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this post was submitted on 29 Mar 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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While I tend to think Yudkowsky is sincere, some things like his prediction market for P(doom) are hard to square with that https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r (launched June 2023, will resolve N/A on 1 January 2027 if the world has not ended yet. It has not moved much since 1 January 2024)
Does it still count if it turns out that Trump invading iran was based on Claude or ChatJippity advice and things escalate to global thermonuclear war? AI technically wiped out humanity because our dumb leaders were dumb enought to trust it?
On the one hand, Yud's vision of AI doomsday is specifically "AI turns sentient/superintelligent and kills us all because reasons", not "Humanity wipes itself out because they trusted lying machines".
On the other hand, the absence of sentience/superintelligence hasn't stopped AI from causing untold damage anyways, as the past two to three years can attest.