I was prompted to ask this question by listening to Season 3 of the Blowback podcast (fantastic podcast btw, I can’t believe I started listening to it until now), which is focused on the Korean War. One thing that stuck out to me was how reluctant Stalin was to give the DPRK Soviet support; he was possibly even willing to let the American occupiers be neighbors with the USSR if it meant he didn’t have to fight the US. He seemed to genuinely think he could engage in compromise with America.
This Western-friendly behavior from Stalin’s government wasn’t particularly new either. Prior to WWII, he reached out to the Brits/French/US to form a pact against Hitler, was rejected, and of course the Munich agreement followed and the Soviets settled with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
It is said Stalin greatly admired Roosevelt, and apparently even Churchill. After WWII, he and the US were able to agree on Austria being a neutral state, and Stalin really wanted a similarly neutral, unified Germany as well (this of course, the US would reject).
So that’s Stalin—genuinely seemed to think the West would act in good faith, but continuously got burned.
Fast-forward to the ‘90s, when much of the Russian/Soviet populace (especially Gorbachev) thought they too would get a liberalized, social-democracy with strong welfare and cheap commodities like Western Europe. Instead, Western financiers gutted their country and basically started the apocalypse until Putin comes along and stabilizes things.
But then Putin asks Bill Clinton if they can join NATO, gets burned again. Even several years ago, the Russians seemed to think the West would uphold their end of the Minsk 2 agreement, and now we have Merkel on tape saying that was never going to be the case. Only with the invasion of Ukraine does it seem like Russia has finally gotten the memo that the West will never act towards them in good faith (and even then, I’m not sure if that sentiment is resolute).
Compare this with other independent non-Western nations, such as China, the DPRK, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Yemen, Burkina Faso under Traoré, etc. These nations exist on a spectrum, with the DPRK or Yemen being openly hostile towards NATO while China is eager to do business (but doesn’t seem to be under any illusion that it will get to join The Big Club).
So TLDR: it seems to me the Soviets/Russians have constantly engaged with the West in good faith, but always get burned. This stands in contrast to other independent countries which have always seemed much more cynical. Is it due to their relative proximity to whiteness? A lack of direct colonization? Why have the Russians constantly thought they would ever be considered equal partners with the West?
Thanks for the response! You bring up a lot of good points.
With regards to the beginning of the Cold War, I think Stalin’s conservative approach does make sense from the perspective you laid out; the Soviets had just lost >25 million people and much of their industry.
With respect to post-Soviet Russia, yeah I think they’re truly stuck between a rock and a hard place. They don’t want to capitulate to the west but still understandably want broader peace. To be honest, if I was in Putin’s shoes I don’t really know what I’d do. Be socialist again? Lol.
Russia is such an interesting country to me because of this weird space they occupy where they’re like a sort of Schrödinger’s European. Simultaneously Western and not. I do wish the Russian left could become a more meaningful force in politics there.
I have to admit if I were in Putin's shoes I'd have this terrible temptation to gamble. The west has been actively attacking them and Russia has held their hands from hitting them directly and in his shoes I have to say I'd be awfully tempted with them saying they're going to go to war against me anyways in the near future, re-arming themselves, rebuilding arms industry and currently depleted in weapons because they sent them all to Ukraine to start hitting them with Oreshniks while they're weak to dissuade them, like strike their intelligence centers and kill their spies aiding Ukraine as valid combatants. It could easily lead to nuclear war or a broader war but timidity so far hasn't worked out great so maybe it's time to go all out, sucker punch them in the face and hover that finger above the big red nuke button and act deranged, bluff them, dare them to continue escalating against you and get nuked. Maybe unwise but seeing how the west intimidated Stalin into not acting and how things have gone so far to backing down to the west, I just don't know if at this point in history it makes sense to not try to finally knock the smirk off their face.