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GPT-5: Overdue, overhyped and underwhelming. And that’s not the worst of it.
(garymarcus.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 10 Aug 2025
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Technology
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Seemed a likely outcome. On the way to being late, there were stories where basically they spent ungodly amounts of money in an attempt and then scrapped it because it wasn't actually any better. And that this happened multiple times.
So if they were truly stuck, what to do? They could admit they were stuck, and watch the economic collapse as investors realize they were mistaken on how far along the technology curve things were, or they could market the hell out of GPT-5 and pretend it's amazing and hope enough suckers and latecomers to LLM buy into that narrative that it carries through. Like Sam Altman acting 'scared' of what GPT-5 is going to be, "what have we done?" in a very melodramatic way like he's Oppenheimer or something, likening it to the Death Star (all in all, a very 'wtf' situation, if it were really as dangerous as you say, you seem awfully eager to get it going).
So we have an incremental iteration with some good, some bad, and perhaps overall better, but in the context of the ungodly investment in the LLM sector, it's way way less than would should reasonably expect.
Sounds like the bubble could burst soon. It'll be an epic collapse if it happens.
Gods I hope so.
No, the general economy is pretty poor right now, the AI collapse will cost lots of jobs, incomes and lives. A collapse doesn’t just affect that industry. It spreads and affects finance and lending globally.
🤞
It's been obvious, since early 2025, that they are chasing the next step change but not getting any closer to it. OpenAI is in a catastrophic financial position and it's hard to imagine a scenario where it gets any better.
Ironically, I think only AGI could get them out of this pickle, but even they are starting to realize it's not around the corner.
AGI might be just around the corner, or it might be indefinitely far off, but either way I don't think "just more LLM" is going to get there, and that seems to be all the AI industry is really equipped to handle at the moment.
Ironically, getting to AGI might take a bubble pop to stop the current LLM architectures from just sucking up all the resources to let other approaches breathe a little.
More practically, I'd have expected to see more engaged robotics, but it seems all the money is being spent on pure online AI approaches.
Seriously. Neural networks can approximate literally any function, and the lumbering giants have all decided 'what's the next word?' is the only function worth pursuing.
It'd take a sliver of their current budget to try starting over like it's 2020. Compare with benchmarks that now look quaint. Enjoy some wisdom where previously they could only guess. Buuut nope: all LLM, all the time, and big big big.
They do this shit every release lmao.
I remember then GPT 4(? 3?) was close to release there were some very "organic" totally not paid for articles about GPT employees being afraid of the new model loooool.
I can't wait for this shitty bubble to burst and having the CS job market recover.
Oh the CS job market may just be more persistently toast. Yes there have been layoffs attributed to AI, however I think a lot of those businesses were kind of itching to do those layoffs anyway. There was way overhiring in the ~~security~~ sector in general, plus when the AI bubble pops it'll drag the test if the tech sector with it.
I'm a pentester for a company that exclusively pentests mature corps.
They are not spending jack shit on security in most cases.
If I find publicly facing critical IDORs in your 100+ year old company, you clearly need to get your shit together.
Keyboard substituted the wrong word, fixed.
A collapse will lead to job losses in the short term.
The longer it is dragged out the more jobs will be lost when the bubble bursts.
True, but I still don't hope for a collapse. A soft landing is better, if unlikely.
There is zero chance of a soft landing.
There are degrees of collapse too. I don't mind if all the billionaires and corporations are left holding the bag. I am concerned that we have a collapse of the stock market and lost jobs and recession globally.
Please don't get my hopes up 😭