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Secret figures show Liberal party’s ageing membership in freefall in NSW and Victoria
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 31 May 2025
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I'm a bit iffy on this, all this proclaiming the liberal party is dead after 1 admittedly bad result
I feel like a similar article about low membership of Labor could have been written about after 2013:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Australian_federal_election#Result_commentary
Maybe because I'm old and the liberals have been in power 2/3rds of my life that I just refuse to believe if they put someone who isn't a complete muffin in charge they won't claw back a large amount of seats
I have little doubt they'll come back eventually, but it's going to require some serious soul searching on their part first. After 2013 Labor improved their leadership process which is what led to the internal instability that led to their incredible unpopularity back then.
Right now, the Liberals' problem seems to be a trend away from the so-called "sensible centre" into embracing extreme-right Trumpian politics. This is caused in part by the more moderate Liberals losing their seats, giving the moderates no leverage in the party room. And also by their party preselection process being overrun by Sky After Dark fans. They need to find a way to re-embrace the former "wets" and win back the voters who abandoned them for the teals. That requires them to win back the trust of women and to begin to take climate change seriously for once.
A different option could be for the teals to be folded into the Coalition itself. Turnbull suggested that as a possibility in a recent interview, if the teals were to form into a party which could then negotiate with the Liberals and Nationals into a broader Coalition.
But without a doubt, something will change. Whether it takes them until 2028 or 2031 or longer, the Liberals in some form are unlikely to go away for good.
I can't see them coming back. They're hemmed in. The further right they move, the less palatable they are to the majority of Australians. They can't go left without alienating their base.
They also don't have a leader to drag them kicking and screaming through the necessary process to change. Nor do they have the ability to recruit one young enough to make it worthwhile. It will be a long and painful exercise.
Right now, I fully expect them to continue along their rightward path. As a result, I can see them reduced to One Nation numbers within a couple of electoral cycles, which is still more than the Nats get. At some point, they'll likely splinter.