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this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2026
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Taiwan will scuttle their microchip fabs before letting China take over. Unless China have infiltrated and taken over the fabs and secured them from destruction, there's far less economic value in invading Taiwan.
Chinas chip fabrication is advancing quickly. So assuming Taiwan remains strong and doesn't get infiltrated, we won't see an invasion until China is confident it doesn't need Taiwanese chips for its own technology. Then, it'll just be about politics and having more of the coast line and trade routes secured, not the fabs.
I reckon there's at least a few more years before they will take Taiwan by force. Time for international relationships to change for the better...
So you're telling me that China can stop US defence production by doing this one little trick? 🤔
Unlike for consumer applications, military systems don't need cutting edge 2nm processes. Most military systems use 28nm - 90nm processes, which are more reliable, and which the US can comfortably supply domestically.
Interesting. Didn't think of the military applications. I think both countries care about cutting edge technology markets in general, and not creating economic chaos by shutting down TSMC. But once TSMC in Taiwan itself is no longer essential, all bets are off. Given both US and China want to get away from relying on TSMC, it's only a matter of time.
With the US currently only caring about money and power, all interest in Taiwan's defence will evaporate. I hope for Taiwan's sake politics change before that day comes.
Micron is a US company, but most R&D is done in Taiwan. As long as the US depends on Taiwan education pipeline and propensity for following SOP to the T for producing chips, the Arizona fabs aren't a deal-breaker wrt Silicon Shield.
True, good points.
Not included: the rare-earth minerals, which are a market almost entirely cornered by the same China. And facilities to process those same rare earth minerals, which are impossible to simply build overnight.
Original comment was talking about China attacking Taiwan to suffocate the US from the supply of chips for its military. China can unilaterally choke the US of rare earths without invading Taiwan
The talent will still be there. And the US will lose their supply of chips that make them what they are today. The issue was that the people would just leave and come to the US if they invaded. But now that America is a dictatorship what would be the point? They are screwed either way so now they will probably just make good chips for China.
It looks like China is only a couple years away from building completely in-country fabs competitive with Taiwan. If that's the case, then Taiwan using the economic value of their microchip fabs as a defense may very soon come to an end.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manhattan-project-rival-west-ai-chips-2025-12-17/
The biggest defense for Taiwan is the fact that it's an island. I don't thing that's going to change any time soon.
Ukraine's Sea Baby drones have been remarkably effective in the Black Sea. I don't see why they wouldn't be effective in the Taiwan Straight and I feel like Taiwan has the capability of mass producing similar drone boats.
Yes China has massive troop counts, but it doesn't amount to much if those numbers can't get across the Strait.
The US has the off switch for all their chip manufacturing