here's the link: https://fortune.com/2026/04/26/prediction-markets-insider-trading-illegal-kalshi-polymarket-robin-hanson-economist/

here's some selected text so you don't need to use it:

“You want them trading,” Hanson, a professor at George Mason University who helped develop the market scoring rule used by many prediction markets, said of insiders. “You want the most accurate prices. That’s pretty clear. The purpose of the market is to inform decisions.”

For a swath of consumers, particularly younger and male, prediction markets are an attractive arbitrage opportunity. For many policymakers, they’re a troubling scourge, literally equivalent to “gambling.”

“Many people are going to say prediction markets are exploiting people,” [Hanson] said. “But that’s what ordinary financial markets do in exactly the same way.”

Hanson thinks insider trading is “rampant” in traditional financial markets. When a company makes a major announcement, he notes, half the move happens before the news is public, and half of that is due to insider trading, with the rest driven by traders who spot it and pile in. The SEC prosecutes only a sliver of those trades.

His suggested test: any legislation that would bar government employees from trading on prediction markets should, by the same logic, bar them from talking to reporters.

“It’s the idea that certain elites should be in charge of key information aggregation, and ordinary people in these markets should just not be there,” Hanson said. “That’s sort of an elitist attitude that I just have to reject.”

“When you sit down at a poker table, you’re supposed to look around and find the fool,” he said. “If you don’t see the fool at the table, you should get up and go, because it’s you.”

In his view, individuals should recognize their odds and get out. But if they don’t, he doesn’t see that as more of a scandal than an artist starving to pursue their dreams, or one of his friends going into debt because he bought too many jet skis. The modern age allows for a lot of risk-taking, including letting young people choose whom to date, Hanson pointed out.