happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.

Drones are buzzing constantly; yesterday they bombed a gas station where I used to fill up often. That’s what I heard.

For now, though, there are no shortages or panic buying of gasoline in the city. But the situation is worsening; Russia has changed its attack tactics. There have been up to two hundred drones a day—no more than that—for the past two weeks.

And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.

No, Comrade, I’m arguing from the opposite perspective—or rather, trying to strike a middle ground.

After all, the propaganda claims Russia is losing; I’ve never said that. Russia won’t lose, but it might not win.

It wouldn't have won anyway if the Anchorage agreements had been implemented! And those agreements looked nothing like a victory! They looked more like a disgrace.

That’s the premise I’m working from, not the propaganda.

In essence, I’m saying the same thing Putin is saying,

...except that, unlike Putin, I don’t have that rock-solid confidence that things will end well for me. Do you understand? For me! I couldn't care less if they celebrate an imaginary victory back in Russia—not if I’m still stuck in this "prison"!

By my count, this is already the fourth "difficult phase." They somehow overcame the first three—the "gesture of goodwill" near Kyiv, the retreat from Kherson, Prigozhin’s mutiny... and now, the strikes on oil refineries and Moscow.

Each of these "difficult phases" narrowed the scope of the Special Military Operation; eventually, it all shrank down to the size of the Donbas...

It’s as if time has dragged us back to square one.

I don’t think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there’s nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there’s no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.

The situation is a bit different now. Ukrainians have advanced and dug in at two locations; they’ve been building up their forces there for several weeks. The Russians can't dislodge them...

Wow... that was loud—those are guided aerial bombs; they fly in pairs. I'll find out later what exactly it was.

Anyway, back to the point.

Right now—let me repeat—right now, neither side has an overwhelming advantage!

I do think we’ll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we’re coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he’s the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn’t been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don’t have any new tricks to play here.

Also, how do I turn off this fucking Starlink!

And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.

At the moment, I don't see any signs pointing to that—though, of course, I could be wrong.

A strike would have to begin with a demonstrative nuclear test in an uninhabited area, followed by a broadcast to the entire world as a warning. Only then would the actual strike follow. Putin won't even commit to a demonstration. China might not like the idea.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 3 points 3 months ago (1 child)

Oh just can't continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can't reply below this reply anymore. :)

And yes, it's not a given that it will happen, but we are very much moving towards that becoming a real possibility. The reality is that Russia needs to restore deterrent, and doing nothing will only mean continued escalation on the part of the west because there are no consequences.

There is of course a second view here which is that European economies are imploding, and it's possible that regime changes might actually start happening in major European countries. The winter isn't just going to be bad for Ukraine, it's going to be very bad for Europe too. European gas storage is already tapped out, and there's no way to refill thanks to the war on Iran that's ongoing. https://energynewsbeat.co/international-news/europe-is-at-its-lowest-gas-storage-in-15-years

A political crisis in Germany, France, or UK is extremely likely at this point. So, Russia simply absorbing the current escalations may be a rational strategy. Doing something like strikes in Europe could be counterproductive if Russia expects Europe to collapse politically and economically in the near future.

Meanwhile, the whole Anchorage thing has a second dimension to it which is creating a lot of tension within NATO. The war isn't really about Ukraine in the end, and if Russia thought they could peel the US off from Europe then it was worth pursuing that. Ukraine is just a proxy here the west is using, but the real problem is with NATO itself.

https://lemmy.ml/post/47650869

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 3 months ago

Hi, Comrade!

I haven't written in a long time—I've been struggling with depression.

The news is more positive this time. You know that I mostly rely on intuition when picking up on shifts in online sentiment.

I think Russia will weather the gasoline shortages. There has been a significant breakthrough—significant given the realities of modern warfare—by the AFU near Vovchansk. Here in the city, gas stations are getting hit every day. The mayor appeared on TV yesterday—I hadn't seen him in ages—complaining about it. But so far, we haven't had any gasoline shortages.

Oh just can’t continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can’t reply below this reply anymore. :)

Comrade, can we post our conversations in the section you created?

Is that section open to everyone? I’d like it to be—I want to meet interesting new people here.

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[–] yogthos@lemmy.ml [S] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

we reached max comment depth for the thread :)

I don't think these strikes undermine Russia's internal stability in any meaningful way. What they do is harden the opinion that Putin is not pursuing the war hard enough, and that there needs to be direct retaliation against Europe. At this point, I think it's a very likely scenario to unfold in the next few months if things keep going the way they are. They already named the factories in Europe, so we know what the targets will be.

I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting. First, they'll do a conventional strike with an Oreshnik, and if Europe doesn't get the message, it'll be a tactical nuclear strike next as a demonstration.

And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don't see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.

And AFU can dig in, but this has always worked out the same way. I see no reason to expect anything different this time, especially given how the manpower shortage is only getting worse.

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[–] Sedan@lemmy.ml 1 point 3 months ago

we reached max comment depth for the thread :)

What should we do now?

Do we need to go to the section you created for me and our Chinese colleague?

I don’t think these strikes undermine Russia’s internal stability in any meaningful way.

From what I can see right now, Russia is holding up for the time being. But don't forget, winter is coming; it’s going to be cold for both Ukraine and Russia—or at least parts of Russia. It’s a good thing winters in Crimea aren't that cold.

One thing is certain: we’re going to be totally screwed this winter. I was planning to throw out some old furniture, but now I won't—it’ll serve as firewood for the winter.

I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting.

Look, Сomrade, get this straight: you’re essentially listening to someone on the level of Medvedev—not even Peskov, who at least knows how to choose his words carefully.

This is an advisor to Putin.

Desire alone isn't enough; you need political will—something Russia is, to put it mildly, rather short on. There are so many internal contradictions within the country.

"I think we are all concerned about the same thing. I don't think there is a single person in this country whose primary concern is anything other than the speedy cessation of hostilities; that goes without saying."

— Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, July 1 (yesterday).

Ending the war and achieving victory are two different things. And you realize this isn't just some blogger panicking—it's the head of the state-owned bank.

Besides, China would 100% not support a nuclear strike.

Right now, that could only happen in the event of aggression from Ukraine; that is precisely why Lukashenko went to "pay his respects" to Xi.

They were coordinating potential scenarios. Lukashenko told Xi: "If Ukraine makes a move, I’ll hit them with nukes—Vova is fine with it." Xi tacitly agreed. We can see this in how Lukashenko has suddenly grown bolder.

The Anglo-Saxons took a look at that... thought it over... and decided it was best not to go there!

And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don’t see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.

This is a major problem for Russia right now. They don't even know what to do themselves.

If Russia were absolutely confident in itself, it wouldn't have spent a year parroting the "Spirit of Anchorage" line; it would have simply taken action—silently!

People in Russia are already laughing at this "Spirit of Anchorage" notion—even the panic-mongering bloggers! They are demanding political will from the state to at least take out the bridges across the Dnieper—before things escalate to a nuclear strike, как до Киева раком!

They’re just bridges. Instead of destroying them completely, you could just punch holes in them—patching the holes takes only a week, so the bridges aren't totally wrecked. That’s what one of the panic-stricken bloggers suggested to Belousov.

If you tell me Putin knows what he’s doing, I’ll reply: the escalation has already reached the nuclear level. You could argue that that’s exactly what Putin knows! Yet a couple of years ago, this could have been resolved with the snap of a finger! You remember the time when the West was afraid to supply heavy weaponry, right? That was the moment to act!!!