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this post was submitted on 17 May 2026
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This reveals the plans Europe is currently formulating.
It shows the terms they are willing to accept. A new, optimal scenario for the end of the war has emerged.
50% — 3. The Base Scenario: "Finlandization" Prior to NATO Membership (The New Scenario)
Under this scenario, Ukraine cedes a portion of its territory but retains its sovereignty and strategic orientation. It rebuilds its military, invests in its industrial base, and gradually integrates into Europe—both economically and politically. Formal NATO membership remains out of reach in the near term, and Kyiv may be compelled to exercise a certain degree of strategic restraint so as not to provoke Moscow. However, over time, Ukraine builds up its own deterrence capabilities and deepens its Western alignment—ultimately joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the long run.
Provided that the European economy does not collapse this year, I view this scenario as plausible. However, this scenario fails to account for the domestic political climate within Ukraine, as well as the potential for internal social conflict. One must consider the system itself—founded on corruption and graft—along with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers returning from the front, and the staggering quantity of weaponry that will inevitably remain in private hands. Once the war concludes—and assuming, as I foresee, that the Territorial Recruitment Centers (TCCs) are disbanded—I believe a new Maidan uprising and a new civil war will ensue. Currently, Budanov is making bold, high-profile statements; yet, he remains largely in the shadows, avoiding any rash moves that might tarnish his reputation in the slightest. I am convinced that the West is actively grooming him to become the next President of Ukraine—specifically to fit the scenario outlined above.
Incidentally, the "Georgian Scenario"—to which J.P. Morgan assigns a 30% probability—is also a possibility; however, this would likely only occur if Europe proves unable to cope with the situation or if a major military collapse takes place on the front lines.
The Georgian Scenario. In the absence of both foreign troops and firm security guarantees, Ukraine will experience chronic instability, stunted growth and recovery, a gradual fading of foreign support, and the effective derailment of Western integration—specifically, membership in the EU and NATO. Over time, Kyiv could drift back into Russia’s orbit—politically, economically, and strategically—without a formal capitulation.
The remaining scenarios strike me as unlikely. The "Georgian scenario" is the one that best suits Russia and, in my view, is the most realistic.
I can't see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.
The Kill Zone—it is constantly expanding. This has fundamentally altered the nature of warfare. Victory now belongs to whoever exercises superior control over the Kill Zone. In this context, defense is far easier, as infantry is rendered virtually obsolete.
To seize the strategic initiative, one must establish absolute dominance within the Kill Zone.
We are currently engaged in a war of technology—not a war of men or tanks. You have likely heard about the recent visit from an American entrepreneur who owns a company contracted by the Pentagon to develop and manufacture AI technologies for the defense industry. The Pentagon’s cutting-edge innovations are currently being field-tested in Ukraine. Russia is finding it difficult to keep pace.
And it is precisely this factor that will play the decisive role in the upcoming summer campaign.
I think we'll have to wait and see here. American technology has proven itself to be hype many times in the past, and I wouldn't jump to conclusions here.
The situation here is somewhat more serious.
This company has secured a contract from the Pentagon to manufacture American-made Shahed-style drones equipped with AI. New models are being tested in Ukraine under combat conditions—something we are witnessing right now.
https://www.eadaily.com/ru/news/2026/05/27/iz-ssha-edut-na-ukrainu-kak-na-safari-ispytat-smertonosnye-tehnologii-na-rossii
Currently, Russia and the U.S. are essentially competing in technology. I believe that the U.S. holds the advantage in the use of AI.
Perhaps China, too, might want to test something of its own... ))
However, China has no desire to escalate tensions with the U.S., so it is highly unlikely to do so.
Right now, everyone is anticipating strikes on Kyiv. If this turns out to be yet another "final Chinese warning" from Russia, it will start looking a lot like Trump's style. The Russians need to take action—but at this moment, I simply cannot imagine what that action could be that would actually take everyone by surprise. Putin currently finds himself in a difficult situation. The Europeans are becoming increasingly brazen; they have refused to evacuate their embassies from Kyiv, thereby demonstrating that they have absolutely no fear of Putin.
Ukraine's strategy is clear, and they have staked everything on it: to destabilize Russia internally as much as possible—and as intensely as possible—before the Russian elections this autumn. Their objective is to hold the front lines against any major breakthroughs, while simultaneously inflicting maximum damage through strikes deep inside Russian territory.
What countermeasures Russia will be able to deploy against this—and whether it will be adequately prepared to do so—remains to be seen.
I honestly don't think China cares what US thinks because they have Americans by the balls. The US economy cannot function without Chinese exports. Period. Did you see how Trump was behaving in China? That tells you everything. Not only will China be testing their AI for drones in Ukraine, they will also continue to cut off rare earths supply to the US which is what you need to make components for these drones.
And I expect there will be strikes coming. I also don't understand Ukraine's strategy. It's important to remember that Putin is a moderate, and if he lost then it would almost certainly be somebody much more hard line, and then gloves will come off fully.
We talked a long time ago about bridges across the Dnieper. Something like this should probably exist.
I would still argue that the fact that Russia is not destroying the bridges is a clear indication that they're expecting to keep moving further west.
Indeed, Russia does not seek escalation—a fact evident in the absence of retaliatory strikes against Kyiv for the past eight days.
Ukraine’s drone strategy has recently come to light. Ukraine lacks secure airfields near the border from which to launch drones deep into Russian territory. Consequently, they have adopted Iranian tactics: installing a three-drone launch system onto standard civilian semi-trucks. The truck rapidly moves into position, the crew deploys, and the drones are launched. The problem is that launching 200 drones requires 70 trucks—a quantity that is extremely difficult to conceal. The Russians are now actively hunting down these trucks. It is possible that this campaign has already yielded results. To put it roughly: the day before yesterday saw 200 drones launched; yesterday, 15; and today, 70. Significantly, today—for the first time in a long while—not a single video surfaced showing a target being struck.
Russia must have finally found the key to countering this threat; otherwise, the situation would have continued to deteriorate. We shall see, as events unfold, whether this proves to be true.
amusingly also using trucks as mobile platforms
Such vehicles are highly conspicuous; the AFU uses civilian vehicles to maneuver.
Look—these are new AFU drones manufactured in Europe; judging by the build quality, these weren't cobbled together by amateurs in a garage.
https://youtu.be/wpwvcvVun18
probably Europeans buying from the US and reselling https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/use-of-lucas-drones-in-iran-puts-focus-on-affordable-fast-moving-acquisition/
Oh, I forgot to mention: a friend of mine has a son living in Kyiv, and the latest nighttime raid made a huge impression on him—even more so than his very first night in the city.
Now, on top of that, there’s been a strike on St. Petersburg... It’s terrifying to think what might happen next.
It seems to me that civilians here are going to suffer far more now. These new strikes will impact the civilian population much more heavily.
It gets pretty loud here at night, too... and during the day. Every now and then, through my open window, I hear the buzzing of drones in the distance—and the sound of fire being directed at them.
Unfortunately, I also expect there's going to be a lot more impact on civilians now. Also, with the talk of Budanov replacing Syrskyi it seems like the plan is to transition to doing terrorism instead of conventional warfare. Budanov has no experience commanding anything, but he specializes in special forces and working behind enemy lines. So, if he is put in charge it's clear what the focus is going to be going forward. Also notable is that it appears to be American decision. Blumenthal came to talk to Zelensky, and seems like this came as a directive from the US.
Yes, this is definitely a new round of escalation.
I just recently mentioned this "sweet couple"—read what they're up to. Their rhetoric also tells you how serious this really is.
Look at them... two Orthodox elders, preparing to perform a mass ritual sacrifice.
https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/6/3/686479/
Yes, Trump also had a plan on the table to nuke Iran, but he didn't go through with it. But Russia's situation is more complicated; after defeat, Russia might not exist.
I'm looking at how this Malofeev got rich. It turns out he's doing the same thing my brother-in-law does in M&A.
My God, how awful, it's not hard to imagine what's going on in that idiot's head.
He's absolutely certain that God helped him earn billions. That's 100%! Medieval obscurantism!! He's convinced he's chosen by God.
In the army, they call Syrsky General 200. A friend of mine came to see me recently; someone he knew had been busified and ended up in the "Skelya" unit. He told him some horrific stories. The core of this unit is made up of former prisoners. There's a culture of abuse there. The criminals abuse the busified. That guy told me they're sending them to slaughter. There was a case where they sent 30 people who had been busified, told them to check something and come back... It's very simple. The column was torn to pieces in 15 minutes. Only one man remained, who hid among the corpses for 24 hours to avoid being finished off. Only one man survived... Syrsky personally oversees this "Skelya."
Yes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' tactics have changed recently. The emphasis is solely on deep strikes and stagnation at the front.
For now, Ukraine's offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector has stalled, while the Russians are advancing very slowly, as before.
But the situation at the front has somehow faded into the background.
You've seen that the Americans have again started blaming Putin for his reluctance to make peace. Also, the 400 million package that was previously allocated to Ukraine and frozen is now being transferred to Ukraine from the US.
We've also seen the US change its position. I think this is related to Trump's visit to China.
It's always concerning when you get religious nuts close to the levers of power.
And yeah, the whole busification thing is basically to create single use units. They basically get thrown at the artillery in attempts to take some ground, and they're not expected to survive. I've always been amazed how freely the regime wastes people given the demographics problems.
I told you trip to China didn't go well. They also just published this https://www.state.gov/pax-silica
But, I can't overstate just how fucked Americans are here. China produces both rare earths and silica needed to make chips. They have a monopoly and cannot be replaced. So, there's no trick Americans can pull out of their hat here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKUkgjNaMDE
Hello, Comrade!
It was very loud last night. The drones were buzzing for a very long time.
The entire ring road is blocked off with nets; there's a battle for the logistics arteries. The Ukrainians, just like before, are delivering painful blows every night into Crimea and deeper into Russia. You've probably heard that Crimea is currently experiencing serious fuel shortages. The resort season is being disrupted. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are methodically destroying gas stations on key roads.
Regarding the front line, the Russians broke through at Kostantynivka. The Ukrainians were planning to advance on Kursk or Bryansk again to divert attention from key areas of the front, like last time. They use this tactic when they start having problems at the front.
This breakthrough to Kostantynivka has probably thwarted their plans, because they'll have to redeploy reserves to Kostantynivka.
It feels like the Russians have somehow managed to eliminate the Ukrainians' drone parity. I could be wrong, of course, but we'll see. Kostiantynivka was taken very quickly. This city, if I'm not mistaken, is larger than Pokrovsk. We'll see if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can stabilize the front in this direction.
But still, this doesn't mean anything yet. You've probably heard that Abramovich came to Kyiv. This suggests that Putin isn't interested in continuing the war. And that says a lot. Abramovich is Putin's behind-the-scenes liaison with the West. Because Abramovich lives in London and maintains good relations with everyone. Abramovich was also present at the negotiations in Istanbul. His old business partner, Arakhamia, was also present in Istanbul, but on behalf of Ukraine.
Trump has completely disappeared into oblivion. No one listens to him anymore, neither Europe nor Zelensky. Now they're playing their own game, judging by Zelensky's last visit to Britain, where they looked very pleased, judging by their faces. Zelensky looks more cheerful and upbeat than ever. And Trump's days, in my opinion, are numbered. He won't pull through.
Putin actually addressed that in SPIEF, and he rejected any proposals. It could be Abramovich went there to give an ultimatum. It's very clear to me that Russia isn't going to compromise and isn't looking to end the war right now. I think we might be approaching the end game. The US is fucked in Iran, the war just restarted again, and the US economy is on the brink because they're running out of the reserve and won't be able to stabilize gas prices for long now. Europe is collapsing as well, and nobody in the west cares about Ukraine at this point. It's barely even mentioned in the news here now. It's over.
So far, Lucas has not been spotted in Ukraine.
It has begun—the very thing you and I discussed long ago... The thing I was banned for for 10 days—it has happened.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cx21rjge20po
Here is the move by Russia that could produce the intended effect.
If Russia was intentionally going to do an attack outside Ukraine they would do a bigger one, likely with Oreshnik and on a military target. I think two most likely possibilities here is either a stray drone or Ukraine using a scavenged one to try draw NATO in.
Yes, I agree with you. I was just emotional... )))
Yes, it was probably Ukrainian electronic warfare that deflected the Russian drone, or it was a Ukrainian provocation to draw NATO into the war. Ukraine is also provoking Belarus to join the war. This is all part of Zelenskyy's strategy.
What you and I predicted has begun: a frenzied wave of propaganda has recently erupted in the Ukrainian media. Every morning I open the news and it's filled with headlines like: Russia has almost lost Crimea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have broken through at the front, Russia is panicking, Putin is almost dead, etc. I haven't seen such a wave in a long time. People are talking about the 1991 borders again.
It's been suspiciously quiet here lately. Not even the sirens are wailing.
Kyiv has finally been affected. People are heading down to the metro at night. Everyone's waiting for that blow.
By the way, look, this is Yakutsk, where socialism still reigns... )))
It's as if time stood still there.
https://youtu.be/1V2Y_6c58Oc?t=130
I expect there might be genuine panic that Russia will open up another front from Belarus and threaten Kiev again. And that video was interesting, it's good to see how much of Russia still retains so much Soviet imagery. I think that as people continue becoming disillusioned with capitalism, there is a real possibility of changing course. While I know we disagree on China, I do think that China, Vietnam, and DPRK being major allies and trading partners will help nudge people in the right direction. Now people can travel there easily, see how things are for themselves, and they will ask natural questions after that.
Russia doesn't need this; it would have to redeploy additional troops. The front line there is 1,500 kilometers long. It would take about 300,000 men just to hold it. Nor does Lukashenko need this; Ukraine would simply overwhelm Belarus with drones.
What surprised me was that this memorial was built in 2017. Inscribed on it is an expression of gratitude to the USSR from grateful descendants! This is the first time I’ve ever seen anything like this in Russia. You probably realize now just how much better people living beyond the Urals had it under the USSR—if they still miss it so intensely to this day! Complete devastation reigns there now.
Yes, I can see that the process has begun—right before my very eyes, thoughtful Westerners are starting to see the light!
You have to admit that the war in Ukraine gave it the push it needed, don't you?
There is a big reserve Russia hasn't committed yet, and people have been wondering why for a long time. I'm also not really sure Ukraine can overwhelm anything with drones. While you get pictures and videos with lots of fire, there's no systemic effect from this. The whole drone campaign is just meant to produce propaganda videos to keep the money flowing.
The fact that capitalism made life worse for the majority of people is why I think it will fail once again. And the war is absolutely the catalyst here. It's what severed relations between Russia and Europe forcing Russia to look to Asia. There wouldn't be free travel to DPRK right now if it wasn't for the war, I can tell you that. A lot of people go there and they're nostalgic because they see echos of USSR there. The war also hurts the domestic economy, so people are much more aware of the contradictions as a result. On top of that, the west has discredited itself, and shown it's true face. I don't think there's any going back from that. So, eastern model of development is the one that will be the one that Russia will likely emulate.
As you can see, exactly what we discussed recently is now unfolding.
Russia seeks to avoid escalation and continues to absorb the blows. Zelenskyy and Europe—having crossed yet another "red line"—have dealt an even more painful strike against St. Petersburg. This comes just ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum—an event that will feature delegations from various nations (including the U.S.) and be personally attended by Putin. Right now, the entire city of St. Petersburg is shrouded in smoke, and it is unlikely the fires will be extinguished anytime soon. Furthermore, video footage has captured drones flying directly in from the direction of the Gulf of Finland—most likely launched from airspace over Estonia. By now, everyone is aware of this.
Russia continues to remain silent—but things are only going to get worse.
Yes, you may recall from the recently published transcripts of Putin's conversations with Clinton: Putin stated that he did not want to deal with Iran or North Korea. China, too, would not have been a priority—just as it isn't now.
As I keep saying, it does not make sense for Russia to escalate until elections in France and Germany happen. If Russia escalates against Europe then that will burn any bridges going forward. If the current regimes fall in either France or Germany than the whole European war effort will collapse. Given the growing energy crisis in Europe, it's very likely that there will be change in direction going forward.
Yes, that makes sense.