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this post was submitted on 29 May 2026
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I think a lot of it is a result of density and perceived population size. If you're used to seeing a lot of people around you in a small area, you're not going to have the same desire to make more, maybe because it feels close to carrying capacity, or just doesn't seem necessary.
Another factor is desire for uniqueness. The more people that are out there, the less certain you can be of having a special, meaningful life that's not just a rerun of everyone else's, and the more you feel like you're in competition with the rest of everyone.
And then there's just some people that don't particularly gravitate towards parenthood, and in today's age there isn't the same social pressure bending people to have kids against what their will would otherwise be. And fewer accidental pregnancies, and more to do with your own life than just replicate more lives.
All these factors point to a human population that will decrease maybe rather rapidly in the second half of the 21st century. And this will continue until we fix the problems and reach an equilibrium, or face whatever the alternative prospect holds.
Maybe this is fine actually? Why should the human population increase indefinitely? I think a healthy, well governed world society could work with 1, 2, 5 or 10 billion people alive, the only reason governments want more kids today is because the global market economy is a ponzi scheme that can't survive without an ever increasing pool of workers.