Hi, Comrade!

I haven't written in a long time—I've been struggling with depression.

The news is more positive this time. You know that I mostly rely on intuition when picking up on shifts in online sentiment.

I think Russia will weather the gasoline shortages. There has been a significant breakthrough—significant given the realities of modern warfare—by the AFU near Vovchansk. Here in the city, gas stations are getting hit every day. The mayor appeared on TV yesterday—I hadn't seen him in ages—complaining about it. But so far, we haven't had any gasoline shortages.

Oh just can’t continue down the thread, might have to start a new one. I basically can’t reply below this reply anymore. :)

Comrade, can we post our conversations in the section you created?

https://lemmy.ml/post/47650869

Is that section open to everyone? I’d like it to be—I want to meet interesting new people here.

Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale.

Yes, but as you realize, strikes deep inside Russia are dangerous primarily due to their impact on the media narrative, which undermines Russia's internal stability.

Did you see that a new Prigozhin has appeared recently? Peskov has already spoken about him. He is threatening Putin, just like Prigozhin did. This means the Russian elites have now gotten involved—exactly what we discussed earlier.

However, it seems to me that the situation inside Russia remains stable for now. Everything is still under control.

And that’s what’s happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.

Drones are buzzing constantly; yesterday they bombed a gas station where I used to fill up often. That’s what I heard.

For now, though, there are no shortages or panic buying of gasoline in the city. But the situation is worsening; Russia has changed its attack tactics. There have been up to two hundred drones a day—no more than that—for the past two weeks.

And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.

No, Comrade, I’m arguing from the opposite perspective—or rather, trying to strike a middle ground.

After all, the propaganda claims Russia is losing; I’ve never said that. Russia won’t lose, but it might not win.

It wouldn't have won anyway if the Anchorage agreements had been implemented! And those agreements looked nothing like a victory! They looked more like a disgrace.

That’s the premise I’m working from, not the propaganda.

In essence, I’m saying the same thing Putin is saying,

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6a411d079a79474cc1ecfd21

...except that, unlike Putin, I don’t have that rock-solid confidence that things will end well for me. Do you understand? For me! I couldn't care less if they celebrate an imaginary victory back in Russia—not if I’m still stuck in this "prison"!

By my count, this is already the fourth "difficult phase." They somehow overcame the first three—the "gesture of goodwill" near Kyiv, the retreat from Kherson, Prigozhin’s mutiny... and now, the strikes on oil refineries and Moscow.

Each of these "difficult phases" narrowed the scope of the Special Military Operation; eventually, it all shrank down to the size of the Donbas...

It’s as if time has dragged us back to square one.

I don’t think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there’s nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there’s no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.

The situation is a bit different now. Ukrainians have advanced and dug in at two locations; they’ve been building up their forces there for several weeks. The Russians can't dislodge them...

Wow... that was loud—those are guided aerial bombs; they fly in pairs. I'll find out later what exactly it was.

Anyway, back to the point.

Right now—let me repeat—right now, neither side has an overwhelming advantage!

I do think we’ll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we’re coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he’s the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn’t been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don’t have any new tricks to play here.

Also, how do I turn off this fucking Starlink!

And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.

At the moment, I don't see any signs pointing to that—though, of course, I could be wrong.

A strike would have to begin with a demonstrative nuclear test in an uninhabited area, followed by a broadcast to the entire world as a warning. Only then would the actual strike follow. Putin won't even commit to a demonstration. China might not like the idea.

we reached max comment depth for the thread :)

What should we do now?

Do we need to go to the section you created for me and our Chinese colleague?

I don’t think these strikes undermine Russia’s internal stability in any meaningful way.

From what I can see right now, Russia is holding up for the time being. But don't forget, winter is coming; it’s going to be cold for both Ukraine and Russia—or at least parts of Russia. It’s a good thing winters in Crimea aren't that cold.

One thing is certain: we’re going to be totally screwed this winter. I was planning to throw out some old furniture, but now I won't—it’ll serve as firewood for the winter.

I expect it will be done exactly as Karaganov is suggesting.

Look, Сomrade, get this straight: you’re essentially listening to someone on the level of Medvedev—not even Peskov, who at least knows how to choose his words carefully.

This is an advisor to Putin.

Desire alone isn't enough; you need political will—something Russia is, to put it mildly, rather short on. There are so many internal contradictions within the country.

"I think we are all concerned about the same thing. I don't think there is a single person in this country whose primary concern is anything other than the speedy cessation of hostilities; that goes without saying."

— Sberbank CEO Herman Gref, July 1 (yesterday).

Ending the war and achieving victory are two different things. And you realize this isn't just some blogger panicking—it's the head of the state-owned bank.

Besides, China would 100% not support a nuclear strike.

Right now, that could only happen in the event of aggression from Ukraine; that is precisely why Lukashenko went to "pay his respects" to Xi.

They were coordinating potential scenarios. Lukashenko told Xi: "If Ukraine makes a move, I’ll hit them with nukes—Vova is fine with it." Xi tacitly agreed. We can see this in how Lukashenko has suddenly grown bolder.

The Anglo-Saxons took a look at that... thought it over... and decided it was best not to go there!

And I just cannot imagine how the current regime in Ukraine survives this. That would basically be a return to status quo, and I don’t see how that would be palatable for Russia. Wherever Russia stops militarily, it is almost certain that there will be a compliant government in Ukraine afterwards.

This is a major problem for Russia right now. They don't even know what to do themselves.

If Russia were absolutely confident in itself, it wouldn't have spent a year parroting the "Spirit of Anchorage" line; it would have simply taken action—silently!

People in Russia are already laughing at this "Spirit of Anchorage" notion—even the panic-mongering bloggers! They are demanding political will from the state to at least take out the bridges across the Dnieper—before things escalate to a nuclear strike, как до Киева раком!

They’re just bridges. Instead of destroying them completely, you could just punch holes in them—patching the holes takes only a week, so the bridges aren't totally wrecked. That’s what one of the panic-stricken bloggers suggested to Belousov.

If you tell me Putin knows what he’s doing, I’ll reply: the escalation has already reached the nuclear level. You could argue that that’s exactly what Putin knows! Yet a couple of years ago, this could have been resolved with the snap of a finger! You remember the time when the West was afraid to supply heavy weaponry, right? That was the moment to act!!!