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“Suppose you have a model that assigns itself a 72 percent chance of being conscious,” Douthat began. “Would you believe it?”

Amodei called it a “really hard” question to answer, but hesitated to give a yes or no answer.

Be nice to the stochastic parrots, folks.

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[-] happybadger@hexbear.net 42 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago)

My god, 72%. I ran the numbers on an expensive calculator and that's almost 73%.

[-] BodyBySisyphus@hexbear.net 28 points 14 hours ago

Will McCaskill became a generational intellectual powerhouse when he discovered you could just put arbitrary probabilities on shit and no one would call you on it, and now he's inspiring imitators.

[-] happybadger@hexbear.net 8 points 14 hours ago

Arbitrary?! I'm a human and there's only a 76% chance of me being conscious.

[-] BodyBySisyphus@hexbear.net 1 points 37 seconds ago

Prolly closer to 66% chance if you're getting the standard level of sleep but the important part is that it's readily predictable, rather than, say, there being uncountable quadrillions of simulated space people in the distant future.

this post was submitted on 17 Feb 2026
88 points (100.0% liked)

Slop.

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