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this post was submitted on 17 May 2026
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I would still argue that the fact that Russia is not destroying the bridges is a clear indication that they're expecting to keep moving further west.
Indeed, Russia does not seek escalation—a fact evident in the absence of retaliatory strikes against Kyiv for the past eight days.
Ukraine’s drone strategy has recently come to light. Ukraine lacks secure airfields near the border from which to launch drones deep into Russian territory. Consequently, they have adopted Iranian tactics: installing a three-drone launch system onto standard civilian semi-trucks. The truck rapidly moves into position, the crew deploys, and the drones are launched. The problem is that launching 200 drones requires 70 trucks—a quantity that is extremely difficult to conceal. The Russians are now actively hunting down these trucks. It is possible that this campaign has already yielded results. To put it roughly: the day before yesterday saw 200 drones launched; yesterday, 15; and today, 70. Significantly, today—for the first time in a long while—not a single video surfaced showing a target being struck.
Russia must have finally found the key to countering this threat; otherwise, the situation would have continued to deteriorate. We shall see, as events unfold, whether this proves to be true.
amusingly also using trucks as mobile platforms
Such vehicles are highly conspicuous; the AFU uses civilian vehicles to maneuver.
Look—these are new AFU drones manufactured in Europe; judging by the build quality, these weren't cobbled together by amateurs in a garage.
https://youtu.be/wpwvcvVun18
probably Europeans buying from the US and reselling https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/use-of-lucas-drones-in-iran-puts-focus-on-affordable-fast-moving-acquisition/
Oh, I forgot to mention: a friend of mine has a son living in Kyiv, and the latest nighttime raid made a huge impression on him—even more so than his very first night in the city.
Now, on top of that, there’s been a strike on St. Petersburg... It’s terrifying to think what might happen next.
It seems to me that civilians here are going to suffer far more now. These new strikes will impact the civilian population much more heavily.
It gets pretty loud here at night, too... and during the day. Every now and then, through my open window, I hear the buzzing of drones in the distance—and the sound of fire being directed at them.
Unfortunately, I also expect there's going to be a lot more impact on civilians now. Also, with the talk of Budanov replacing Syrskyi it seems like the plan is to transition to doing terrorism instead of conventional warfare. Budanov has no experience commanding anything, but he specializes in special forces and working behind enemy lines. So, if he is put in charge it's clear what the focus is going to be going forward. Also notable is that it appears to be American decision. Blumenthal came to talk to Zelensky, and seems like this came as a directive from the US.
Yes, this is definitely a new round of escalation.
I just recently mentioned this "sweet couple"—read what they're up to. Their rhetoric also tells you how serious this really is.
Look at them... two Orthodox elders, preparing to perform a mass ritual sacrifice.
https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/6/3/686479/
Yes, Trump also had a plan on the table to nuke Iran, but he didn't go through with it. But Russia's situation is more complicated; after defeat, Russia might not exist.
I'm looking at how this Malofeev got rich. It turns out he's doing the same thing my brother-in-law does in M&A.
My God, how awful, it's not hard to imagine what's going on in that idiot's head.
He's absolutely certain that God helped him earn billions. That's 100%! Medieval obscurantism!! He's convinced he's chosen by God.
In the army, they call Syrsky General 200. A friend of mine came to see me recently; someone he knew had been busified and ended up in the "Skelya" unit. He told him some horrific stories. The core of this unit is made up of former prisoners. There's a culture of abuse there. The criminals abuse the busified. That guy told me they're sending them to slaughter. There was a case where they sent 30 people who had been busified, told them to check something and come back... It's very simple. The column was torn to pieces in 15 minutes. Only one man remained, who hid among the corpses for 24 hours to avoid being finished off. Only one man survived... Syrsky personally oversees this "Skelya."
Yes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' tactics have changed recently. The emphasis is solely on deep strikes and stagnation at the front.
For now, Ukraine's offensive in the Zaporizhzhia sector has stalled, while the Russians are advancing very slowly, as before.
But the situation at the front has somehow faded into the background.
You've seen that the Americans have again started blaming Putin for his reluctance to make peace. Also, the 400 million package that was previously allocated to Ukraine and frozen is now being transferred to Ukraine from the US.
We've also seen the US change its position. I think this is related to Trump's visit to China.
It's always concerning when you get religious nuts close to the levers of power.
And yeah, the whole busification thing is basically to create single use units. They basically get thrown at the artillery in attempts to take some ground, and they're not expected to survive. I've always been amazed how freely the regime wastes people given the demographics problems.
I told you trip to China didn't go well. They also just published this https://www.state.gov/pax-silica
But, I can't overstate just how fucked Americans are here. China produces both rare earths and silica needed to make chips. They have a monopoly and cannot be replaced. So, there's no trick Americans can pull out of their hat here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKUkgjNaMDE
Hello, Comrade!
It was very loud last night. The drones were buzzing for a very long time.
The entire ring road is blocked off with nets; there's a battle for the logistics arteries. The Ukrainians, just like before, are delivering painful blows every night into Crimea and deeper into Russia. You've probably heard that Crimea is currently experiencing serious fuel shortages. The resort season is being disrupted. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians are methodically destroying gas stations on key roads.
Regarding the front line, the Russians broke through at Kostantynivka. The Ukrainians were planning to advance on Kursk or Bryansk again to divert attention from key areas of the front, like last time. They use this tactic when they start having problems at the front.
This breakthrough to Kostantynivka has probably thwarted their plans, because they'll have to redeploy reserves to Kostantynivka.
It feels like the Russians have somehow managed to eliminate the Ukrainians' drone parity. I could be wrong, of course, but we'll see. Kostiantynivka was taken very quickly. This city, if I'm not mistaken, is larger than Pokrovsk. We'll see if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can stabilize the front in this direction.
But still, this doesn't mean anything yet. You've probably heard that Abramovich came to Kyiv. This suggests that Putin isn't interested in continuing the war. And that says a lot. Abramovich is Putin's behind-the-scenes liaison with the West. Because Abramovich lives in London and maintains good relations with everyone. Abramovich was also present at the negotiations in Istanbul. His old business partner, Arakhamia, was also present in Istanbul, but on behalf of Ukraine.
Trump has completely disappeared into oblivion. No one listens to him anymore, neither Europe nor Zelensky. Now they're playing their own game, judging by Zelensky's last visit to Britain, where they looked very pleased, judging by their faces. Zelensky looks more cheerful and upbeat than ever. And Trump's days, in my opinion, are numbered. He won't pull through.
Putin actually addressed that in SPIEF, and he rejected any proposals. It could be Abramovich went there to give an ultimatum. It's very clear to me that Russia isn't going to compromise and isn't looking to end the war right now. I think we might be approaching the end game. The US is fucked in Iran, the war just restarted again, and the US economy is on the brink because they're running out of the reserve and won't be able to stabilize gas prices for long now. Europe is collapsing as well, and nobody in the west cares about Ukraine at this point. It's barely even mentioned in the news here now. It's over.
So far, Lucas has not been spotted in Ukraine.