I'd like to believe too, but it doesn't really track when you watch what these companies are actually doing.

Of course an LLM on its own isn't going to become an AGI. Anyone with a braincell can see that. These orgs aren't so high on their own farts that they ignore this.

Nearly all of the actual uses today aren't just the LLM, but the tooling built on top of it, the LLM is the bit that you can plug into the past century of computing developments to enable much greater autonomy.

It's true to say an LLM in isolation isn't going to become AGI, but it's also looking very likely that an AGI will feature an LLM as a key component.

That's what's happening in parallel to the model development, tooling and harnesses that make the overall system more capable. If it can be done by a computer (or by extension a sufficiently advanced robot), the LLM can do it too with a bit of integration work (which it is very able to do on its own today, with minimal steering). If you can test for something being correct in any way, that too can be ultimately hooked up to an LLM as another input to push it back onto the desired path when it veers off.

Frankly I'm starting to feel like for most people it'll feel like it's years off until the day it happens. I don't see remotely enough people taking the risk seriously in time to do anything.