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this post was submitted on 24 May 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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I think the challenge is that the value of results of any kind of basic research are so wildly variable that normal rational economic thinking stops working. In Nassim Taleb terms you're actively seeking black swans in a world where everyone knows all swans are white. Sometimes you venture into the depths of the rainforest and come back with a revolutionary new medicine, but most of the time you're gonna have a few cool pictures of new bugs or something - not without value in the real sense, but hard to capitalize and transform into profit. Even if you end up discovering/creating an entirely new framework for understanding life itself that revolutionizes everything from agriculture to medicine to politics in the following century, that doesn't necessarily work in the specific context of economic rationality - who remembers the name of the guy(s?) who funded the Beagle? And sometimes, as you referenced, the cool bug picture doesn't have an obvious or immediate return but ends up being the important piece of data in a different context decades down the line.
This is a field of human endeavor where the economic best-case scenario is probably Bell Labs. And despite having an absurd number of patents and prizes they still couldn't survive within being largely a vanity project for the original Telco monopoly. The ludicrous returns that came from repeatedly revolutionizing electronics and computing couldnt justify their position on a quarterly balance sheet.
The Beagle voyage was a Royal Navy project, and it had a defined purpose: charting. Having a young naturalist onboard was rational because what if you found the next tea plant?
The captain of the ship remained an implacable opponent to Darwin's later theories.
I believe Bell labs was mostly a fig leaf for covering up Bell's legal monopoly (i.e. look, we're doing some good stuff with all the money you're legally obliged to pay us)
there is a degree of risk that is acceptable for business. 90% drug trials fail; if you are inventor, you make a startup, package your pre-trial drugs and associated IP there, then pitch it up and cash out. vcs have money for clinical trials. sometimes you have phase 1 results that you got on your own too. the further it goes in trials the more it is worth; result is the biggest gacha in the town